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Game Recap
DET1
UTA4
UTA beat DET 4-1, and the chances backed it up: 4.27 expected goals to 3.34. N. Schmaltz led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). N. Schmaltz had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.3. K. Vejmelka stopped 29 of 30.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| UTA | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
- 1st 0:57UTAS. Durzi0.01 xG
- 1st 8:11UTAN. SchmaltzPP0.27 xG
- 3rd 4:40UTAD. Guenther0.16 xG
- 3rd 15:52DETD. LarkinPP0.31 xG
- 3rd 17:42UTAC. KellerEN0.62 xG
Team Stats
DETUTA
30Shots on goal25
3.34Expected goals4.27
70Shot attempts46
225v5 shots on goal18
1/4Power play1/3
24Hits15
5Blocked shots15
11Penalty minutes13
10Giveaways9
4Takeaways3
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
DET 3.34 xGUTA 4.27 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
DET Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Larkin | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 20:14 | 6:10 |
| J. van Riemsdyk | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:05 | 2:36 |
| P. Kane | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 19:41 | 6:18 |
| A. DeBrincat | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 19:29 | 6:09 |
| L. Raymond | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:20 | 6:17 |
| A. Copp | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 17:01 | 1:05 |
| M. Kasper | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:06 | 0:55 |
| M. Appleton | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:24 | 0:19 |
| J. Compher | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:05 | 0:16 |
| E. Finnie | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:35 | 0:10 |
| M. Rasmussen | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:44 | 0:00 |
| E. Soderblom | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:53 | 0:00 |
| M. Seider | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 30:34 | 6:17 |
| A. Johansson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 22:21 | 0:54 |
| J. Bernard-Docker | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:54 | 0:00 |
| B. Chiarot | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 16:50 | 0:18 |
| A. Sandin-Pellikka | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 16:36 | 1:13 |
| T. Hamonic | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 9:23 | 0:09 |
UTA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Schmaltz | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 21:10 | 3:40 |
| C. Keller | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 16:23 | 3:53 |
| L. Crouse | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 19:30 | 1:23 |
| D. Guenther | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 2 | 17:38 | 3:52 |
| B. Hayton | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16:19 | 3:50 |
| J. McBain | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 16:41 | 1:25 |
| K. Stenlund | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:49 | 0:00 |
| J. Peterka | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:48 | 1:26 |
| M. Carcone | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 12:34 | 1:38 |
| K. Yamamoto | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:45 | 0:00 |
| L. O'Brien | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:10 | 0:00 |
| B. Tanev | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 7:13 | 0:00 |
| S. Durzi | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 19:46 | 1:33 |
| M. Sergachev | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 25:02 | 3:40 |
| I. Cole | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | +2 | 0 | 20:00 | 0:00 |
| J. Marino | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:26 | 0:05 |
| N. Schmidt | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 17:30 | 0:05 |
| N. DeSimone | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 14:47 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Vejmelka | 30 | 29 | 1 | .967 | 59:58 | Win |
| V. Vanecek | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
DET
Line 1A. Copp14:14P. Kane12:02A. DeBrincat11:54
Line 2D. Larkin11:51L. Raymond11:25M. Kasper12:15
Line 3J. Compher11:28E. Finnie11:41M. Appleton11:00
Line 4M. Rasmussen9:22E. Soderblom9:51J. Riemsdyk10:11
Pair 1J. Bernard-Docker14:47M. Seider20:04
Pair 2B. Chiarot15:06A. Sandin-Pellikka15:16
Pair 3T. Hamonic8:11A. Johansson18:12
UTA
Line 1N. Schmaltz14:35L. Crouse12:15C. Keller11:57
Line 2K. Yamamoto11:45J. Peterka13:20B. Hayton11:47
Line 3J. McBain12:14M. Carcone10:51D. Guenther13:00
Line 4L. O'Brien8:10K. Stenlund9:29B. Tanev7:13
Pair 1N. Schmidt15:52J. Marino16:30
Pair 2S. Durzi17:54M. Sergachev14:19
Pair 3I. Cole12:57N. DeSimone14:42
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | DET 3.0, UTA 3.3 | DET 1, UTA 4 |
| Total goals | 6.3 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | DET 25.9, UTA 27.7 | DET 30, UTA 25 |
| Win chance | UTA 55% | UTA won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET A. DeBrincat | 3.0 | 2 | 0.80 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| UTA D. Guenther | 2.8 | 4 | 0.79 | 1 | 30% | 1 |
| DET D. Larkin | 2.6 | 2 | 0.80 | 1 | 31% | 1 |
| UTA C. Keller | 2.4 | 3 | 0.95 | 2 | 30% | 1 |
| UTA N. Schmaltz | 2.3 | 6 | 0.88 | 2 | 29% | 1 |
| DET P. Kane | 2.1 | 4 | 0.68 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| DET M. Seider | 2.0 | 0 | 0.51 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| UTA J. Peterka | 2.0 | 0 | 0.71 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| UTA L. Crouse | 1.9 | 2 | 0.54 | 1 | 26% | 0 |
| UTA M. Sergachev | 1.9 | 0 | 0.70 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| UTA B. Hayton | 1.9 | 3 | 0.50 | 1 | 18% | 0 |
| DET L. Raymond | 1.8 | 5 | 0.78 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| UTA M. Carcone | 1.8 | 0 | 0.43 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| DET M. Kasper | 1.7 | 4 | 0.38 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| UTA S. Durzi | 1.5 | 2 | 0.44 | 1 | 9% | 1 |
| DET A. Copp | 1.5 | 2 | 0.53 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| UTA J. McBain | 1.4 | 2 | 0.39 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| DET J. Riemsdyk | 1.3 | 1 | 0.42 | 1 | 17% | 0 |
| DET B. Chiarot | 1.2 | 2 | 0.18 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| DET J. Compher | 1.1 | 0 | 0.35 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| UTA K. Stenlund | 1.1 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| UTA N. Schmidt | 1.1 | 0 | 0.32 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| UTA K. Yamamoto | 1.0 | 1 | 0.35 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| DET M. Rasmussen | 1.0 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| DET E. Soderblom | 1.0 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| DET M. Appleton | 1.0 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| DET E. Finnie | 1.0 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| DET T. Hamonic | 0.9 | 0 | 0.12 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| UTA N. DeSimone | 0.9 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| UTA L. O'Brien | 0.9 | 1 | 0.14 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| DET A. Sandin-Pellikka | 0.9 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| DET A. Johansson | 0.8 | 2 | 0.15 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| DET J. Bernard-Docker | 0.8 | 3 | 0.16 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| UTA J. Marino | 0.8 | 1 | 0.41 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| UTA I. Cole | 0.8 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| UTA B. Tanev | 0.7 | 0 | 0.14 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.