Game Recap: DET 3, VGK 6, March 22, 2025

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Game Recap

DET3

FinalSat, Mar 22, 2025Every game that night

VGK6

VGK beat DET 6-3, and the chances backed it up: 4.06 expected goals to 2.36. J. Eichel led the way with 4 points (1 G, 3 A). B. Chiarot had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.2. A. Hill stopped 28 of 31.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
DET	1	1	1	3
VGK	3	2	1	6

1st 4:47DETL. RaymondPP0.08 xG
1st 11:47VGKT. HertlPP0.17 xG
1st 16:32VGKT. Hertl0.09 xG
1st 19:57VGKN. Roy0.15 xG
2nd 1:49DETP. KanePP0.24 xG
2nd 7:07VGKM. Stone0.29 xG
2nd 8:02VGKT. HertlPP0.16 xG
3rd 9:36DETA. DeBrincat0.02 xG
3rd 17:59VGKJ. EichelEN0.43 xG

Team Stats

DETVGK

31Shots on goal36

2.36Expected goals4.06

67Shot attempts65

265v5 shots on goal30

2/2Power play2/2

19Hits20

15Blocked shots18

14Penalty minutes14

14Giveaways19

2Takeaways9

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

DET 2.36 xGVGK 4.06 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

DET31 on goal, 3 scored

VGK35 on goal, 6 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

DET Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
P. Kane	RW	1	2	3	4	0	0	+1	0	18:21	1:53
D. Larkin	C	0	2	2	3	0	1	-1	0	19:26	1:53
A. DeBrincat	RW	1	0	1	3	0	0	+1	0	19:12	1:53
L. Raymond	LW	1	0	1	1	0	0	-1	0	18:11	1:53
M. Kasper	C	0	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	17:05	0:00
V. Tarasenko	RW	0	0	0	2	3	0	-3	0	16:14	0:00
M. Rasmussen	C	0	0	0	3	0	1	-1	0	15:28	0:00
J. Compher	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-3	0	14:54	0:00
C. Smith	C	0	0	0	2	3	5	0	0	14:44	0:00
J. Berggren	RW	0	0	0	2	2	0	-3	2	11:11	0:00
T. Motte	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	10:29	0:00
A. Watson	LW	0	0	0	1	4	0	-1	0	8:53	0:00
S. Edvinsson	D	0	1	1	1	0	3	-1	0	24:27	0:00
M. Seider	D	0	1	1	3	0	1	-2	2	19:55	1:53
J. Holl	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	21:28	0:00
B. Chiarot	D	0	0	0	4	0	0	-2	10	20:23	0:00
A. Johansson	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	18:30	0:00
W. Lagesson	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	11:38	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Talbot	35	30	5	.857	58:11	Loss
A. Lyon	0	0	0	–	0:00

VGK Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Eichel	C	1	3	4	2	0	1	+3	0	17:24	1:20
M. Stone	RW	1	2	3	3	2	1	+2	2	17:36	1:20
T. Hertl	C	3	0	3	4	1	1	0	0	16:30	1:20
I. Barbashev	LW	0	2	2	2	0	0	+3	0	15:25	0:00
N. Roy	C	1	0	1	4	2	0	+1	0	12:00	0:00
R. Smith	RW	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	16:56	0:00
B. Howden	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	16:00	0:00
P. Dorofeyev	RW	0	0	0	3	0	3	0	0	15:54	1:20
W. Karlsson	C	0	0	0	1	3	1	0	0	15:41	0:00
B. Saad	LW	0	0	0	4	0	1	0	0	14:51	0:00
T. Pearson	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	10:32	0:00
K. Kolesar	RW	0	0	0	2	4	0	0	0	10:30	0:00
N. Hanifin	D	0	1	1	2	0	2	+2	0	22:20	1:20
B. McNabb	D	0	1	1	1	1	2	+2	0	21:13	0:00
A. Pietrangelo	D	0	1	1	1	2	0	+1	0	20:11	0:00
K. Korczak	D	0	1	1	1	1	2	+2	0	18:11	0:00
Z. Whitecloud	D	0	0	0	3	1	2	0	10	18:54	0:00
N. Hague	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	-1	0	17:59	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Hill	31	28	3	.903	60:00	Win
I. Samsonov	0	0	0	–	0:00

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	DET 2.8, VGK 3.5	DET 3, VGK 6
Total goals	6.3	9
Shots on goal	DET 26.2, VGK 30.1	DET 31, VGK 36
Win chance	VGK 61%	VGK won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
VGK J. Eichel	2.9	2	1.08	4	31%	1
DET D. Larkin	2.7	3	0.80	2	30%	0
DET A. DeBrincat	2.6	3	0.72	1	27%	1
VGK P. Dorofeyev	2.6	3	0.67	0	32%	0
DET P. Kane	2.4	4	0.75	3	23%	1
VGK W. Karlsson	2.1	1	0.67	0	24%	0
DET L. Raymond	2.1	1	0.79	1	25%	1
VGK T. Hertl	2.0	4	0.71	3	26%	3
VGK M. Stone	1.9	3	0.95	3	28%	1
VGK N. Hanifin	1.9	2	0.57	1	12%	0
DET M. Kasper	1.7	0	0.43	0	18%	0
VGK A. Pietrangelo	1.7	1	0.47	1	8%	0
VGK B. Saad	1.7	4	0.51	0	23%	0
DET V. Tarasenko	1.7	2	0.47	0	20%	0
DET M. Seider	1.7	3	0.45	1	8%	0
VGK R. Smith	1.5	2	0.53	0	19%	0
VGK I. Barbashev	1.4	2	0.67	2	24%	0
DET C. Smith	1.4	2	0.28	0	13%	0
VGK T. Pearson	1.4	0	0.35	0	14%	0
VGK B. Howden	1.4	0	0.43	0	19%	0
VGK N. Roy	1.4	4	0.50	1	18%	1
VGK N. Hague	1.3	1	0.21	0	6%	0
DET B. Chiarot	1.2	4	0.19	0	6%	0
DET J. Compher	1.2	0	0.42	0	15%	0
DET J. Berggren	1.1	2	0.33	0	15%	0
VGK K. Kolesar	1.1	2	0.38	0	15%	0
DET M. Rasmussen	1.1	3	0.28	0	12%	0
VGK Z. Whitecloud	1.1	3	0.27	0	8%	0
VGK B. McNabb	1.0	1	0.29	1	5%	0
DET T. Motte	1.0	0	0.15	0	8%	0
VGK K. Korczak	0.9	1	0.26	1	3%	0
DET S. Edvinsson	0.8	1	0.28	1	8%	0
DET A. Johansson	0.7	2	0.18	0	5%	0
DET A. Watson	0.7	1	0.14	0	9%	0
DET W. Lagesson	0.7	0	0.12	0	2%	0
DET J. Holl	0.5	0	0.12	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.