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Game Recap
DET0
VGK1
VGK beat DET 1-0, and the chances backed it up: 4.34 expected goals to 1.87. VGK outshot DET 34 to 24. B. Saad had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 1.5. A. Schmid stopped 24 of 24.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| VGK | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
- 2nd 13:45VGKI. Barbashev0.26 xG
Team Stats
DETVGK
24Shots on goal34
1.87Expected goals4.34
63Shot attempts63
235v5 shots on goal31
0/2Power play0/1
10Hits21
13Blocked shots17
2Penalty minutes4
15Giveaways14
0Takeaways3
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
DET 1.87 xGVGK 4.34 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
DET Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Larkin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 20:21 | 2:16 |
| L. Raymond | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 20:18 | 2:15 |
| E. Finnie | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 20:11 | 2:21 |
| A. DeBrincat | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:19 | 2:17 |
| J. Compher | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:58 | 0:31 |
| M. Kasper | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:56 | 0:32 |
| A. Copp | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:53 | 0:08 |
| J. van Riemsdyk | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:14 | 0:26 |
| J. Berggren | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:09 | 0:30 |
| M. Appleton | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:07 | 0:00 |
| E. Soderblom | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:12 | 0:08 |
| M. Rasmussen | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:21 | 0:08 |
| M. Seider | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 27:22 | 2:16 |
| S. Edvinsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 23:04 | 0:00 |
| B. Chiarot | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 18:24 | 0:08 |
| A. Sandin-Pellikka | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:30 | 0:39 |
| A. Johansson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:47 | 0:00 |
| T. Hamonic | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 13:59 | 0:00 |
VGK Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Saad | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:53 | 0:00 |
| I. Barbashev | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:48 | 0:00 |
| W. Karlsson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:45 | 0:00 |
| J. Eichel | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 18:17 | 0:55 |
| M. Marner | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:48 | 0:55 |
| B. Howden | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:19 | 0:00 |
| P. Dorofeyev | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:18 | 0:35 |
| R. Smith | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:53 | 0:20 |
| T. Hertl | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:26 | 0:52 |
| C. Sissons | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8:32 | 0:00 |
| K. Kolesar | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:03 | 0:00 |
| C. Reinhardt | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:00 | 0:00 |
| J. Lauzon | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | +1 | 0 | 15:03 | 0:00 |
| S. Theodore | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22:53 | 0:55 |
| N. Hanifin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22:40 | 0:00 |
| B. McNabb | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 22:14 | 0:00 |
| Z. Whitecloud | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 21:45 | 0:03 |
| K. Korczak | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 14:23 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Schmid | 24 | 24 | 0 | 1.000 | 60:00 | Win |
| C. Lindbom | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
DET
Line 1L. Raymond16:04E. Finnie15:51D. Larkin15:41
Line 2J. Compher14:51J. Berggren13:39A. Copp13:52
Line 3A. DeBrincat14:57M. Kasper14:29M. Appleton11:17
Line 4M. Rasmussen7:54E. Soderblom8:44J. Riemsdyk11:49
Pair 1M. Seider22:24S. Edvinsson22:22
Pair 2B. Chiarot17:36A. Sandin-Pellikka15:14
Pair 3T. Hamonic13:13A. Johansson15:03
VGK
Line 1T. Hertl14:33P. Dorofeyev15:07M. Marner15:30
Line 2R. Smith14:31B. Saad13:50W. Karlsson16:00
Line 3I. Barbashev15:28B. Howden15:24J. Eichel14:44
Line 4C. Sissons8:01K. Kolesar7:58C. Reinhardt7:55
Pair 1N. Hanifin19:06Z. Whitecloud19:51
Pair 2B. McNabb19:18S. Theodore20:06
Pair 3J. Lauzon14:00K. Korczak13:38
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | DET 2.7, VGK 3.3 | DET 0, VGK 1 |
| Total goals | 6.0 | 1 |
| Shots on goal | DET 25.3, VGK 28.6 | DET 24, VGK 34 |
| Win chance | VGK 59% | VGK won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK J. Eichel | 3.3 | 3 | 1.19 | 0 | 34% | 0 |
| VGK P. Dorofeyev | 3.2 | 2 | 0.72 | 0 | 35% | 0 |
| DET A. DeBrincat | 2.8 | 6 | 0.70 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| DET D. Larkin | 2.7 | 3 | 0.88 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| VGK T. Hertl | 2.4 | 2 | 0.82 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| VGK S. Theodore | 2.2 | 1 | 0.83 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| VGK N. Hanifin | 2.0 | 3 | 0.55 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| DET L. Raymond | 2.0 | 2 | 0.74 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| VGK M. Marner | 1.9 | 1 | 1.27 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| DET E. Finnie | 1.9 | 1 | 0.57 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| VGK W. Karlsson | 1.9 | 3 | 0.57 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| DET M. Kasper | 1.8 | 1 | 0.42 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| DET M. Seider | 1.8 | 2 | 0.44 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| VGK B. Saad | 1.5 | 7 | 0.38 | 1 | 18% | 0 |
| VGK R. Smith | 1.4 | 2 | 0.45 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| VGK I. Barbashev | 1.4 | 3 | 0.63 | 1 | 22% | 1 |
| VGK B. Howden | 1.3 | 0 | 0.42 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| DET M. Appleton | 1.2 | 0 | 0.31 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| DET J. Berggren | 1.2 | 1 | 0.34 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| DET J. Riemsdyk | 1.2 | 1 | 0.39 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| DET J. Compher | 1.2 | 0 | 0.39 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| VGK K. Korczak | 1.1 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| DET A. Copp | 1.1 | 0 | 0.37 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| VGK B. McNabb | 1.1 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| DET E. Soderblom | 1.1 | 3 | 0.29 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| DET B. Chiarot | 1.1 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| DET A. Sandin-Pellikka | 1.0 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| DET T. Hamonic | 1.0 | 1 | 0.14 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| DET M. Rasmussen | 1.0 | 2 | 0.25 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| VGK J. Lauzon | 1.0 | 2 | 0.16 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| DET S. Edvinsson | 1.0 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| VGK C. Sissons | 0.9 | 2 | 0.25 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| VGK K. Kolesar | 0.9 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| DET A. Johansson | 0.9 | 0 | 0.14 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| VGK Z. Whitecloud | 0.8 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| VGK C. Reinhardt | 0.8 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.