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Game Recap
DET1
WSH4
WSH beat DET 4-1, with the chances close: 3.59 expected goals to 3.17. D. Strome led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). L. Thompson stopped 23 of 24.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| WSH | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 |
- 1st 6:36WSHD. Strome0.01 xG
- 1st 12:28DETD. Larkin0.46 xG
- 3rd 8:16WSHP. Dubois0.07 xG
- 3rd 14:21WSHT. Wilson0.21 xG
- 3rd 15:27WSHC. McMichael0.44 xG
Team Stats
DETWSH
24Shots on goal26
3.17Expected goals3.59
54Shot attempts64
245v5 shots on goal26
0/0Power play0/0
21Hits20
18Blocked shots11
13Giveaways17
5Takeaways4
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
DET 3.17 xGWSH 3.59 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
DET Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Larkin | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:45 | 0:00 |
| J. Compher | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 18:28 | 0:00 |
| L. Raymond | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:26 | 0:00 |
| J. Berggren | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 16:44 | 0:00 |
| A. DeBrincat | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 16:00 | 0:00 |
| V. Tarasenko | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 15:26 | 0:00 |
| P. Kane | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:01 | 0:00 |
| M. Kasper | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 14:45 | 0:00 |
| E. Soderblom | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:57 | 0:00 |
| T. Motte | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 12:55 | 0:00 |
| C. Smith | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:51 | 0:00 |
| M. Rasmussen | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 10:33 | 0:00 |
| B. Chiarot | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 23:41 | 0:00 |
| M. Seider | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 26:06 | 0:00 |
| A. Johansson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 21:31 | 0:00 |
| S. Edvinsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 0 | 21:05 | 0:00 |
| J. Holl | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:12 | 0:00 |
| E. Gustafsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 13:34 | 0:00 |
WSH Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Protas | LW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:33 | 0:00 |
| D. Strome | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 15:52 | 0:00 |
| T. Wilson | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 16:52 | 0:00 |
| C. McMichael | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 16:07 | 0:00 |
| A. Ovechkin | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:20 | 0:00 |
| P. Dubois | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 15:17 | 0:00 |
| T. Raddysh | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:31 | 0:00 |
| N. Dowd | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:43 | 0:00 |
| B. Duhaime | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:13 | 0:00 |
| L. Eller | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:09 | 0:00 |
| A. Mangiapane | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:58 | 0:00 |
| A. Beauvillier | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:21 | 0:00 |
| J. Chychrun | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 23:15 | 0:00 |
| J. Carlson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 20:03 | 0:00 |
| R. Sandin | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 19:43 | 0:00 |
| M. Fehérváry | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 16:59 | 0:00 |
| T. van Riemsdyk | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 20:40 | 0:00 |
| M. Roy | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 19:24 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Thompson | 24 | 23 | 1 | .958 | 60:00 | Win |
| C. Lindgren | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | DET 2.9, WSH 3.4 | DET 1, WSH 4 |
| Total goals | 6.3 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | DET 27.0, WSH 27.8 | DET 24, WSH 26 |
| Win chance | WSH 57% | WSH won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH A. Ovechkin | 3.2 | 1 | 0.95 | 1 | 39% | 0 |
| DET D. Larkin | 2.8 | 3 | 0.82 | 1 | 31% | 1 |
| DET A. DeBrincat | 2.7 | 4 | 0.74 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| DET P. Kane | 2.5 | 2 | 0.79 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| WSH J. Chychrun | 2.3 | 3 | 0.56 | 1 | 17% | 0 |
| DET L. Raymond | 2.1 | 2 | 0.81 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| WSH T. Wilson | 2.0 | 2 | 0.75 | 1 | 30% | 1 |
| WSH J. Carlson | 1.9 | 3 | 0.64 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| WSH C. McMichael | 1.9 | 2 | 0.60 | 1 | 24% | 1 |
| WSH P. Dubois | 1.8 | 2 | 0.79 | 1 | 25% | 1 |
| DET M. Kasper | 1.8 | 1 | 0.45 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| WSH A. Protas | 1.8 | 2 | 0.71 | 2 | 22% | 0 |
| DET M. Seider | 1.8 | 0 | 0.47 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| WSH D. Strome | 1.8 | 2 | 0.89 | 2 | 28% | 1 |
| WSH A. Beauvillier | 1.7 | 3 | 0.35 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| DET V. Tarasenko | 1.7 | 0 | 0.47 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| DET C. Smith | 1.4 | 2 | 0.28 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| DET E. Soderblom | 1.3 | 0 | 0.38 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| DET B. Chiarot | 1.3 | 1 | 0.19 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| WSH M. Roy | 1.2 | 2 | 0.36 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| WSH L. Eller | 1.2 | 0 | 0.32 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| WSH T. Raddysh | 1.2 | 1 | 0.34 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| DET J. Compher | 1.2 | 3 | 0.41 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| DET M. Rasmussen | 1.1 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| WSH A. Mangiapane | 1.1 | 1 | 0.41 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| DET J. Berggren | 1.1 | 1 | 0.31 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| DET E. Gustafsson | 1.1 | 0 | 0.31 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| WSH M. Fehérváry | 1.0 | 1 | 0.29 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| WSH N. Dowd | 1.0 | 0 | 0.38 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| WSH B. Duhaime | 1.0 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| DET T. Motte | 0.9 | 2 | 0.15 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| WSH R. Sandin | 0.9 | 1 | 0.36 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| WSH T. Riemsdyk | 0.9 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| DET S. Edvinsson | 0.9 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| DET A. Johansson | 0.8 | 1 | 0.19 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| DET J. Holl | 0.5 | 1 | 0.12 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 24 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.