DET beat WSH 5-2, and the chances backed it up: 4.69 expected goals to 2.89. DET outshot WSH 41 to 26. M. Seider led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). J. Chychrun had 8 shots on goal against our projection of 2.9. J. Gibson stopped 24 of 26.
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
DET 4.69 xGWSH 2.89 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
DET Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Copp | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 15:23 | 2:26 |
| D. Larkin | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 19:48 | 3:27 |
| M. Kasper | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:38 | 0:02 |
| J. Leonard | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 12:57 | 2:21 |
| J. van Riemsdyk | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 12:24 | 3:13 |
| E. Soderblom | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 10:26 | 0:00 |
| E. Finnie | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 22:33 | 2:48 |
| L. Raymond | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 22:01 | 3:25 |
| A. DeBrincat | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 14:21 | 3:20 |
| J. Compher | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:26 | 0:06 |
| N. Danielson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:28 | 2:36 |
| M. Rasmussen | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:15 | 0:00 |
| M. Seider | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | +3 | 0 | 23:31 | 3:22 |
| S. Edvinsson | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +3 | 0 | 22:16 | 0:09 |
| A. Johansson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 13:31 | 0:00 |
| B. Chiarot | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 22:02 | 0:07 |
| J. Bernard-Docker | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | +1 | 0 | 17:56 | 0:00 |
| A. Sandin-Pellikka | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 15:04 | 2:38 |
WSH Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Wilson | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 22:58 | 2:29 |
| A. Protas | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 18:26 | 0:00 |
| D. Strome | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 17:32 | 2:25 |
| A. Ovechkin | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 18:06 | 4:00 |
| J. Sourdif | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:44 | 1:31 |
| C. McMichael | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:07 | 2:28 |
| A. Beauvillier | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 13:52 | 0:00 |
| E. Frank | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 12:51 | 1:32 |
| N. Dowd | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:00 | 0:00 |
| I. Miroshnichenko | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:50 | 0:00 |
| B. Duhaime | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:18 | 0:00 |
| S. Milano | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:21 | 1:35 |
| M. Fehérváry | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 19:47 | 0:00 |
| R. Sandin | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -1 | 0 | 19:21 | 0:00 |
| D. Chisholm | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:37 | 0:00 |
| J. Chychrun | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 0 | 21:31 | 2:45 |
| J. Carlson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 21:14 | 1:15 |
| M. Roy | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 0 | 19:37 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Thompson | 40 | 36 | 4 | .900 | 58:48 | Loss |
| C. Lindgren | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
DET
WSH
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | DET 2.8, WSH 3.2 | DET 5, WSH 2 |
| Total goals | 6.0 | 7 |
| Shots on goal | DET 27.4, WSH 28.0 | DET 41, WSH 26 |
| Win chance | WSH 57% | DET won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET A. DeBrincat | 3.0 | 8 | 0.76 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| WSH A. Ovechkin | 3.0 | 2 | 0.99 | 0 | 39% | 0 |
| WSH J. Chychrun | 2.9 | 8 | 0.72 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| DET D. Larkin | 2.8 | 3 | 0.82 | 1 | 31% | 1 |
| WSH T. Wilson | 2.2 | 4 | 0.84 | 1 | 32% | 0 |
| DET L. Raymond | 2.2 | 1 | 0.79 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| WSH A. Beauvillier | 2.1 | 0 | 0.44 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| WSH C. McMichael | 2.0 | 0 | 0.63 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| DET M. Seider | 1.9 | 3 | 0.50 | 2 | 8% | 1 |
| WSH A. Protas | 1.9 | 2 | 0.68 | 1 | 23% | 1 |
| WSH J. Carlson | 1.9 | 1 | 0.65 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| WSH D. Strome | 1.8 | 2 | 0.92 | 1 | 28% | 0 |
| DET E. Finnie | 1.8 | 1 | 0.36 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| DET J. Riemsdyk | 1.6 | 6 | 0.42 | 1 | 17% | 1 |
| WSH J. Sourdif | 1.5 | 0 | 0.40 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| DET A. Copp | 1.4 | 1 | 0.42 | 2 | 14% | 0 |
| WSH E. Frank | 1.3 | 3 | 0.48 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| DET M. Kasper | 1.3 | 4 | 0.23 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| WSH M. Roy | 1.3 | 1 | 0.35 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| DET B. Chiarot | 1.3 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| DET M. Rasmussen | 1.2 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| DET S. Edvinsson | 1.2 | 2 | 0.32 | 2 | 9% | 0 |
| DET N. Danielson | 1.1 | 2 | 0.26 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| WSH N. Dowd | 1.1 | 0 | 0.34 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| WSH R. Sandin | 1.1 | 0 | 0.34 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| DET E. Soderblom | 1.1 | 1 | 0.22 | 1 | 10% | 1 |
| DET J. Compher | 1.1 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| DET J. Leonard | 1.1 | 1 | 0.14 | 1 | 8% | 1 |
| WSH M. Fehérváry | 1.0 | 1 | 0.30 | 1 | 7% | 1 |
| DET A. Sandin-Pellikka | 1.0 | 2 | 0.30 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| WSH S. Milano | 0.9 | 0 | 0.35 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| WSH I. Miroshnichenko | 0.9 | 2 | 0.21 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| WSH D. Chisholm | 0.8 | 0 | 0.17 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| WSH B. Duhaime | 0.8 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| DET J. Bernard-Docker | 0.8 | 1 | 0.14 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| DET A. Johansson | 0.6 | 2 | 0.11 | 1 | 3% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.