ANA beat EDM 7-4, with the chances close: 3.24 expected goals to 2.82. ANA outshot EDM 39 to 24. M. Granlund led the way with 4 points (1 G, 3 A). M. McTavish had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.8. L. Dostal stopped 20 of 24.
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
EDM 2.82 xGANA 3.24 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
EDM Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. McDavid | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | -4 | 2 | 23:50 | 2:55 |
| L. Draisaitl | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 20:52 | 2:55 |
| K. Kapanen | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:35 | 0:00 |
| R. Nugent-Hopkins | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 17:16 | 2:55 |
| V. Podkolzin | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 1 | +2 | 5 | 14:52 | 0:00 |
| M. Savoie | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 16:15 | 0:00 |
| Z. Hyman | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 15:28 | 2:55 |
| J. Roslovic | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:48 | 0:00 |
| J. Samanski | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11:42 | 0:00 |
| T. Frederic | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 9:37 | 0:00 |
| C. Dach | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 9:14 | 0:00 |
| C. Lazar | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 7:30 | 0:00 |
| E. Bouchard | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 21:41 | 2:55 |
| C. Murphy | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | +1 | 0 | 21:46 | 0:00 |
| D. Nurse | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 23:10 | 0:00 |
| M. Ekholm | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 | 20:16 | 0:00 |
| J. Walman | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 16:10 | 0:00 |
| T. Emberson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 14:11 | 0:00 |
ANA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Granlund | C | 1 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 17:13 | 1:11 |
| L. Carlsson | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:53 | 2:17 |
| T. Terry | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:12 | 2:23 |
| A. Killorn | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 18:50 | 1:12 |
| B. Sennecke | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 | +2 | 2 | 16:46 | 1:11 |
| M. McTavish | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:26 | 1:17 |
| C. Kreider | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 11:09 | 1:06 |
| T. Washe | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 10:43 | 0:00 |
| J. Viel | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 7 | 10:05 | 0:00 |
| C. Gauthier | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:27 | 2:19 |
| R. Poehling | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:16 | 0:00 |
| J. LaCombe | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 2 | +3 | 0 | 26:49 | 2:27 |
| J. Carlson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 23:05 | 1:04 |
| T. Hinds | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 9:23 | 0:00 |
| D. Helleson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 2 | 9:12 | 0:00 |
| J. Trouba | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 26:30 | 1:08 |
| P. Mintyukov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 22:36 | 0:00 |
| I. Moore | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 8:38 | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
EDM
ANA
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | EDM 3.6, ANA 3.4 | EDM 4, ANA 7 |
| Total goals | 7.0 | 11 |
| Shots on goal | EDM 29.7, ANA 30.0 | EDM 24, ANA 39 |
| Win chance | EDM 53% | ANA won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM C. McDavid | 3.6 | 3 | 1.71 | 2 | 41% | 1 |
| ANA C. Gauthier | 3.1 | 4 | 0.76 | 0 | 32% | 0 |
| EDM Z. Hyman | 2.7 | 1 | 0.90 | 0 | 39% | 0 |
| EDM E. Bouchard | 2.7 | 2 | 1.22 | 2 | 21% | 0 |
| ANA L. Carlsson | 2.6 | 4 | 0.80 | 2 | 28% | 1 |
| EDM L. Draisaitl | 2.6 | 1 | 1.35 | 2 | 40% | 0 |
| ANA T. Terry | 2.5 | 1 | 0.82 | 1 | 27% | 0 |
| ANA B. Sennecke | 2.2 | 4 | 0.62 | 1 | 21% | 1 |
| EDM M. Savoie | 2.0 | 1 | 0.54 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| EDM D. Nurse | 2.0 | 3 | 0.38 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins | 1.9 | 3 | 0.84 | 1 | 25% | 1 |
| EDM V. Podkolzin | 1.9 | 3 | 0.54 | 1 | 19% | 1 |
| ANA A. Killorn | 1.9 | 3 | 0.55 | 1 | 23% | 1 |
| ANA M. Granlund | 1.9 | 2 | 0.73 | 4 | 21% | 1 |
| EDM J. Roslovic | 1.8 | 1 | 0.54 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| ANA J. Carlson | 1.8 | 3 | 0.70 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| ANA M. McTavish | 1.8 | 5 | 0.52 | 1 | 20% | 1 |
| ANA J. Trouba | 1.8 | 1 | 0.37 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| EDM K. Kapanen | 1.7 | 2 | 0.44 | 1 | 16% | 1 |
| ANA C. Kreider | 1.7 | 2 | 0.61 | 1 | 29% | 0 |
| ANA J. LaCombe | 1.6 | 4 | 0.67 | 2 | 11% | 1 |
| EDM J. Walman | 1.6 | 0 | 0.38 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| EDM M. Ekholm | 1.5 | 1 | 0.55 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| ANA R. Poehling | 1.3 | 1 | 0.50 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| ANA J. Viel | 1.3 | 1 | 0.22 | 1 | 10% | 1 |
| EDM T. Frederic | 1.1 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| EDM C. Murphy | 1.1 | 1 | 0.28 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| ANA P. Mintyukov | 1.0 | 0 | 0.31 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| ANA T. Washe | 1.0 | 2 | 0.18 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| ANA T. Hinds | 0.8 | 0 | 0.10 | 1 | 3% | 0 |
| EDM C. Dach | 0.8 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| ANA I. Moore | 0.7 | 1 | 0.14 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| EDM J. Samanski | 0.7 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| EDM C. Lazar | 0.7 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| EDM T. Emberson | 0.6 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| ANA D. Helleson | 0.6 | 1 | 0.19 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.