ANA beat EDM 4-3 in overtime, and the chances backed it up: 2.84 expected goals to 1.84. ANA outshot EDM 38 to 27. E. Bouchard led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). B. Sennecke had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.3. L. Dostal stopped 24 of 27.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| ANA | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
- 1st 0:38EDMK. Kapanen0.20 xG
- 1st 6:32EDMR. Nugent-HopkinsPP0.12 xG
- 2nd 7:36ANAC. GauthierPP0.10 xG
- 2nd 18:43ANAM. GranlundPP0.17 xG
- 3rd 3:27EDME. BouchardPP0.06 xG
- 3rd 13:31ANAJ. Viel0.18 xG
- OT 2:29ANAR. Poehling0.02 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
EDM 1.84 xGANA 2.84 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
EDM Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. McDavid | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:32 | 1:00 |
| L. Draisaitl | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 21:45 | 1:00 |
| K. Kapanen | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:08 | 0:00 |
| R. Nugent-Hopkins | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 17:39 | 1:00 |
| J. Dickinson | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 15:29 | 0:00 |
| V. Podkolzin | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:10 | 0:00 |
| Z. Hyman | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15:45 | 1:00 |
| M. Savoie | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 15:18 | 0:00 |
| J. Roslovic | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:18 | 0:00 |
| T. Frederic | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 9:21 | 0:00 |
| C. Lazar | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 9:01 | 0:00 |
| J. Samanski | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 7:31 | 0:00 |
| E. Bouchard | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 22:56 | 1:00 |
| J. Walman | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 17:29 | 0:00 |
| C. Murphy | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 24:57 | 0:00 |
| D. Nurse | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 24:55 | 0:00 |
| M. Ekholm | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:33 | 0:00 |
| T. Emberson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:32 | 0:00 |
ANA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Killorn | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 22:17 | 4:28 |
| M. Granlund | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 20:37 | 2:38 |
| C. Gauthier | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:25 | 4:26 |
| M. McTavish | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 16:20 | 4:29 |
| L. Carlsson | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:48 | 2:38 |
| R. Poehling | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 13:09 | 0:00 |
| J. Viel | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 12:08 | 0:00 |
| B. Sennecke | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 22:38 | 4:28 |
| T. Terry | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:36 | 2:40 |
| C. Kreider | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:52 | 2:37 |
| T. Washe | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:25 | 0:00 |
| J. LaCombe | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 29:54 | 4:30 |
| J. Carlson | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 25:46 | 2:36 |
| J. Trouba | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 24:46 | 0:00 |
| P. Mintyukov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 22:29 | 0:00 |
| I. Moore | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 9:26 | 0:00 |
| D. Helleson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 7:43 | 0:00 |
| T. Hinds | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 7:25 | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
EDM
ANA
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | EDM 3.6, ANA 3.5 | EDM 3, ANA 4 |
| Total goals | 7.0 | 7 |
| Shots on goal | EDM 29.3, ANA 30.6 | EDM 27, ANA 38 |
| Win chance | EDM 51% | ANA won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM C. McDavid | 3.6 | 3 | 1.72 | 2 | 41% | 0 |
| ANA C. Gauthier | 3.2 | 5 | 0.79 | 1 | 33% | 1 |
| ANA L. Carlsson | 2.7 | 4 | 0.83 | 1 | 28% | 0 |
| EDM E. Bouchard | 2.6 | 3 | 1.20 | 2 | 21% | 1 |
| EDM Z. Hyman | 2.6 | 2 | 0.87 | 0 | 38% | 0 |
| EDM L. Draisaitl | 2.6 | 2 | 1.38 | 1 | 41% | 0 |
| ANA T. Terry | 2.5 | 0 | 0.85 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| ANA B. Sennecke | 2.3 | 5 | 0.64 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| EDM D. Nurse | 2.0 | 2 | 0.38 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| EDM M. Savoie | 2.0 | 1 | 0.52 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| ANA A. Killorn | 1.9 | 2 | 0.56 | 1 | 24% | 0 |
| EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins | 1.9 | 1 | 0.84 | 1 | 25% | 1 |
| EDM V. Podkolzin | 1.9 | 0 | 0.53 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| ANA M. Granlund | 1.9 | 2 | 0.74 | 1 | 21% | 1 |
| ANA M. McTavish | 1.8 | 3 | 0.54 | 1 | 20% | 0 |
| ANA J. Carlson | 1.8 | 2 | 0.71 | 2 | 12% | 0 |
| ANA J. Trouba | 1.8 | 3 | 0.39 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| EDM J. Roslovic | 1.8 | 2 | 0.52 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| EDM K. Kapanen | 1.7 | 2 | 0.46 | 1 | 17% | 1 |
| ANA J. LaCombe | 1.7 | 2 | 0.71 | 2 | 12% | 0 |
| ANA C. Kreider | 1.6 | 1 | 0.58 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| EDM J. Walman | 1.6 | 0 | 0.38 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| EDM M. Ekholm | 1.5 | 0 | 0.54 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| ANA R. Poehling | 1.3 | 3 | 0.49 | 1 | 17% | 1 |
| ANA J. Viel | 1.2 | 3 | 0.23 | 1 | 10% | 1 |
| EDM C. Murphy | 1.1 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| EDM T. Frederic | 1.1 | 3 | 0.21 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| EDM J. Dickinson | 1.0 | 2 | 0.31 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| ANA P. Mintyukov | 1.0 | 1 | 0.32 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| ANA T. Washe | 1.0 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| ANA T. Hinds | 0.8 | 0 | 0.14 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| ANA I. Moore | 0.7 | 1 | 0.13 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| EDM J. Samanski | 0.6 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| EDM C. Lazar | 0.6 | 2 | 0.16 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| EDM T. Emberson | 0.6 | 1 | 0.17 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| ANA D. Helleson | 0.5 | 1 | 0.19 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.