Game Recap: EDM 2, ANA 5, April 30, 2026

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Game Recap

EDM2

FinalThu, Apr 30, 2026PlayoffsEvery game that night

ANA5

ANA beat EDM 5-2, and the chances backed it up: 4.61 expected goals to 3.00. T. Terry led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). C. Murphy had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.1. L. Dostal stopped 25 of 27.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
EDM	1	0	1	2
ANA	3	1	1	5

1st 9:56ANAR. Poehling0.10 xG
1st 13:43ANAC. Kreider0.11 xG
1st 15:14EDMC. Murphy0.31 xG
1st 16:50ANAC. GauthierPP0.08 xG
2nd 19:13ANAT. Terry0.18 xG
3rd 1:13EDMV. Podkolzin0.56 xG
3rd 17:26ANAL. CarlssonEN0.74 xG

Team Stats

EDMANA

27Shots on goal31

3.00Expected goals4.61

61Shot attempts56

245v5 shots on goal27

0/0Power play1/2

27Hits33

9Blocked shots17

2Penalty minutes0

16Giveaways11

3Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

EDM 3.00 xGANA 4.61 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

EDM26 on goal, 2 scored

ANA31 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

EDM Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
L. Draisaitl	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	-1	0	24:01	0:00
K. Kapanen	RW	0	1	1	1	3	1	0	0	19:49	0:00
V. Podkolzin	RW	1	0	1	3	5	0	-1	0	18:46	0:00
C. Dach	C	0	1	1	1	2	1	+1	0	6:21	0:00
J. Samanski	C	0	1	1	0	0	0	+1	0	5:14	0:00
C. McDavid	C	0	0	0	3	1	0	-3	0	24:49	0:00
Z. Hyman	LW	0	0	0	2	4	0	-3	0	20:51	0:00
R. Nugent-Hopkins	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	-2	2	15:57	0:00
M. Savoie	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	14:26	0:00
J. Roslovic	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	14:25	0:00
J. Dickinson	C	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	11:07	0:00
C. Lazar	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	+1	0	4:28	0:00
C. Murphy	D	1	0	1	4	2	1	+1	0	20:33	0:00
D. Nurse	D	0	0	0	2	2	1	+1	0	25:49	0:00
E. Bouchard	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	-3	0	24:11	0:00
J. Walman	D	0	0	0	3	0	0	-2	0	19:58	0:00
M. Ekholm	D	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	0	16:22	0:00
T. Emberson	D	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	13:09	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Ingram	30	26	4	.867	56:31	Loss
T. Jarry	0	0	0	–	0:00

ANA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	TOI	PP TOI
T. Terry	RW	1	2	3	5	1	1	+3	18:08	1:11
L. Carlsson	C	1	2	3	2	2	1	+3	17:35	1:13
C. Kreider	LW	1	2	3	2	2	0	+3	16:15	1:10
C. Gauthier	LW	1	1	2	5	1	0	+1	14:39	1:55
R. Poehling	C	1	0	1	3	1	3	0	15:32	0:00
M. McTavish	C	0	1	1	1	3	0	+1	10:36	1:55
A. Killorn	LW	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	17:43	1:55
M. Granlund	C	0	0	0	0	1	2	-1	15:48	1:09
J. Viel	LW	0	0	0	1	7	0	-1	15:25	0:07
B. Sennecke	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	15:08	1:55
T. Washe	C	0	0	0	0	6	0	0	13:17	0:05
J. LaCombe	D	0	1	1	3	0	2	+3	27:05	2:25
J. Carlson	D	0	1	1	2	0	2	-1	24:29	0:48
J. Trouba	D	0	0	0	1	3	1	+3	24:35	0:09
P. Mintyukov	D	0	0	0	2	2	4	-1	21:52	0:00
I. Moore	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	12:45	0:08
T. Hinds	D	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	10:01	0:00
D. Helleson	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	9:07	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
L. Dostal	27	25	2	.926	60:00	Win
V. Husso	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

EDM

Line 1L. Draisaitl20:32K. Kapanen18:38C. McDavid20:28

Line 2Z. Hyman17:41R. Nugent-Hopkins12:44V. Podkolzin18:16

Line 3J. Roslovic14:09M. Savoie12:01J. Dickinson9:51

Line 4C. Dach6:21C. Lazar4:28J. Samanski4:43

Pair 1D. Nurse23:37C. Murphy18:22

Pair 2M. Ekholm14:25E. Bouchard20:34

Pair 3T. Emberson12:16J. Walman17:24

ANA

Line 1T. Terry16:11L. Carlsson15:41C. Kreider14:16

Line 2A. Killorn15:15M. Granlund14:02B. Sennecke13:13

Line 3J. Viel13:45T. Washe12:01

Line 4R. Poehling13:55C. Gauthier11:44M. McTavish8:07

Pair 1J. LaCombe22:38J. Trouba22:23

Pair 2J. Carlson22:14P. Mintyukov20:26

Pair 3D. Helleson9:07T. Hinds10:01

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	EDM 3.5, ANA 3.5	EDM 2, ANA 5
Total goals	7.0	7
Shots on goal	EDM 28.6, ANA 31.2	EDM 27, ANA 31
Win chance	ANA 50%	ANA won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
EDM C. McDavid	3.5	3	1.67	0	40%	0
ANA C. Gauthier	3.3	5	0.79	2	33%	1
EDM L. Draisaitl	2.7	1	1.43	1	42%	0
ANA L. Carlsson	2.6	2	0.77	3	27%	1
EDM E. Bouchard	2.6	1	1.21	0	20%	0
EDM Z. Hyman	2.5	2	0.85	0	37%	0
ANA B. Sennecke	2.5	2	0.67	0	23%	0
ANA T. Terry	2.4	5	0.79	3	26%	1
EDM D. Nurse	2.1	2	0.39	0	10%	0
ANA A. Killorn	2.0	1	0.56	0	24%	0
ANA J. Carlson	1.9	2	0.71	1	12%	0
EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins	1.9	2	0.85	0	25%	0
ANA M. McTavish	1.8	1	0.54	1	20%	0
ANA J. Trouba	1.8	1	0.38	0	8%	0
ANA M. Granlund	1.8	0	0.71	0	21%	0
EDM K. Kapanen	1.8	1	0.49	1	19%	0
ANA J. LaCombe	1.8	3	0.74	1	12%	0
EDM M. Savoie	1.8	2	0.47	0	19%	0
EDM V. Podkolzin	1.7	3	0.49	1	18%	1
EDM J. Roslovic	1.7	1	0.48	0	19%	0
ANA C. Kreider	1.6	2	0.57	3	27%	1
EDM J. Walman	1.5	3	0.39	0	10%	0
EDM M. Ekholm	1.4	1	0.52	0	9%	0
ANA J. Viel	1.3	1	0.24	0	11%	0
ANA R. Poehling	1.3	3	0.47	1	17%	1
EDM C. Murphy	1.1	4	0.30	1	7%	1
ANA P. Mintyukov	1.0	2	0.31	0	7%	0
EDM J. Dickinson	1.0	0	0.30	0	13%	0
ANA T. Washe	0.9	0	0.18	0	9%	0
EDM C. Dach	0.8	1	0.20	1	8%	0
ANA I. Moore	0.7	1	0.13	0	3%	0
EDM C. Lazar	0.7	0	0.17	0	8%	0
ANA T. Hinds	0.7	0	0.12	0	3%	0
EDM T. Emberson	0.6	0	0.17	0	3%	0
EDM J. Samanski	0.5	0	0.22	1	12%	0
ANA D. Helleson	0.5	0	0.17	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 25 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.