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Game Recap
EDM5
FinalWed, Oct 7, 2026Every game that night
ANA2

EDM beat ANA 5-2 despite fewer good chances: 2.57 expected goals to 3.31. ANA outshot EDM 31 to 19. L. Draisaitl led the way with 4 points (0 G, 4 A). B. Sennecke had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 2.7. D. Levi stopped 29 of 31.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
EDM0505
ANA2002
  1. 1st 4:11ANAB. SenneckePP0.22 xG
  2. 1st 15:28ANAB. SenneckePP0.12 xG
  3. 2nd 0:11EDME. Bouchard0.01 xG
  4. 2nd 6:30EDMK. KapanenPP0.18 xG
  5. 2nd 14:12EDME. Bouchard0.07 xG
  6. 2nd 16:49EDMV. Podkolzin0.19 xG
  7. 2nd 19:08EDMC. McDavid0.05 xG

Team Stats

EDMANA
19Shots on goal31
2.57Expected goals3.31
43Shot attempts72
125v5 shots on goal19
1/4Power play2/7
28Hits29
18Blocked shots9
16Penalty minutes8
15Giveaways14
2Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

EDM 2.57 xGANA 3.31 xGGoal

00.511.522.533.51st2nd3rdANA goal, 4:11ANA goal, 15:28EDM goal, 0:11EDM goal, 6:30EDM goal, 14:12EDM goal, 16:49EDM goal, 19:08

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

EDM19 on goal, 5 scored
ANA29 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

EDM Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
L. DraisaitlC044221+4019:184:21
C. McDavidC123121+4024:314:17
V. PodkolzinRW101351+3018:134:18
K. KapanenRW1013020016:224:22
A. FormentonLW0000110015:170:07
M. JosephRW0000510014:430:17
O. MichaelsRW0001000013:410:18
T. FredericC0000610011:332:22
I. HowardLW0000000210:052:17
J. SamanskiC000010049:502:07
J. DickinsonC000111009:330:00
M. JonesLW000011007:210:00
E. BouchardD213400+4023:094:10
M. EkholmD011100+4021:560:00
R. SheaD0002210024:302:31
C. MurphyD0000030819:210:04
J. WalmanD0001030215:502:39
T. EmbersonD0000210011:100:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
D. Levi31292.93559:49Win
T. Jarry000–0:00

ANA Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
B. SenneckeRW202740-1224:588:59
L. CarlssonC022000-2223:368:58
M. GranlundC011201-1021:338:59
C. GauthierLW000700-2224:109:02
T. WasheC000142-1017:192:40
R. PoehlingC000010-1013:070:51
N. NesterenkoC0001700211:080:15
J. CaulfieldRW000130-1010:060:00
N. KlepovRW0000500010:030:48
A. KillornLW000200009:300:03
A. GreerLW000100-109:180:32
J. MalottLW000230-109:000:00
J. LaCombeD011012-3029:188:57
T. LuneauD000000-3021:330:49
P. MintyukovD000201-1017:450:51
N. WarrenD0001120017:170:00
T. MitchellD000200-1013:120:00
T. HindsD0002010011:530:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
L. Dostal17125.70639:41Loss
V. Husso2201.00015:58

Lines at 5-on-5

EDM

Line 1L. Draisaitl11:54C. McDavid13:03V. Podkolzin12:13
Line 2M. Joseph11:22O. Michaels10:26A. Formenton10:47
Line 3I. Howard7:45J. Samanski7:43M. Jones7:21
Line 4J. Dickinson8:33T. Frederic9:11K. Kapanen7:24
Pair 1C. Murphy16:03R. Shea16:01
Pair 2J. Walman10:42T. Emberson10:12
Pair 3M. Ekholm13:06E. Bouchard12:39

ANA

Line 1C. Gauthier12:02L. Carlsson11:41A. Greer8:16
Line 2J. Caulfield9:04T. Washe10:53J. Malott9:00
Line 3M. Granlund8:05B. Sennecke14:47A. Killorn7:13
Line 4R. Poehling8:08N. Nesterenko9:25N. Klepov9:15
Pair 1T. Mitchell13:07P. Mintyukov14:37
Pair 2N. Warren12:23T. Hinds11:39
Pair 3J. LaCombe12:05T. Luneau14:45

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

8 of 12 overs hit (67%).

PlayerLineOverUnderSOGResult
ANA C. Gauthier3.5-104-1157Over
EDM C. McDavid3.5+135-1451Under
EDM L. Draisaitl3.5+135-1522Under
ANA B. Sennecke2.5+126-1457Over
EDM E. Bouchard2.5-115+1204Over
ANA L. Carlsson2.5+120-1350Under
EDM V. Podkolzin2.5+105-1223Over
ANA A. Killorn1.5-120-1052Over
ANA J. LaCombe1.5-135+1150Under
EDM K. Kapanen1.5-120+1053Over
ANA M. Granlund1.5-130+1052Over
ANA P. Mintyukov1.5+135-1852Over

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreEDM 3.5, ANA 3.5EDM 5, ANA 2
Total goals6.97
Shots on goalEDM 28.4, ANA 30.1EDM 19, ANA 31
Win chanceANA 50%EDM won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
EDM C. McDavid3.511.77341%1
ANA C. Gauthier3.570.94035%0
EDM L. Draisaitl2.921.53444%0
ANA B. Sennecke2.770.83228%2
EDM E. Bouchard2.641.22322%2
ANA L. Carlsson2.600.91229%0
EDM V. Podkolzin2.130.64123%1
ANA M. Granlund2.020.87125%0
EDM A. Formenton2.000.46020%0
EDM K. Kapanen1.930.56120%1
ANA A. Killorn1.920.57024%0
ANA J. LaCombe1.800.79112%0
EDM I. Howard1.700.33013%0
ANA A. Greer1.610.47019%0
EDM J. Walman1.510.37010%0
EDM M. Ekholm1.410.4819%0
EDM T. Frederic1.400.29015%0
ANA T. Luneau1.200.3408%0
ANA R. Poehling1.200.43015%0
ANA N. Nesterenko1.210.30012%0
EDM C. Murphy1.100.2807%0
ANA P. Mintyukov1.020.2807%0
EDM M. Jones1.000.2209%0
EDM J. Dickinson1.010.28013%0
ANA T. Washe0.910.21010%0
EDM R. Shea0.920.4408%0
ANA J. Malott0.820.1507%0
EDM M. Joseph0.800.2408%0
ANA T. Hinds0.720.1003%0
EDM J. Samanski0.600.28013%0
EDM T. Emberson0.600.1503%0
ANA T. Mitchell0.520.1505%0

Shots on goal: 14 of 32 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.