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Game Recap
EDM1
CBJ6
CBJ beat EDM 6-1 despite fewer good chances: 2.24 expected goals to 2.90. C. Sillinger led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). D. Nurse had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.1. E. Merzlikins stopped 31 of 32.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| CBJ | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 |
- 1st 2:18CBJS. MonahanPP0.10 xG
- 1st 10:44CBJA. Fantilli0.17 xG
- 1st 14:32CBJC. Sillinger0.01 xG
- 2nd 7:04CBJM. Olivier0.02 xG
- 3rd 15:15CBJM. Pyyhtia0.16 xG
- 3rd 16:39CBJS. Monahan0.13 xG
- 3rd 19:33EDMM. EkholmPP0.03 xG
Team Stats
EDMCBJ
32Shots on goal25
2.90Expected goals2.24
62Shot attempts47
205v5 shots on goal20
1/6Power play1/4
10Hits20
9Blocked shots13
8Penalty minutes10
17Giveaways16
4Takeaways4
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
EDM 2.90 xGCBJ 2.24 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
EDM Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Perry | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 11:52 | 3:41 |
| R. Nugent-Hopkins | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:42 | 5:31 |
| L. Draisaitl | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:32 | 5:45 |
| M. Janmark | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 18:23 | 0:33 |
| Z. Hyman | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 18:16 | 5:04 |
| A. Henrique | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 17:24 | 2:37 |
| V. Arvidsson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 2 | 16:55 | 5:01 |
| C. Brown | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:03 | 0:00 |
| J. Skinner | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:40 | 3:06 |
| V. Podkolzin | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 13:34 | 0:02 |
| D. Ryan | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 4 | 11:19 | 0:02 |
| C. McDavid | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:37 | 0:00 |
| M. Ekholm | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 24:00 | 3:38 |
| D. Nurse | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 23:35 | 2:41 |
| E. Bouchard | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 20:29 | 5:52 |
| B. Kulak | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 18:12 | 0:02 |
| T. Emberson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 15:29 | 0:10 |
| T. Stecher | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:16 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Skinner | 25 | 19 | 6 | .760 | 60:00 | Loss |
| C. Pickard | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
CBJ Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Sillinger | C | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 2 | 16:33 | 4:02 |
| K. Marchenko | RW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:40 | 4:12 |
| S. Monahan | C | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 17:13 | 3:24 |
| A. Fantilli | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 10:37 | 1:08 |
| E. Chinakhov | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 17:16 | 3:53 |
| M. Olivier | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 14:12 | 0:23 |
| J. van Riemsdyk | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:57 | 1:10 |
| M. Pyyhtia | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 10:42 | 0:00 |
| J. Danforth | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:17 | 1:47 |
| Z. Aston-Reese | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:49 | 0:23 |
| S. Kuraly | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 13:13 | 0:00 |
| K. Labanc | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:13 | 0:00 |
| Z. Werenski | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 20:20 | 3:21 |
| I. Provorov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 2 | 25:36 | 2:22 |
| D. Severson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 2 | 24:45 | 2:13 |
| J. Johnson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 16:28 | 0:00 |
| J. Christiansen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 15:41 | 0:17 |
| J. Harris | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | +1 | 0 | 14:05 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E. Merzlikins | 32 | 31 | 1 | .969 | 60:00 | Win |
| D. Tarasov | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | EDM 3.8, CBJ 3.0 | EDM 1, CBJ 6 |
| Total goals | 6.8 | 7 |
| Shots on goal | EDM 33.6, CBJ 27.9 | EDM 32, CBJ 25 |
| Win chance | EDM 61% | CBJ won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM C. McDavid | 3.6 | 0 | 1.72 | 0 | 42% | 0 |
| EDM Z. Hyman | 3.4 | 3 | 0.86 | 0 | 40% | 0 |
| EDM E. Bouchard | 2.9 | 4 | 1.01 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| EDM L. Draisaitl | 2.9 | 0 | 1.35 | 0 | 44% | 0 |
| EDM V. Arvidsson | 2.8 | 3 | 0.73 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| EDM J. Skinner | 2.7 | 3 | 0.66 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| CBJ K. Marchenko | 2.6 | 0 | 0.64 | 2 | 30% | 0 |
| CBJ Z. Werenski | 2.6 | 3 | 0.78 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| CBJ A. Fantilli | 2.4 | 1 | 0.56 | 2 | 22% | 1 |
| EDM M. Ekholm | 2.4 | 2 | 0.57 | 1 | 11% | 1 |
| CBJ S. Monahan | 2.3 | 3 | 0.71 | 2 | 25% | 2 |
| CBJ E. Chinakhov | 2.2 | 1 | 0.57 | 1 | 22% | 0 |
| CBJ C. Sillinger | 2.2 | 2 | 0.46 | 3 | 18% | 1 |
| EDM D. Nurse | 2.1 | 6 | 0.38 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins | 2.0 | 1 | 0.87 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| EDM C. Brown | 1.4 | 2 | 0.29 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| EDM B. Kulak | 1.4 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| CBJ J. Danforth | 1.4 | 5 | 0.42 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| CBJ J. Riemsdyk | 1.3 | 1 | 0.36 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| EDM A. Henrique | 1.3 | 1 | 0.47 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| CBJ K. Labanc | 1.2 | 1 | 0.31 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| CBJ D. Severson | 1.2 | 1 | 0.45 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| EDM C. Perry | 1.2 | 2 | 0.31 | 1 | 16% | 0 |
| CBJ I. Provorov | 1.2 | 0 | 0.36 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| CBJ Z. Aston-Reese | 1.1 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| CBJ M. Pyyhtia | 1.1 | 2 | 0.21 | 1 | 10% | 1 |
| EDM V. Podkolzin | 1.1 | 2 | 0.22 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| CBJ M. Olivier | 1.1 | 2 | 0.31 | 1 | 12% | 1 |
| EDM T. Emberson | 1.1 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| CBJ S. Kuraly | 1.1 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| EDM T. Stecher | 1.0 | 2 | 0.16 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| EDM M. Janmark | 1.0 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| CBJ J. Christiansen | 0.9 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| EDM D. Ryan | 0.8 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| CBJ J. Johnson | 0.7 | 1 | 0.14 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| CBJ J. Harris | 0.6 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 24 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.