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Game Recap
EDM5
OTT2
EDM beat OTT 5-2, with the chances close: 2.61 expected goals to 2.29. C. McDavid led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). T. Stützle had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.2. S. Skinner stopped 27 of 29.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 |
| OTT | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
- 1st 3:46EDME. Bouchard0.20 xG
- 1st 15:40OTTT. Stützle0.16 xG
- 1st 16:15EDMC. McDavid0.36 xG
- 1st 19:19EDMC. McDavidPP0.10 xG
- 2nd 4:39EDML. Draisaitl0.18 xG
- 3rd 11:50EDMR. Nugent-Hopkins0.10 xG
- 3rd 17:36OTTJ. Norris0.05 xG
Team Stats
EDMOTT
31Shots on goal29
2.61Expected goals2.29
52Shot attempts59
275v5 shots on goal27
1/3Power play0/2
17Hits35
19Blocked shots13
11Penalty minutes13
11Giveaways12
5Takeaways4
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
EDM 2.61 xGOTT 2.29 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
EDM Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. McDavid | C | 2 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 22:08 | 4:02 |
| L. Draisaitl | C | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 20:58 | 4:02 |
| V. Podkolzin | RW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 16:04 | 0:00 |
| R. Nugent-Hopkins | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 20:53 | 3:50 |
| A. Henrique | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 2 | 16:27 | 0:00 |
| D. Ryan | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 11:15 | 0:00 |
| J. Skinner | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:16 | 0:00 |
| M. Janmark | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14:28 | 0:00 |
| C. Brown | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 14:02 | 0:00 |
| Z. Hyman | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:17 | 2:07 |
| C. Perry | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:03 | 1:55 |
| E. Bouchard | D | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +3 | 0 | 22:10 | 4:02 |
| B. Kulak | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 23:05 | 0:00 |
| M. Ekholm | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 19:58 | 0:12 |
| T. Emberson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 16:42 | 0:00 |
| T. Dermott | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 12:48 | 0:00 |
| T. Stecher | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 12:27 | 0:00 |
| J. Brown | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 10:59 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Skinner | 29 | 27 | 2 | .931 | 60:00 | Win |
| C. Pickard | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
OTT Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Stützle | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 19:11 | 1:53 |
| J. Norris | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 | -2 | 4 | 17:08 | 1:38 |
| D. Batherson | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:08 | 1:42 |
| B. Tkachuk | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:52 | 1:35 |
| C. Giroux | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 19:27 | 2:15 |
| R. Greig | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 18:30 | 2:14 |
| S. Pinto | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 17:26 | 0:07 |
| M. Amadio | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:03 | 0:04 |
| D. Perron | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:46 | 2:06 |
| N. Cousins | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 9:39 | 0:00 |
| A. Gaudette | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 9:18 | 2:13 |
| Z. MacEwen | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 5:39 | 0:00 |
| N. Jensen | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 17:59 | 0:10 |
| J. Sanderson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 23:23 | 1:45 |
| T. Chabot | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 22:39 | 2:18 |
| A. Zub | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 0 | 19:58 | 0:00 |
| T. Kleven | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:31 | 0:00 |
| T. Hamonic | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 15:45 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Ullmark | 31 | 26 | 5 | .839 | 60:00 | Loss |
| A. Forsberg | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | EDM 3.2, OTT 3.1 | EDM 5, OTT 2 |
| Total goals | 6.2 | 7 |
| Shots on goal | EDM 28.4, OTT 28.8 | EDM 31, OTT 29 |
| Win chance | EDM 52% | EDM won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT B. Tkachuk | 3.9 | 1 | 0.94 | 1 | 34% | 0 |
| EDM C. McDavid | 3.2 | 5 | 1.50 | 3 | 38% | 2 |
| EDM Z. Hyman | 3.0 | 2 | 0.77 | 0 | 36% | 0 |
| EDM L. Draisaitl | 2.6 | 4 | 1.26 | 3 | 41% | 1 |
| EDM E. Bouchard | 2.3 | 2 | 0.92 | 3 | 17% | 1 |
| OTT D. Batherson | 2.3 | 3 | 0.81 | 1 | 27% | 0 |
| OTT T. Stützle | 2.2 | 5 | 0.98 | 1 | 29% | 1 |
| OTT C. Giroux | 2.1 | 1 | 0.83 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| OTT J. Norris | 2.1 | 2 | 0.72 | 1 | 33% | 1 |
| OTT T. Chabot | 2.1 | 2 | 0.57 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| OTT S. Pinto | 2.0 | 2 | 0.50 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| EDM J. Skinner | 2.0 | 2 | 0.48 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins | 1.9 | 2 | 0.78 | 1 | 23% | 1 |
| EDM M. Ekholm | 1.9 | 3 | 0.54 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| OTT D. Perron | 1.8 | 2 | 0.57 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| OTT J. Sanderson | 1.7 | 2 | 0.46 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| EDM A. Henrique | 1.4 | 1 | 0.46 | 1 | 21% | 0 |
| OTT M. Amadio | 1.4 | 2 | 0.39 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| EDM C. Brown | 1.4 | 2 | 0.29 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| OTT A. Gaudette | 1.3 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| OTT R. Greig | 1.3 | 2 | 0.39 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| EDM V. Podkolzin | 1.3 | 1 | 0.24 | 2 | 12% | 0 |
| EDM B. Kulak | 1.3 | 4 | 0.33 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| EDM C. Perry | 1.1 | 1 | 0.32 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| OTT T. Hamonic | 1.1 | 1 | 0.17 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| OTT N. Cousins | 1.1 | 2 | 0.22 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| OTT N. Jensen | 1.1 | 0 | 0.27 | 2 | 5% | 0 |
| OTT A. Zub | 0.9 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| OTT Z. MacEwen | 0.9 | 1 | 0.14 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| EDM M. Janmark | 0.9 | 0 | 0.31 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| OTT T. Kleven | 0.8 | 1 | 0.13 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| EDM J. Brown | 0.8 | 1 | 0.17 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| EDM D. Ryan | 0.8 | 0 | 0.17 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| EDM T. Stecher | 0.8 | 0 | 0.14 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| EDM T. Emberson | 0.8 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| EDM T. Dermott | 0.5 | 0 | 0.10 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 27 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.