Game Recap: EDM 1, TBL 4, February 25, 2025

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Game Recap

EDM1

FinalTue, Feb 25, 2025Every game that night

TBL4

TBL beat EDM 4-1, and the chances backed it up: 2.98 expected goals to 1.93. TBL outshot EDM 36 to 24. N. Kucherov led the way with 2 points (0 G, 2 A). M. Eyssimont had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.5. A. Vasilevskiy stopped 23 of 24.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
EDM	1	0	0	1
TBL	1	2	1	4

1st 11:53EDML. DraisaitlPP0.11 xG
1st 13:11TBLM. Eyssimont0.17 xG
2nd 0:29TBLB. Hagel0.02 xG
2nd 5:38TBLV. HedmanPP0.09 xG
3rd 7:23TBLN. Paul0.12 xG

Team Stats

EDMTBL

24Shots on goal36

1.93Expected goals2.98

36Shot attempts67

235v5 shots on goal30

1/1Power play1/3

30Hits25

16Blocked shots9

6Penalty minutes2

17Giveaways11

10Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

EDM 1.93 xGTBL 2.98 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

EDM24 on goal, 1 scored

TBL36 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

EDM Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. McDavid	C	0	1	1	2	2	1	-1	0	20:30	0:16
L. Draisaitl	C	1	0	1	5	2	0	0	4	19:41	0:16
Z. Hyman	LW	0	0	0	3	1	0	-2	0	16:50	0:16
R. Nugent-Hopkins	C	0	0	0	1	0	2	-1	2	15:18	0:16
M. Janmark	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	15:18	0:00
V. Arvidsson	LW	0	0	0	0	2	0	-2	0	14:32	0:00
C. Brown	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	14:00	0:00
A. Henrique	C	0	0	0	0	0	2	-1	0	13:57	0:00
M. Savoie	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	13:00	0:00
V. Podkolzin	RW	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	12:49	0:00
C. Perry	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	10:26	0:00
K. Kapanen	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	9:42	0:00
E. Bouchard	D	0	1	1	2	5	2	-1	0	20:27	0:16
B. Kulak	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	23:16	0:00
M. Ekholm	D	0	0	0	1	2	2	-2	0	22:02	0:00
D. Nurse	D	0	0	0	2	2	4	-1	0	20:13	0:00
T. Emberson	D	0	0	0	1	5	1	0	0	17:35	0:00
T. Stecher	D	0	0	0	1	2	2	-1	0	16:11	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Skinner	36	32	4	.889	59:12	Loss
C. Pickard	0	0	0	–	0:00

TBL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. Kucherov	RW	0	2	2	3	0	0	+1	2	22:51	4:31
J. Guentzel	C	0	1	1	2	0	0	+1	0	21:31	3:48
B. Hagel	LW	1	0	1	5	1	0	+1	0	21:21	3:31
B. Point	C	0	1	1	4	2	1	+1	0	19:41	3:28
A. Cirelli	C	0	1	1	3	0	0	+1	0	17:50	0:53
N. Paul	LW	1	0	1	3	0	0	+1	0	16:53	1:13
Z. Girgensons	C	0	1	1	0	2	0	+1	0	16:12	0:00
G. Goncalves	C	0	1	1	1	3	0	+1	0	14:49	1:06
M. Eyssimont	C	1	0	1	6	2	0	+1	0	12:04	0:00
M. Chaffee	RW	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	10:42	0:00
L. Glendening	C	0	0	0	1	2	2	0	0	10:10	0:08
V. Hedman	D	1	0	1	3	2	3	+2	0	21:38	3:21
R. McDonagh	D	0	0	0	1	1	3	+1	0	22:10	0:06
E. Cernak	D	0	0	0	0	6	0	+2	0	19:34	0:00
J. Moser	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	+1	0	16:56	0:00
E. Lilleberg	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	15:01	0:00
D. Raddysh	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	11:03	1:20
N. Perbix	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	9:18	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Vasilevskiy	24	23	1	.958	60:00	Win
M. Tomkins	0	0	0	–	0:00

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	EDM 3.2, TBL 3.2	EDM 1, TBL 4
Total goals	6.5	5
Shots on goal	EDM 30.8, TBL 28.4	EDM 24, TBL 36
Win chance	TBL 51%	TBL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
TBL N. Kucherov	3.3	3	1.51	2	35%	0
EDM C. McDavid	3.2	2	1.42	1	37%	0
EDM L. Draisaitl	3.1	5	1.24	1	41%	1
EDM Z. Hyman	2.9	3	0.68	0	34%	0
EDM E. Bouchard	2.9	2	0.78	1	15%	0
TBL J. Guentzel	2.7	2	0.92	1	34%	0
TBL B. Hagel	2.6	5	0.94	1	31%	1
TBL B. Point	2.6	4	1.00	1	38%	0
EDM V. Arvidsson	2.4	0	0.52	0	19%	0
EDM D. Nurse	2.3	2	0.36	0	9%	0
TBL V. Hedman	2.1	3	0.75	1	13%	1
EDM M. Ekholm	2.0	1	0.42	0	11%	0
TBL A. Cirelli	1.9	3	0.64	1	23%	0
EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins	1.8	1	0.69	0	22%	0
TBL N. Paul	1.8	3	0.50	1	22%	1
TBL M. Eyssimont	1.5	6	0.21	1	9%	1
TBL D. Raddysh	1.5	1	0.40	0	7%	0
EDM B. Kulak	1.4	1	0.27	0	6%	0
EDM A. Henrique	1.3	0	0.39	0	19%	0
TBL Z. Girgensons	1.3	0	0.19	1	11%	0
EDM C. Brown	1.3	0	0.31	0	10%	0
EDM C. Perry	1.3	1	0.32	0	16%	0
EDM V. Podkolzin	1.3	0	0.26	0	11%	0
EDM K. Kapanen	1.1	1	0.25	0	10%	0
TBL G. Goncalves	1.1	1	0.25	1	9%	0
TBL R. McDonagh	1.0	1	0.33	0	4%	0
TBL E. Cernak	0.9	0	0.24	0	4%	0
TBL N. Perbix	0.9	0	0.26	0	5%	0
TBL J. Moser	0.9	0	0.28	0	6%	0
EDM T. Emberson	0.9	1	0.20	0	2%	0
TBL M. Chaffee	0.8	1	0.22	0	12%	0
EDM M. Janmark	0.8	1	0.26	0	9%	0
TBL L. Glendening	0.8	1	0.13	0	8%	0
EDM T. Stecher	0.7	1	0.12	0	4%	0
TBL E. Lilleberg	0.7	2	0.19	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 21 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.