Game Recap: EDM 3, TOR 4 (OT), November 16, 2024

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Game Recap

EDM3

Final/OTSat, Nov 16, 2024Every game that night

TOR4

TOR beat EDM 4-3 in overtime, with the chances close: 3.19 expected goals to 2.62. EDM outshot TOR 30 to 22. B. McMann led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). A. Stolarz stopped 27 of 30.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
EDM	1	1	1	0	3
TOR	1	0	2	1	4

1st 1:42EDMA. Henrique0.25 xG
1st 3:53TORB. McMann0.55 xG
2nd 1:51EDMC. McDavidPP0.20 xG
3rd 13:08TORM. Knies0.16 xG
3rd 14:07TORB. McMann0.17 xG
3rd 18:31EDML. Draisaitl0.22 xG
OT 0:40TORM. Marner0.12 xG

Team Stats

EDMTOR

30Shots on goal22

2.62Expected goals3.19

73Shot attempts54

245v5 shots on goal15

1/2Power play0/4

15Hits18

17Blocked shots27

8Penalty minutes17

11Giveaways14

7Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

EDM 2.62 xGTOR 3.19 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

EDM29 on goal, 3 scored

TOR21 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

EDM Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. McDavid	C	1	1	2	4	2	0	-3	2	24:46	3:32
L. Draisaitl	C	1	1	2	3	0	1	0	0	22:09	3:31
Z. Hyman	LW	0	1	1	2	0	0	-1	2	21:52	3:32
R. Nugent-Hopkins	C	0	1	1	0	0	1	-1	0	20:57	3:27
A. Henrique	C	1	0	1	2	0	1	+1	0	16:33	1:47
M. Janmark	C	0	1	1	0	1	2	+1	0	14:05	0:02
C. Brown	RW	0	1	1	1	1	1	+1	0	13:43	0:00
V. Podkolzin	RW	0	0	0	2	4	1	0	0	12:10	0:00
J. Skinner	LW	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	11:10	1:46
C. Perry	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	10:51	1:45
D. Ryan	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	8:47	0:00
E. Bouchard	D	0	0	0	2	1	2	-1	2	25:39	3:35
M. Ekholm	D	0	0	0	3	1	1	0	2	25:01	1:44
B. Kulak	D	0	0	0	3	0	1	0	0	21:28	1:54
T. Stecher	D	0	0	0	3	0	2	0	0	15:04	0:00
T. Emberson	D	0	0	0	1	4	2	-2	0	14:23	0:00
T. Dermott	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	8:13	0:00
D. Nurse	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	7:45	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Skinner	22	18	4	.818	60:04	OT loss
C. Pickard	0	0	0	–	0:00

TOR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Marner	RW	1	1	2	3	0	0	+3	0	24:00	4:49
B. McMann	C	2	0	2	3	1	2	+2	0	19:06	2:05
J. Tavares	C	0	1	1	1	1	1	+2	2	22:35	4:31
M. Knies	LW	1	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	21:05	4:45
W. Nylander	RW	0	0	0	4	0	0	-1	0	21:18	5:45
M. Domi	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	14:42	2:11
D. Kampf	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	14:22	0:19
P. Holmberg	RW	0	0	0	0	0	2	-1	0	13:02	0:17
N. Robertson	LW	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	0	12:05	2:12
C. Dewar	C	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	8:40	0:00
S. Lorentz	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6:46	0:00
R. Reaves	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	15	3:54	0:00
O. Ekman-Larsson	D	0	1	1	1	2	2	+2	0	22:28	1:55
J. McCabe	D	0	0	0	1	2	5	0	0	22:45	0:09
M. Rielly	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	0	0	20:13	4:59
C. Tanev	D	0	0	0	1	0	8	0	0	19:14	0:03
C. Timmins	D	0	0	0	2	2	0	+1	0	17:52	1:15
J. Hakanpää	D	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	12:34	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Stolarz	30	27	3	.900	60:40	Win
J. Woll	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

HometownConnor McDavid EDM Plays near home (born in Richmond Hill)1 G, 1 A, 4 SOG
HometownEvan Bouchard EDM Plays near home (born in Oakville)2 SOG
HometownZach Hyman EDM Plays in his hometown1 A, 2 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	EDM 3.2, TOR 3.1	EDM 3, TOR 4
Total goals	6.4	7
Shots on goal	EDM 29.8, TOR 28.2	EDM 30, TOR 22
Win chance	EDM 52%	TOR won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
TOR W. Nylander	3.4	4	1.07	0	37%	0
TOR J. Tavares	3.2	1	0.84	1	31%	0
EDM C. McDavid	3.0	4	1.43	2	36%	1
EDM Z. Hyman	2.9	2	0.76	1	35%	0
EDM L. Draisaitl	2.6	3	1.26	2	41%	1
EDM E. Bouchard	2.4	2	0.81	0	15%	0
TOR B. McMann	2.4	3	0.42	2	22%	2
TOR M. Marner	2.2	3	1.16	2	30%	1
EDM J. Skinner	2.0	1	0.49	0	21%	0
EDM M. Ekholm	2.0	3	0.48	0	10%	0
EDM D. Nurse	2.0	2	0.38	0	9%	0
TOR M. Knies	1.9	1	0.62	1	24%	1
EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins	1.9	0	0.76	1	22%	0
TOR M. Domi	1.8	1	0.62	0	16%	0
TOR M. Rielly	1.7	1	0.64	0	10%	0
TOR N. Robertson	1.5	3	0.32	0	15%	0
TOR O. Ekman-Larsson	1.4	1	0.35	1	7%	0
EDM C. Brown	1.4	1	0.28	1	10%	0
EDM A. Henrique	1.4	2	0.44	1	20%	1
EDM V. Podkolzin	1.3	2	0.24	0	12%	0
EDM B. Kulak	1.3	3	0.30	0	6%	0
EDM C. Perry	1.2	1	0.32	0	16%	0
TOR D. Kampf	1.0	0	0.26	0	10%	0
TOR S. Lorentz	0.9	0	0.20	0	11%	0
TOR P. Holmberg	0.9	0	0.28	0	11%	0
EDM M. Janmark	0.9	0	0.30	1	11%	0
TOR C. Dewar	0.9	0	0.20	0	9%	0
TOR J. McCabe	0.9	1	0.33	0	7%	0
EDM T. Emberson	0.8	1	0.18	0	3%	0
TOR C. Timmins	0.8	2	0.36	0	6%	0
EDM D. Ryan	0.8	0	0.17	0	9%	0
EDM T. Stecher	0.7	3	0.11	0	3%	0
TOR J. Hakanpää	0.7	0	0.16	0	4%	0
TOR C. Tanev	0.6	1	0.21	0	3%	0
TOR R. Reaves	0.5	0	0.14	0	6%	0
EDM T. Dermott	0.5	0	0.10	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 28 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.