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Game Recap
EDM4
UTA3
EDM beat UTA 4-3 in overtime, with the chances close: 2.99 expected goals to 2.73. C. McDavid led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). N. Schmaltz had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.8. C. Pickard stopped 28 of 31.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| UTA | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
- 1st 6:17UTAA. Kerfoot0.13 xG
- 1st 17:15UTAL. Cooley0.05 xG
- 2nd 9:44EDMV. Podkolzin0.14 xG
- 2nd 14:01EDML. DraisaitlPP0.22 xG
- 2nd 16:22EDMC. McDavidPP0.12 xG
- 3rd 3:42UTAL. Crouse0.19 xG
- OT 1:18EDMR. Nugent-Hopkins0.11 xG
Team Stats
EDMUTA
32Shots on goal31
2.99Expected goals2.73
63Shot attempts54
225v5 shots on goal29
2/3Power play0/1
8Hits16
7Blocked shots23
2Penalty minutes6
12Giveaways16
12Takeaways8
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
EDM 2.99 xGUTA 2.73 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
EDM Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. McDavid | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 23:46 | 4:55 |
| L. Draisaitl | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 23:16 | 4:55 |
| R. Nugent-Hopkins | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 21:35 | 4:55 |
| C. Perry | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:45 | 4:55 |
| V. Podkolzin | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:17 | 0:00 |
| C. Brown | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:53 | 0:00 |
| A. Henrique | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:44 | 0:00 |
| M. Janmark | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:25 | 0:00 |
| J. Skinner | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 13:29 | 0:00 |
| K. Kapanen | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 13:13 | 0:00 |
| D. Ryan | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9:02 | 0:00 |
| D. Caggiula | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6:02 | 0:00 |
| E. Bouchard | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 23:49 | 4:55 |
| T. Stecher | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 15:56 | 0:00 |
| D. Nurse | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 22:42 | 0:00 |
| M. Ekholm | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 20:45 | 0:00 |
| B. Kulak | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 19:41 | 0:00 |
| T. Emberson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13:34 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Pickard | 31 | 28 | 3 | .903 | 61:18 | Win |
| S. Skinner | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
UTA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Cooley | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:59 | 0:47 |
| N. Bjugstad | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 14:25 | 0:50 |
| L. Crouse | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:20 | 0:51 |
| K. Stenlund | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:51 | 0:10 |
| A. Kerfoot | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:23 | 0:08 |
| C. Keller | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:13 | 1:01 |
| N. Schmaltz | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 18:44 | 1:01 |
| B. Hayton | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:34 | 0:14 |
| M. Maccelli | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:57 | 0:59 |
| J. McBain | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 13:55 | 0:00 |
| D. Guenther | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 12:56 | 0:47 |
| M. Carcone | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:39 | 0:49 |
| O. Maatta | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 23:31 | 0:14 |
| J. Välimäki | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 13:04 | 0:00 |
| R. Bortuzzo | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 2 | 12:16 | 0:00 |
| M. Sergachev | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 25:26 | 1:10 |
| I. Cole | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 23:09 | 0:00 |
| M. Kesselring | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 22:37 | 0:59 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Vejmelka | 32 | 28 | 4 | .875 | 61:18 | OT loss |
| J. Stauber | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | EDM 3.5, UTA 2.9 | EDM 4, UTA 3 |
| Total goals | 6.4 | 7 |
| Shots on goal | EDM 31.5, UTA 25.8 | EDM 32, UTA 31 |
| Win chance | EDM 59% | EDM won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM C. McDavid | 3.1 | 6 | 1.54 | 2 | 38% | 1 |
| EDM L. Draisaitl | 2.4 | 5 | 1.26 | 2 | 41% | 1 |
| UTA D. Guenther | 2.4 | 2 | 0.76 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| UTA C. Keller | 2.4 | 5 | 0.91 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| EDM E. Bouchard | 2.3 | 2 | 0.82 | 2 | 17% | 0 |
| EDM M. Ekholm | 2.1 | 0 | 0.48 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| UTA L. Cooley | 2.1 | 2 | 0.67 | 1 | 23% | 1 |
| EDM J. Skinner | 2.1 | 1 | 0.52 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| EDM D. Nurse | 1.9 | 5 | 0.37 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| UTA N. Schmaltz | 1.8 | 5 | 0.79 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins | 1.8 | 3 | 0.76 | 1 | 22% | 1 |
| UTA M. Sergachev | 1.5 | 2 | 0.65 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| UTA L. Crouse | 1.5 | 2 | 0.38 | 1 | 19% | 1 |
| UTA B. Hayton | 1.5 | 1 | 0.36 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| EDM C. Brown | 1.4 | 1 | 0.32 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| EDM B. Kulak | 1.4 | 2 | 0.31 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| UTA N. Bjugstad | 1.4 | 3 | 0.36 | 1 | 17% | 0 |
| EDM A. Henrique | 1.4 | 2 | 0.47 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| UTA M. Carcone | 1.3 | 2 | 0.29 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| EDM V. Podkolzin | 1.3 | 1 | 0.28 | 1 | 12% | 1 |
| UTA A. Kerfoot | 1.3 | 1 | 0.45 | 1 | 15% | 1 |
| UTA M. Maccelli | 1.3 | 1 | 0.54 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| UTA M. Kesselring | 1.3 | 0 | 0.37 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| EDM C. Perry | 1.1 | 2 | 0.35 | 1 | 17% | 0 |
| UTA K. Stenlund | 1.1 | 1 | 0.18 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| EDM K. Kapanen | 1.0 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| EDM T. Emberson | 0.9 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| UTA J. McBain | 0.9 | 0 | 0.40 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| EDM T. Stecher | 0.8 | 1 | 0.13 | 1 | 3% | 0 |
| UTA I. Cole | 0.8 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| EDM M. Janmark | 0.8 | 1 | 0.31 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| UTA J. Välimäki | 0.7 | 2 | 0.22 | 1 | 3% | 0 |
| EDM D. Ryan | 0.7 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| EDM D. Caggiula | 0.7 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| UTA O. Maatta | 0.7 | 1 | 0.23 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| UTA R. Bortuzzo | 0.3 | 0 | 0.06 | 1 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 25 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.