Game Recap: EDM 5, UTA 2, March 24, 2026

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Game Recap

EDM5

FinalTue, Mar 24, 2026Every game that night

UTA2

EDM beat UTA 5-2, and the chances backed it up: 3.40 expected goals to 1.73. EDM outshot UTA 26 to 18. E. Bouchard led the way with 3 points (0 G, 3 A). T. Jarry stopped 16 of 18.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
EDM	1	3	1	5
UTA	1	1	0	2

1st 11:12UTAA. Kerfoot0.02 xG
1st 14:27EDMJ. Roslovic0.06 xG
2nd 11:24EDMM. SavoieSH0.14 xG
2nd 11:59UTAL. CrousePP0.22 xG
2nd 12:07EDMC. McDavid0.12 xG
2nd 15:04EDMJ. Roslovic0.05 xG
3rd 19:52EDMC. McDavidEN0.93 xG

Team Stats

EDMUTA

26Shots on goal18

3.40Expected goals1.73

60Shot attempts58

235v5 shots on goal13

0/0Power play1/2

19Hits16

24Blocked shots20

4Penalty minutes0

14Giveaways13

4Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

EDM 3.40 xGUTA 1.73 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

EDM25 on goal, 5 scored

UTA17 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

EDM Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. McDavid	C	2	0	2	4	0	1	+2	0	20:42	0:00
J. Roslovic	C	2	0	2	4	1	1	+2	0	15:44	0:00
Z. Hyman	LW	0	1	1	0	7	0	+3	2	17:42	0:00
R. Nugent-Hopkins	C	0	1	1	2	0	3	+3	0	17:08	0:00
M. Savoie	C	1	0	1	4	1	0	+2	0	17:04	0:00
A. Henrique	C	0	1	1	0	0	1	0	0	10:04	0:00
V. Podkolzin	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	+1	0	17:44	0:00
J. Dickinson	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	2	16:36	0:00
K. Kapanen	RW	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	16:03	0:00
J. Samanski	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	10:43	0:00
R. Jarventie	LW	0	0	0	1	0	2	-1	0	8:52	0:00
M. Jones	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	8:32	0:00
E. Bouchard	D	0	3	3	3	0	3	+4	0	23:04	0:00
M. Ekholm	D	0	1	1	3	1	0	+4	0	21:00	0:00
J. Walman	D	0	1	1	1	0	4	+1	0	17:43	0:00
D. Nurse	D	0	0	0	1	2	2	-1	0	21:42	0:00
C. Murphy	D	0	0	0	2	0	2	-1	0	21:05	0:00
T. Emberson	D	0	0	0	1	0	3	+1	0	15:33	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
T. Jarry	18	16	2	.889	60:00	Win
C. Ingram	0	0	0	–	0:00

UTA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	TOI	PP TOI
L. Crouse	LW	1	0	1	3	2	2	-1	19:14	1:17
M. Carcone	LW	0	1	1	1	3	0	0	15:40	1:17
A. Kerfoot	C	1	0	1	2	2	0	-2	12:23	0:13
C. Keller	RW	0	0	0	4	0	1	-2	22:48	1:26
D. Guenther	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	-2	22:12	1:24
L. Cooley	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	-2	19:30	1:22
N. Schmaltz	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-2	18:44	1:29
J. McBain	C	0	0	0	0	3	1	-1	16:30	1:17
J. Peterka	RW	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	15:45	1:17
K. Yamamoto	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	13:38	0:18
K. Stenlund	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	-2	10:42	0:16
B. Hayton	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0:17	0:00
M. Weegar	D	0	1	1	1	3	1	-1	19:58	1:17
S. Durzi	D	0	1	1	1	0	4	-1	18:07	0:32
I. Cole	D	0	1	1	0	0	2	0	15:17	0:20
M. Sergachev	D	0	0	0	0	0	4	-3	22:30	1:10
J. Marino	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	19:48	0:00
N. Schmidt	D	0	0	0	2	0	2	-1	19:29	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
K. Vejmelka	15	11	4	.733	40:00	Loss
V. Vanecek	10	10	0	1.000	17:28

Lines at 5-on-5

EDM

Line 1C. McDavid17:49M. Savoie15:40V. Podkolzin16:48

Line 2Z. Hyman16:05J. Roslovic15:44R. Nugent-Hopkins15:58

Line 3J. Dickinson14:38K. Kapanen13:51J. Samanski10:43

Line 4A. Henrique8:42R. Jarventie8:52M. Jones8:32

Pair 1C. Murphy18:37D. Nurse19:12

Pair 2M. Ekholm17:58E. Bouchard20:07

Pair 3J. Walman17:39T. Emberson15:30

UTA

Line 1C. Keller19:19N. Schmaltz15:50L. Crouse15:54

Line 2L. Cooley17:01J. Peterka13:59D. Guenther18:44

Line 3M. Carcone13:54J. McBain13:10A. Kerfoot12:10

Line 4K. Stenlund10:26K. Yamamoto12:51

Pair 1N. Schmidt19:29J. Marino19:48

Pair 2M. Sergachev19:33M. Weegar18:41

Pair 3I. Cole14:57S. Durzi16:22

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	EDM 3.1, UTA 3.2	EDM 5, UTA 2
Total goals	6.3	7
Shots on goal	EDM 27.8, UTA 27.0	EDM 26, UTA 18
Win chance	UTA 51%	EDM won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
EDM C. McDavid	3.1	4	1.43	2	36%	2
UTA D. Guenther	2.8	1	0.86	0	33%	0
EDM E. Bouchard	2.8	3	0.87	3	16%	0
UTA C. Keller	2.7	4	1.03	0	31%	0
EDM Z. Hyman	2.7	0	0.78	1	37%	0
UTA N. Schmaltz	2.4	0	0.90	0	28%	0
UTA B. Hayton	1.9	0	0.53	0	19%	0
UTA L. Crouse	1.9	3	0.56	1	25%	1
UTA M. Carcone	1.8	1	0.44	1	21%	0
UTA L. Cooley	1.8	1	0.68	0	26%	0
EDM D. Nurse	1.8	1	0.28	0	7%	0
EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins	1.7	2	0.70	1	22%	0
UTA M. Sergachev	1.7	0	0.66	0	12%	0
UTA J. Peterka	1.7	1	0.56	0	22%	0
EDM J. Roslovic	1.6	4	0.44	2	18%	2
EDM M. Ekholm	1.6	3	0.42	1	8%	0
UTA M. Weegar	1.6	1	0.39	1	8%	0
EDM J. Walman	1.6	1	0.30	1	8%	0
EDM M. Savoie	1.6	4	0.44	1	16%	1
EDM K. Kapanen	1.6	0	0.40	0	15%	0
EDM V. Podkolzin	1.5	0	0.38	0	15%	0
UTA J. McBain	1.3	0	0.35	0	13%	0
UTA S. Durzi	1.1	1	0.40	1	8%	0
EDM J. Dickinson	1.1	0	0.28	0	14%	0
EDM C. Murphy	1.0	2	0.19	0	5%	0
UTA K. Stenlund	1.0	0	0.31	0	12%	0
EDM A. Henrique	1.0	0	0.22	1	12%	0
EDM M. Jones	0.9	0	0.18	0	8%	0
UTA A. Kerfoot	0.9	2	0.34	1	11%	1
UTA K. Yamamoto	0.9	0	0.30	0	13%	0
UTA N. Schmidt	0.9	2	0.28	0	6%	0
EDM R. Jarventie	0.7	1	0.15	0	7%	0
UTA I. Cole	0.7	0	0.22	1	3%	0
UTA J. Marino	0.7	1	0.38	0	4%	0
EDM T. Emberson	0.6	1	0.14	0	2%	0
EDM J. Samanski	0.4	0	0.22	0	10%	0

Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.