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Game Recap
EDM5
Final/OTTue, Apr 7, 2026Every game that night
UTA6

UTA beat EDM 6-5 in overtime, and the chances backed it up: 4.00 expected goals to 2.56. N. Schmaltz led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). C. Dach had 3 shots on goal against our projection of 0.5. K. Vejmelka stopped 21 of 26.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdOTT
EDM31105
UTA13116
  1. 1st 1:53UTAJ. Peterka0.05 xG
  2. 1st 2:04EDMC. Lazar0.14 xG
  3. 1st 8:56EDMC. McDavidPP0.19 xG
  4. 1st 14:43EDMR. Nugent-Hopkins0.13 xG
  5. 2nd 10:28UTAN. Schmaltz0.16 xG
  6. 2nd 15:19UTAL. Cooley0.05 xG
  7. 2nd 16:06EDMV. Podkolzin0.26 xG
  8. 2nd 19:24UTAN. SchmaltzSH0.10 xG
  9. 3rd 2:09EDMC. Dach0.16 xG
  10. 3rd 12:56UTAA. Kerfoot0.08 xG
  11. OT 0:33UTAC. KellerPP0.14 xG

Team Stats

EDMUTA
26Shots on goal31
2.56Expected goals4.00
45Shot attempts81
225v5 shots on goal24
1/3Power play1/3
24Hits19
13Blocked shots6
6Penalty minutes6
14Giveaways27
2Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

EDM 2.56 xGUTA 4.00 xGGoal

012341st2nd3rdOTUTA goal, 1:53EDM goal, 2:04EDM goal, 8:56EDM goal, 14:43UTA goal, 10:28UTA goal, 15:19EDM goal, 16:06UTA goal, 19:24EDM goal, 2:09UTA goal, 12:56UTA goal, 0:33

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

EDM26 on goal, 5 scored
UTA31 on goal, 6 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

EDM Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
C. McDavidC112400-1022:052:58
K. KapanenRW011220-1016:581:22
R. Nugent-HopkinsC101300-2016:512:49
V. PodkolzinRW101231+1015:431:33
J. DickinsonC0112200015:200:00
T. FredericC011210+1014:440:00
C. DachC101350+1014:010:00
A. HenriqueC011101-1011:361:21
C. LazarC101130007:510:00
M. SavoieC0000000219:442:57
J. RoslovicC000003-3017:122:49
M. JonesLW000010+107:260:00
D. NurseD011222+2023:150:00
E. BouchardD011001-1222:333:47
M. EkholmD011101+1020:201:31
C. MurphyD000032+1023:440:00
J. WalmanD000200-2015:100:33
T. EmbersonD000122-2213:060:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
T. Jarry31256.80660:33OT loss
C. Ingram000–0:00

UTA Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
C. KellerRW1123000219:352:15
N. SchmaltzC202400+1019:232:08
D. GuentherRW022410+1018:102:55
A. KerfootC112100+1017:041:56
M. CarconeLW0221200015:111:14
L. CrouseLW0112500021:011:57
L. CooleyC101320+1018:282:02
J. PeterkaRW1013000016:371:53
K. YamamotoRW0002410017:100:00
K. StenlundC000101-1011:110:01
B. TanevLW000120-107:090:00
S. DurziD022000+2015:240:00
M. SergachevD0113020025:342:24
J. MarinoD0111000018:360:03
I. ColeD011101+2017:500:00
M. WeegarD0001210418:591:44
N. SchmidtD000010-1017:130:00
N. DeSimoneD000000-103:190:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
K. Vejmelka26215.80860:06Win
V. Vanecek000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

EDM

Line 1C. McDavid18:10M. Savoie14:23V. Podkolzin14:10
Line 2T. Frederic14:17C. Dach13:34J. Dickinson13:17
Line 3K. Kapanen14:05J. Roslovic14:23R. Nugent-Hopkins13:23
Line 4A. Henrique8:23M. Jones7:26C. Lazar7:51
Pair 1C. Murphy21:47D. Nurse21:18
Pair 2M. Ekholm17:40E. Bouchard17:11
Pair 3J. Walman13:08T. Emberson11:39

UTA

Line 1L. Crouse16:18C. Keller16:53N. Schmaltz15:40
Line 2D. Guenther14:50L. Cooley16:07K. Yamamoto17:10
Line 3M. Carcone13:30J. Peterka14:17A. Kerfoot12:58
Line 4K. Stenlund8:27B. Tanev7:09
Pair 1M. Sergachev19:50M. Weegar17:15
Pair 2J. Marino17:13N. Schmidt15:48
Pair 3I. Cole14:24S. Durzi14:57

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreEDM 3.3, UTA 3.3EDM 5, UTA 6
Total goals6.611
Shots on goalEDM 27.8, UTA 27.0EDM 26, UTA 31
Win chanceUTA 51%UTA won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
EDM C. McDavid3.141.46237%1
UTA D. Guenther2.840.86233%0
EDM E. Bouchard2.700.93116%0
UTA C. Keller2.631.01230%1
UTA N. Schmaltz2.240.84227%2
EDM M. Savoie2.100.59022%0
EDM D. Nurse2.020.3117%0
UTA L. Cooley1.830.75128%1
EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins1.830.74123%1
UTA M. Carcone1.710.40219%0
EDM J. Roslovic1.700.49020%0
EDM J. Walman1.620.3208%0
UTA M. Sergachev1.630.68111%0
UTA L. Crouse1.620.47122%0
UTA J. Peterka1.630.52121%1
EDM V. Podkolzin1.520.40116%1
UTA M. Weegar1.510.3808%0
EDM M. Ekholm1.510.4117%0
EDM K. Kapanen1.520.37115%0
EDM A. Henrique1.110.27114%0
EDM C. Murphy1.000.2205%0
UTA S. Durzi1.000.3427%0
EDM J. Dickinson1.020.27113%0
UTA A. Kerfoot1.010.38213%1
EDM M. Jones1.000.2009%0
UTA N. Schmidt0.900.2706%0
EDM T. Frederic0.920.18111%0
UTA K. Stenlund0.910.28011%0
UTA K. Yamamoto0.920.29013%0
UTA N. DeSimone0.900.2405%0
UTA B. Tanev0.710.1508%0
UTA I. Cole0.610.2213%0
EDM C. Lazar0.610.1417%1
EDM T. Emberson0.610.1502%0
UTA J. Marino0.610.3514%0
EDM C. Dach0.530.1215%1

Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.