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Game Recap
EDM6
FinalSat, Oct 17, 2026Every game that night
UTA2

EDM beat UTA 6-2, and the chances backed it up: 3.09 expected goals to 2.33. C. McDavid led the way with 5 points (2 G, 3 A). T. Jarry stopped 26 of 28.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
EDM3216
UTA0022
  1. 1st 0:40EDMC. McDavid0.20 xG
  2. 1st 13:21EDMZ. HymanPP0.29 xG
  3. 1st 13:53EDMM. Joseph0.21 xG
  4. 2nd 10:57EDMK. Kapanen0.21 xG
  5. 2nd 13:48EDML. Draisaitl0.24 xG
  6. 3rd 4:25UTAJ. Marino0.07 xG
  7. 3rd 6:00UTAM. Sergachev0.04 xG
  8. 3rd 10:17EDMC. McDavid0.35 xG

Team Stats

EDMUTA
21Shots on goal28
3.09Expected goals2.33
43Shot attempts61
205v5 shots on goal25
1/1Power play0/2
24Hits39
19Blocked shots7
9Penalty minutes7
20Giveaways17
3Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

EDM 3.09 xGUTA 2.33 xGGoal

00.511.522.533.51st2nd3rdEDM goal, 0:40EDM goal, 13:21EDM goal, 13:53EDM goal, 10:57EDM goal, 13:48UTA goal, 4:25UTA goal, 6:00EDM goal, 10:17

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

EDM21 on goal, 6 scored
UTA27 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

EDM Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
C. McDavidC235211+4019:520:08
L. DraisaitlC112110+4018:310:08
V. PodkolzinRW022041+3017:300:08
K. KapanenRW101220+1018:000:00
Z. HymanLW1011100216:320:08
M. JosephRW1012200012:350:00
C. DachC0003410016:520:00
O. MichaelsRW0001110013:060:00
A. FormentonLW0001310012:060:00
I. HowardLW000001-1010:350:00
F. HallanderC000131-1010:270:00
T. FredericC000101-159:230:00
E. BouchardD011300+3024:040:08
M. EkholmD011101+3022:430:00
R. SheaD000001-1021:120:00
C. MurphyD000204-1221:040:00
J. WalmanD000005+1016:340:00
T. EmbersonD000020+1014:540:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
T. Jarry28262.92960:00Win
D. Levi000–0:00

UTA Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
K. StenlundC011100+1013:170:10
D. ButLW011120+1013:040:07
L. CooleyC000110-1017:512:47
N. SchmaltzC000231-3017:002:47
D. GuentherRW000210-1016:542:42
K. YamamotoRW000230-1216:531:10
C. KellerRW000120-1016:432:47
V. TrocheckC000210-1015:380:56
A. LeeLW000310-3015:231:03
B. HaytonC0001110015:111:03
L. CrouseLW000160-2012:530:00
J. McBainC000180+1512:190:06
M. SergachevD1014000021:002:43
J. MarinoD101220+1020:341:07
M. WeegarD000162-2022:380:11
A. PeekeD000101-1017:490:00
D. SimashevD000210-2017:440:00
N. SchmidtD000012-1017:010:21
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
K. Vejmelka17125.70633:48Loss
S. Cossa431.75026:12

Lines at 5-on-5

EDM

Line 1L. Draisaitl18:10V. Podkolzin17:20C. McDavid17:48
Line 2Z. Hyman16:24C. Dach16:52K. Kapanen15:58
Line 3M. Joseph11:50O. Michaels11:43A. Formenton10:33
Line 4F. Hallander10:27I. Howard10:35T. Frederic9:23
Pair 1M. Ekholm20:41E. Bouchard22:32
Pair 2C. Murphy19:46R. Shea19:07
Pair 3T. Emberson14:54J. Walman15:17

UTA

Line 1K. Yamamoto15:43B. Hayton14:08A. Lee14:20
Line 2V. Trocheck14:42L. Cooley15:04D. Guenther14:12
Line 3N. Schmaltz14:13C. Keller13:55L. Crouse12:45
Line 4K. Stenlund12:59D. But12:57J. McBain12:13
Pair 1N. Schmidt16:40J. Marino19:27
Pair 2M. Weegar22:19M. Sergachev18:10
Pair 3A. Peeke17:49D. Simashev17:44

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

5 of 18 overs hit (28%).

PlayerLineOverUnderSOGResult
EDM C. McDavid3.5+140-1502Under
UTA C. Keller2.5+110-1201Under
UTA D. Guenther2.5-130+1102Under
EDM E. Bouchard2.5-104-1053Over
EDM L. Draisaitl2.5-135+1081Under
UTA N. Schmaltz2.5+120-1402Under
EDM V. Podkolzin2.5+130-1450Under
EDM Z. Hyman2.5+110-1301Under
UTA A. Lee1.5-130+1003Over
UTA B. Hayton1.5-111+1001Under
EDM I. Howard1.5+135-2000Under
EDM J. Walman1.5+110-1350Under
EDM K. Kapanen1.5-110-1352Over
UTA L. Cooley1.5-135+1101Under
UTA L. Crouse1.5+100-1201Under
UTA M. Sergachev1.5-150+1254Over
UTA M. Weegar1.5-110-1151Under
UTA V. Trocheck1.5+115-1402Over

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreEDM 3.1, UTA 3.4EDM 6, UTA 2
Total goals6.58
Shots on goalEDM 26.4, UTA 28.0EDM 21, UTA 28
Win chanceUTA 54%EDM won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
EDM C. McDavid3.221.54539%2
UTA D. Guenther2.920.90033%0
EDM L. Draisaitl2.611.32241%1
UTA C. Keller2.611.05030%0
EDM E. Bouchard2.530.98116%0
UTA N. Schmaltz2.520.92030%0
EDM Z. Hyman2.410.80136%1
EDM V. Podkolzin2.100.65225%0
UTA L. Cooley2.010.89031%0
UTA A. Lee2.030.48021%0
UTA L. Crouse1.810.53024%0
UTA M. Sergachev1.740.72111%1
EDM K. Kapanen1.720.51120%1
EDM A. Formenton1.710.39018%0
UTA M. Weegar1.610.4008%0
UTA B. Hayton1.610.39015%0
UTA V. Trocheck1.520.65022%0
EDM J. Walman1.500.3007%0
EDM M. Ekholm1.410.4418%0
UTA K. Yamamoto1.320.44018%0
UTA D. But1.210.21110%0
UTA J. McBain1.110.32012%0
UTA N. Schmidt1.100.3007%0
EDM I. Howard1.100.2208%0
EDM F. Hallander1.110.27010%0
EDM C. Murphy1.120.2506%0
EDM O. Michaels1.010.34014%0
EDM R. Shea1.000.3907%0
EDM M. Joseph1.020.30110%1
EDM T. Frederic1.010.20010%0
UTA K. Stenlund0.910.29112%0
EDM C. Dach0.930.2108%0
UTA A. Peeke0.810.1804%0
UTA D. Simashev0.820.1102%0
UTA J. Marino0.720.4016%1
EDM T. Emberson0.500.1302%0

Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.