Game Recap: EDM 2, VAN 3, January 18, 2025

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Game Recap

EDM2

FinalSat, Jan 18, 2025Every game that night

VAN3

VAN beat EDM 3-2, with the chances close: 1.97 expected goals to 1.44. VAN outshot EDM 27 to 15. Q. Hughes led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). Q. Hughes had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.2. T. Demko stopped 13 of 15.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
EDM	0	2	0	2
VAN	3	0	0	3

1st 14:38VANQ. HughesPP0.02 xG
1st 15:49VAND. Heinen0.30 xG
1st 18:00VANQ. HughesPP0.11 xG
2nd 4:01EDML. Draisaitl0.08 xG
2nd 13:38EDML. DraisaitlPP0.12 xG

Team Stats

EDMVAN

15Shots on goal27

1.44Expected goals1.97

44Shot attempts53

145v5 shots on goal21

1/2Power play2/4

9Hits18

18Blocked shots13

33Penalty minutes29

17Giveaways15

6Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

EDM 1.44 xGVAN 1.97 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

EDM13 on goal, 2 scored

VAN27 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

EDM Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
L. Draisaitl	C	2	0	2	2	0	0	0	2	23:42	2:05
C. McDavid	C	0	1	1	2	1	0	+1	15	24:30	2:05
R. Nugent-Hopkins	C	0	1	1	0	1	2	0	2	19:04	2:05
Z. Hyman	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	+1	2	23:02	2:05
V. Podkolzin	RW	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	0	14:43	0:00
V. Arvidsson	LW	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	14:33	0:51
C. Brown	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	14:02	0:00
A. Henrique	C	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	13:20	0:51
M. Janmark	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	11:09	0:00
C. Perry	RW	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	11:02	0:51
N. Philp	C	0	0	0	1	1	3	0	0	10:17	0:00
M. Ekholm	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	6	24:29	0:51
E. Bouchard	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	+1	4	24:07	2:05
B. Kulak	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	20:06	0:00
D. Nurse	D	0	0	0	2	2	1	0	2	18:35	0:51
T. Emberson	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	12:52	0:00
J. Brown	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	9:34	0:00
T. Stecher	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	8:27	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Skinner	27	24	3	.889	57:39	Loss
C. Pickard	0	0	0	–	0:00

VAN Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Miller	C	0	2	2	1	1	1	0	2	20:25	4:06
B. Boeser	RW	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	16:23	4:11
D. Heinen	LW	1	0	1	3	1	0	0	0	12:56	0:23
P. Di Giuseppe	LW	0	1	1	1	1	1	+1	0	9:24	0:00
C. Garland	RW	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	2	22:27	4:21
E. Pettersson	C	0	0	0	2	2	2	0	2	20:58	4:03
P. Suter	C	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	18:44	0:49
J. DeBrusk	LW	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	15:51	0:26
K. Sherwood	LW	0	0	0	0	3	1	-1	2	13:19	0:31
T. Blueger	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	12:39	0:00
N. Hoglander	LW	0	0	0	3	2	1	0	0	9:13	0:00
M. Sasson	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	+1	0	8:25	0:00
Q. Hughes	D	2	0	2	5	1	1	0	0	24:57	4:23
T. Myers	D	0	1	1	0	0	1	0	17	22:24	0:11
F. Hronek	D	0	0	0	2	0	2	-1	0	22:27	0:27
D. Forbort	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	2	17:08	0:00
C. Soucy	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	+1	2	16:17	0:04
V. Desharnais	D	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	13:07	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
T. Demko	15	13	2	.867	60:00	Win
K. Lankinen	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamVasily Podkolzin EDM Faces VAN, his team until May 20240 SOG
HometownRyan Nugent-Hopkins EDM Plays near home (born in Burnaby)1 A, 0 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	EDM 3.2, VAN 2.7	EDM 2, VAN 3
Total goals	5.9	5
Shots on goal	EDM 28.8, VAN 24.2	EDM 15, VAN 27
Win chance	EDM 58%	VAN won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
EDM C. McDavid	3.0	2	1.61	1	38%	0
EDM L. Draisaitl	2.8	2	1.39	2	42%	2
EDM Z. Hyman	2.8	2	0.80	0	35%	0
EDM E. Bouchard	2.4	1	0.79	0	17%	0
VAN Q. Hughes	2.2	5	0.96	2	13%	2
VAN C. Garland	2.2	3	0.63	0	23%	0
EDM V. Arvidsson	2.2	1	0.57	0	19%	0
EDM D. Nurse	2.1	2	0.39	0	11%	0
VAN J. DeBrusk	2.0	2	0.57	0	27%	0
VAN E. Pettersson	1.9	2	0.80	0	28%	0
EDM M. Ekholm	1.8	1	0.42	0	13%	0
VAN K. Sherwood	1.8	0	0.46	0	21%	0
VAN B. Boeser	1.8	1	0.66	1	28%	0
VAN J. Miller	1.8	1	0.81	2	25%	0
EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins	1.8	0	0.72	1	21%	0
VAN P. Suter	1.6	2	0.39	0	19%	0
EDM V. Podkolzin	1.5	0	0.34	0	13%	0
EDM B. Kulak	1.4	1	0.30	0	8%	0
VAN F. Hronek	1.3	2	0.44	0	7%	0
EDM A. Henrique	1.2	0	0.41	0	18%	0
EDM C. Brown	1.2	0	0.33	0	10%	0
VAN M. Sasson	1.2	1	0.29	0	11%	0
VAN N. Hoglander	1.1	3	0.30	0	16%	0
VAN D. Heinen	1.1	3	0.39	1	17%	1
VAN T. Blueger	1.1	0	0.34	0	10%	0
VAN P. Giuseppe	1.0	1	0.22	1	10%	0
VAN T. Myers	1.0	0	0.26	1	4%	0
EDM C. Perry	1.0	1	0.30	0	14%	0
EDM N. Philp	0.9	1	0.22	0	8%	0
VAN C. Soucy	0.8	1	0.18	0	6%	0
EDM M. Janmark	0.7	0	0.28	0	9%	0
EDM T. Emberson	0.7	1	0.20	0	3%	0
EDM J. Brown	0.7	0	0.12	0	4%	0
EDM T. Stecher	0.7	0	0.12	0	4%	0
VAN D. Forbort	0.6	0	0.15	0	4%	0
VAN V. Desharnais	0.5	0	0.12	0	1%	0

Shots on goal: 25 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.