Game Recap: EDM 0, VGK 1, December 3, 2024

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Game Recap

EDM0

VGK1

VGK beat EDM 1-0 despite fewer good chances: 1.39 expected goals to 2.30. EDM outshot VGK 28 to 16. A. Hill stopped 28 of 28.

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
EDM	0	0	0	0
VGK	1	0	0	1

EDMVGK

28Shots on goal16

2.30Expected goals1.39

66Shot attempts43

235v5 shots on goal16

0/0Power play0/0

12Hits6

16Blocked shots22

14Giveaways19

8Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

EDM 2.30 xGVGK 1.39 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

EDM28 on goal, 0 scored

VGK16 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Player	Pos	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	TOI	PP TOI
C. McDavid	C	4	0	0	0	24:58	0:00
L. Draisaitl	C	1	0	0	-1	21:46	0:00
R. Nugent-Hopkins	C	2	0	0	-1	18:23	0:00
J. Skinner	LW	3	0	0	0	15:50	0:00
K. Kapanen	RW	2	1	0	0	15:50	0:00
A. Henrique	C	2	0	1	0	15:13	0:00
C. Brown	RW	1	1	1	-1	15:09	0:00
V. Podkolzin	RW	0	1	0	0	14:04	0:00
M. Janmark	C	0	0	0	0	13:29	0:00
C. Perry	RW	0	0	0	0	13:14	0:00
D. Ryan	C	0	2	1	0	8:51	0:00
D. Caggiula	LW	1	1	0	0	5:44	0:00
E. Bouchard	D	3	0	1	-1	26:36	0:00
M. Ekholm	D	1	2	2	-1	25:28	0:00
D. Nurse	D	4	2	3	0	22:17	0:00
B. Kulak	D	2	0	3	0	19:05	0:00
T. Emberson	D	2	1	2	0	14:15	0:00
T. Stecher	D	0	1	2	0	12:32	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Skinner	16	15	1	.938	57:16	Loss
C. Pickard	0	0	0	–	0:00

Player	Pos	G	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	TOI	PP TOI
I. Barbashev	LW	1	1	2	0	1	+1	21:40	0:00
J. Eichel	C	0	0	0	0	0	+1	21:35	0:00
P. Dorofeyev	RW	0	0	3	0	2	0	19:06	0:00
W. Karlsson	C	0	0	1	0	2	0	18:56	0:00
V. Olofsson	LW	0	0	0	0	0	+1	15:11	0:00
B. Howden	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	15:07	0:00
T. Hertl	C	0	0	1	2	2	0	14:15	0:00
K. Kolesar	RW	0	0	0	2	3	0	14:15	0:00
N. Roy	C	0	0	1	0	2	0	13:15	0:00
C. Schwindt	RW	0	0	1	0	0	0	9:12	0:00
T. Pearson	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	9:10	0:00
A. Holtz	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	8:08	0:00
B. McNabb	D	0	0	1	0	3	0	24:14	0:00
A. Pietrangelo	D	0	0	0	0	1	+1	22:39	0:00
S. Theodore	D	0	0	1	0	2	0	20:47	0:00
N. Hanifin	D	0	0	4	0	0	+1	20:26	0:00
K. Korczak	D	0	0	1	0	1	0	16:44	0:00
N. Hague	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	15:20	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Hill	28	28	0	1.000	60:00	Win
I. Samsonov	0	0	0	–	0:00

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
VGK J. Eichel	3.3	0	1.11	0	33%	0
EDM C. McDavid	3.2	4	1.51	0	38%	0
EDM L. Draisaitl	2.6	1	1.24	0	40%	0
VGK P. Dorofeyev	2.6	3	0.63	0	30%	0
EDM E. Bouchard	2.2	3	0.79	0	14%	0
EDM J. Skinner	2.1	3	0.50	0	22%	0
VGK W. Karlsson	2.1	1	0.70	0	24%	0
EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins	2.0	2	0.79	0	23%	0
EDM M. Ekholm	2.0	1	0.45	0	9%	0
EDM D. Nurse	1.9	4	0.36	0	9%	0
VGK T. Hertl	1.8	1	0.57	0	22%	0
VGK S. Theodore	1.8	1	0.67	0	10%	0
VGK A. Pietrangelo	1.7	0	0.50	0	9%	0
VGK V. Olofsson	1.6	0	0.46	0	23%	0
VGK N. Hanifin	1.6	4	0.48	0	10%	0
VGK I. Barbashev	1.5	2	0.70	1	24%	1
EDM C. Brown	1.5	1	0.33	0	11%	0
VGK N. Roy	1.5	1	0.51	0	18%	0
EDM A. Henrique	1.5	2	0.46	0	21%	0
EDM B. Kulak	1.4	2	0.30	0	6%	0
EDM V. Podkolzin	1.3	0	0.29	0	13%	0
VGK B. Howden	1.3	0	0.37	0	19%	0
VGK A. Holtz	1.3	0	0.31	0	14%	0
EDM C. Perry	1.1	0	0.33	0	16%	0
VGK T. Pearson	1.1	0	0.30	0	12%	0
EDM K. Kapanen	1.1	2	0.29	0	11%	0
VGK B. McNabb	1.1	1	0.27	0	5%	0
VGK K. Kolesar	1.1	0	0.31	0	13%	0
VGK N. Hague	1.1	0	0.17	0	4%	0
EDM T. Emberson	0.9	2	0.20	0	3%	0
VGK K. Korczak	0.9	1	0.23	0	3%	0
EDM M. Janmark	0.9	0	0.31	0	11%	0
EDM T. Stecher	0.8	0	0.14	0	3%	0
VGK C. Schwindt	0.7	1	0.23	0	7%	0
EDM D. Ryan	0.7	0	0.16	0	8%	0
EDM D. Caggiula	0.7	1	0.15	0	7%	0

Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.