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Game Recap
EDM3
VGK2
EDM beat VGK 3-2, with the chances close: 1.88 expected goals to 1.74. P. Dorofeyev led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). C. Pickard stopped 20 of 22.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| VGK | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
- 1st 4:34VGKN. Roy0.14 xG
- 2nd 0:19EDMJ. Walman0.05 xG
- 2nd 16:03EDML. DraisaitlPP0.15 xG
- 2nd 18:20EDMV. Arvidsson0.10 xG
- 3rd 2:35VGKP. Dorofeyev0.04 xG
Team Stats
EDMVGK
20Shots on goal22
1.88Expected goals1.74
44Shot attempts51
175v5 shots on goal17
1/4Power play0/1
30Hits13
14Blocked shots6
2Penalty minutes6
13Giveaways14
5Takeaways2
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
EDM 1.88 xGVGK 1.74 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
EDM Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Draisaitl | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 23:05 | 4:42 |
| R. Nugent-Hopkins | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:29 | 4:26 |
| V. Arvidsson | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:58 | 1:14 |
| V. Podkolzin | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:14 | 0:20 |
| A. Henrique | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:56 | 1:35 |
| K. Kapanen | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:06 | 1:31 |
| Z. Hyman | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 20:24 | 4:28 |
| J. Skinner | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:30 | 3:34 |
| M. Janmark | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:24 | 0:00 |
| C. Brown | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:11 | 0:00 |
| C. Perry | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 9:50 | 1:31 |
| M. Jones | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6:11 | 0:00 |
| E. Bouchard | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 23:46 | 4:23 |
| J. Walman | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 20:38 | 1:52 |
| D. Nurse | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 23:51 | 1:49 |
| B. Kulak | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 18:31 | 0:00 |
| T. Stecher | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 15:31 | 0:00 |
| T. Emberson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 13:15 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Pickard | 22 | 20 | 2 | .909 | 59:10 | Win |
| O. Rodrigue | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
VGK Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P. Dorofeyev | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 16:49 | 1:26 |
| N. Roy | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 12:53 | 0:34 |
| W. Karlsson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:57 | 1:26 |
| M. Stone | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 17:28 | 1:26 |
| J. Eichel | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 17:03 | 1:26 |
| B. Saad | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 15:45 | 0:00 |
| B. Howden | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:20 | 0:00 |
| I. Barbashev | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 15:12 | 0:31 |
| R. Smith | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:25 | 0:33 |
| V. Olofsson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13:04 | 0:34 |
| K. Kolesar | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:25 | 0:01 |
| T. Pearson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:23 | 0:00 |
| K. Korczak | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 15:30 | 0:00 |
| Z. Whitecloud | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 21:09 | 0:00 |
| N. Hanifin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:52 | 0:55 |
| N. Hague | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 20:34 | 0:00 |
| S. Theodore | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 20:06 | 1:05 |
| B. McNabb | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 18:24 | 0:03 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | EDM 3.1, VGK 3.5 | EDM 3, VGK 2 |
| Total goals | 6.6 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | EDM 28.8, VGK 30.2 | EDM 20, VGK 22 |
| Win chance | VGK 56% | EDM won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM L. Draisaitl | 3.1 | 2 | 1.26 | 1 | 41% | 1 |
| VGK J. Eichel | 2.8 | 2 | 1.02 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| VGK P. Dorofeyev | 2.7 | 4 | 0.60 | 2 | 29% | 1 |
| EDM Z. Hyman | 2.6 | 3 | 0.64 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| EDM E. Bouchard | 2.3 | 1 | 0.67 | 2 | 13% | 0 |
| EDM J. Skinner | 2.2 | 0 | 0.52 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| EDM V. Arvidsson | 2.2 | 4 | 0.49 | 1 | 19% | 1 |
| EDM D. Nurse | 2.1 | 1 | 0.37 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| VGK W. Karlsson | 2.0 | 2 | 0.60 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| VGK M. Stone | 1.9 | 0 | 0.88 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins | 1.9 | 3 | 0.68 | 1 | 22% | 0 |
| EDM J. Walman | 1.9 | 4 | 0.36 | 1 | 10% | 1 |
| VGK B. Saad | 1.8 | 1 | 0.47 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| VGK S. Theodore | 1.7 | 2 | 0.67 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| VGK N. Hanifin | 1.7 | 2 | 0.49 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| VGK V. Olofsson | 1.6 | 1 | 0.45 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| VGK R. Smith | 1.5 | 2 | 0.48 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| VGK I. Barbashev | 1.5 | 1 | 0.63 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| VGK N. Roy | 1.4 | 1 | 0.44 | 1 | 16% | 1 |
| EDM C. Brown | 1.4 | 0 | 0.32 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| EDM V. Podkolzin | 1.3 | 1 | 0.26 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| VGK B. Howden | 1.3 | 0 | 0.40 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| EDM A. Henrique | 1.3 | 0 | 0.40 | 1 | 19% | 0 |
| VGK T. Pearson | 1.3 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| EDM B. Kulak | 1.3 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| VGK N. Hague | 1.2 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| EDM C. Perry | 1.2 | 0 | 0.32 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| EDM K. Kapanen | 1.0 | 1 | 0.26 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| VGK K. Korczak | 1.0 | 0 | 0.27 | 1 | 3% | 0 |
| VGK Z. Whitecloud | 1.0 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| VGK K. Kolesar | 1.0 | 2 | 0.30 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| VGK B. McNabb | 0.9 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| EDM M. Janmark | 0.9 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| EDM M. Jones | 0.8 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| EDM T. Emberson | 0.7 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| EDM T. Stecher | 0.7 | 0 | 0.10 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 18 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.