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Game Recap
EDM4
VGK2
EDM beat VGK 4-2, and the chances backed it up: 4.26 expected goals to 2.48. C. McDavid led the way with 2 points (0 G, 2 A). C. Ingram stopped 24 of 26.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| VGK | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
- 2nd 3:21EDMT. Frederic0.06 xG
- 2nd 13:09VGKN. Hanifin0.03 xG
- 3rd 2:34EDMV. Podkolzin0.04 xG
- 3rd 11:53EDML. Draisaitl0.15 xG
- 3rd 16:43VGKJ. EichelSH0.02 xG
- 3rd 18:03EDMK. KapanenEN0.94 xG
Team Stats
EDMVGK
19Shots on goal26
4.26Expected goals2.48
45Shot attempts64
135v5 shots on goal21
0/2Power play0/2
26Hits15
19Blocked shots11
8Penalty minutes6
12Giveaways12
5Takeaways4
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
EDM 4.26 xGVGK 2.48 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
EDM Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. McDavid | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 21:37 | 3:09 |
| L. Draisaitl | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:59 | 3:08 |
| K. Kapanen | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:56 | 0:30 |
| V. Podkolzin | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 15:05 | 0:22 |
| T. Frederic | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 10:59 | 0:00 |
| C. Dach | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 5:05 | 0:00 |
| R. Nugent-Hopkins | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:11 | 2:25 |
| Z. Hyman | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:33 | 3:04 |
| J. Dickinson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 15:33 | 0:38 |
| M. Savoie | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:27 | 1:27 |
| J. Roslovic | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:14 | 0:22 |
| J. Samanski | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 7:39 | 0:00 |
| E. Bouchard | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 21:51 | 3:09 |
| M. Ekholm | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 2 | 14:12 | 0:00 |
| D. Nurse | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 23:14 | 0:00 |
| C. Murphy | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 22:33 | 0:56 |
| J. Walman | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | +2 | 2 | 19:23 | 0:50 |
| T. Emberson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 16:29 | 0:00 |
VGK Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Marner | RW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 18:29 | 2:51 |
| J. Eichel | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 21:40 | 2:58 |
| I. Barbashev | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:11 | 1:19 |
| P. Dorofeyev | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:04 | 2:39 |
| T. Hertl | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 15:49 | 2:44 |
| C. Sissons | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15:43 | 0:54 |
| B. Howden | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 15:29 | 1:03 |
| B. Bowman | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 15:27 | 2:58 |
| N. Dowd | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:54 | 0:00 |
| C. Smith | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:17 | 0:00 |
| K. Kolesar | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 9:26 | 0:00 |
| B. Saad | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 8:36 | 0:00 |
| N. Hanifin | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | +1 | 0 | 21:15 | 0:15 |
| S. Theodore | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 21:36 | 1:09 |
| R. Andersson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 20:25 | 0:55 |
| B. McNabb | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:33 | 0:00 |
| K. Korczak | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:01 | 0:15 |
| J. Lauzon | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 0 | 14:41 | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
EDM
Line 1L. Draisaitl16:26V. Podkolzin14:30J. Roslovic11:52
Line 2Z. Hyman14:54C. McDavid14:36R. Nugent-Hopkins14:30
Line 3J. Dickinson12:08K. Kapanen13:14M. Savoie11:34
Line 4J. Samanski7:39T. Frederic10:59C. Dach5:05
Pair 1D. Nurse21:07T. Emberson16:11
Pair 3M. Ekholm11:25E. Bouchard15:20
VGK
Line 1I. Barbashev15:47J. Eichel15:41B. Bowman11:53
Line 2C. Sissons14:19C. Smith12:17N. Dowd11:36
Line 3M. Marner12:42P. Dorofeyev12:54B. Howden12:31
Line 4B. Saad8:06K. Kolesar9:26T. Hertl11:21
Pair 1B. McNabb17:02S. Theodore18:44
Pair 2N. Hanifin18:37K. Korczak14:37
Pair 3R. Andersson17:08J. Lauzon12:19
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | EDM 3.2, VGK 3.4 | EDM 4, VGK 2 |
| Total goals | 6.5 | 6 |
| Shots on goal | EDM 26.5, VGK 27.9 | EDM 19, VGK 26 |
| Win chance | VGK 53% | EDM won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK J. Eichel | 3.4 | 5 | 1.19 | 1 | 32% | 1 |
| EDM C. McDavid | 3.3 | 1 | 1.54 | 2 | 36% | 0 |
| VGK P. Dorofeyev | 2.8 | 5 | 0.72 | 0 | 33% | 0 |
| EDM Z. Hyman | 2.8 | 1 | 0.85 | 0 | 37% | 0 |
| EDM L. Draisaitl | 2.6 | 2 | 1.31 | 1 | 39% | 1 |
| EDM E. Bouchard | 2.4 | 1 | 0.93 | 1 | 17% | 0 |
| VGK T. Hertl | 2.2 | 2 | 0.73 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| VGK M. Marner | 1.9 | 1 | 1.05 | 2 | 27% | 0 |
| EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins | 1.8 | 3 | 0.76 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| EDM D. Nurse | 1.7 | 1 | 0.32 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| VGK I. Barbashev | 1.7 | 2 | 0.70 | 1 | 25% | 0 |
| VGK R. Andersson | 1.7 | 2 | 0.43 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| EDM J. Roslovic | 1.7 | 1 | 0.45 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| VGK S. Theodore | 1.7 | 2 | 0.65 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| EDM J. Walman | 1.6 | 1 | 0.38 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| VGK N. Hanifin | 1.6 | 2 | 0.39 | 1 | 8% | 1 |
| VGK B. Bowman | 1.5 | 3 | 0.60 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| EDM M. Ekholm | 1.5 | 0 | 0.46 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| EDM K. Kapanen | 1.5 | 2 | 0.36 | 1 | 13% | 1 |
| EDM M. Savoie | 1.4 | 0 | 0.38 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| VGK B. Saad | 1.4 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| VGK B. Howden | 1.4 | 0 | 0.45 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| EDM V. Podkolzin | 1.3 | 1 | 0.35 | 1 | 13% | 1 |
| VGK C. Sissons | 1.3 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| VGK C. Smith | 1.0 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| VGK B. McNabb | 1.0 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| EDM J. Dickinson | 1.0 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| VGK K. Kolesar | 1.0 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| VGK J. Lauzon | 1.0 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| EDM C. Murphy | 1.0 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| EDM T. Frederic | 0.9 | 2 | 0.19 | 1 | 11% | 1 |
| VGK N. Dowd | 0.9 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| VGK K. Korczak | 0.7 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| EDM C. Dach | 0.7 | 0 | 0.15 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| EDM T. Emberson | 0.6 | 1 | 0.19 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| EDM J. Samanski | 0.6 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.