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Game Recap
EDM4
Final/OTThu, Mar 26, 2026Every game that night
VGK3

EDM beat VGK 4-3 in overtime, with the chances close: 2.54 expected goals to 2.59. C. McDavid led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). C. Ingram stopped 26 of 29.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdOTT
EDM12014
VGK02103
  1. 1st 11:52EDMM. Savoie0.11 xG
  2. 2nd 4:09VGKM. Stone0.19 xG
  3. 2nd 7:27EDMC. McDavid0.12 xG
  4. 2nd 14:51VGKM. Stone0.19 xG
  5. 2nd 16:42EDMZ. Hyman0.16 xG
  6. 3rd 6:21VGKI. Barbashev0.03 xG
  7. OT 3:10EDME. Bouchard0.09 xG

Team Stats

EDMVGK
29Shots on goal29
2.54Expected goals2.59
61Shot attempts50
235v5 shots on goal22
0/2Power play0/3
15Hits21
14Blocked shots20
15Penalty minutes13
13Giveaways15
5Takeaways8

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

EDM 2.54 xGVGK 2.59 xGGoal

00.511.522.531st2nd3rdOTEDM goal, 11:52VGK goal, 4:09EDM goal, 7:27VGK goal, 14:51EDM goal, 16:42VGK goal, 6:21EDM goal, 3:10

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

EDM28 on goal, 4 scored
VGK28 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

EDM Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
C. McDavidC123200+1022:122:40
Z. HymanLW101220+1419:102:40
M. SavoieC101400+1018:400:44
V. PodkolzinRW011121-2018:332:33
R. Nugent-HopkinsC0004100019:482:40
J. DickinsonC0002000215:480:00
K. KapanenRW0001210015:350:00
J. RoslovicC0001100014:340:37
J. SamanskiC000011+1013:280:00
A. HenriqueC0002000010:200:37
M. JonesLW000010007:410:00
R. JarventieLW000000006:390:00
E. BouchardD112200+2223:312:40
M. EkholmD011201-1018:500:37
D. NurseD0001250225:200:00
C. MurphyD000113-1523:240:00
J. WalmanD000302+1017:480:37
T. EmbersonD0001200014:140:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
C. Ingram29263.89763:10Win
T. Jarry000–0:00

VGK Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
M. StoneRW202401+1023:405:17
I. BarbashevLW112351+2017:160:00
J. EichelC011402+1026:245:15
P. DorofeyevRW0111000019:103:04
M. MarnerRW0003010022:175:16
T. HertlC000430-1018:445:10
R. SmithRW000010-1013:420:00
C. SissonsC000001-1013:310:00
B. HowdenC000102-3212:070:02
C. SmithRW000010059:330:00
K. KolesarRW000040-108:470:00
N. DowdC000111+108:140:00
S. TheodoreD0111020223:050:12
R. AnderssonD0001020225:080:03
N. HanifinD000322-1022:570:06
B. McNabbD000322+1019:460:00
J. LauzonD0000220215:430:00
K. KorczakD000001-108:210:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
A. Hill29254.86262:20OT loss
A. Schmid000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

EDM

Line 1C. McDavid17:32V. Podkolzin16:00M. Savoie15:44
Line 2Z. Hyman15:26R. Nugent-Hopkins14:25J. Roslovic12:33
Line 3K. Kapanen13:41J. Samanski13:28J. Dickinson13:52
Line 4M. Jones7:41R. Jarventie6:39A. Henrique8:06
Pair 1D. Nurse21:34C. Murphy19:30
Pair 2M. Ekholm16:21E. Bouchard18:34
Pair 3J. Walman15:14T. Emberson13:05

VGK

Line 1J. Eichel17:52M. Stone16:46I. Barbashev17:16
Line 2M. Marner14:47P. Dorofeyev15:13T. Hertl12:57
Line 3N. Dowd8:07C. Smith8:56C. Sissons12:08
Line 4R. Smith12:15B. Howden10:29
Pair 1B. McNabb17:25S. Theodore20:30
Pair 2N. Hanifin21:00R. Andersson23:00
Pair 3J. Lauzon13:36K. Korczak8:21

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreEDM 2.9, VGK 3.2EDM 4, VGK 3
Total goals6.17
Shots on goalEDM 24.9, VGK 27.8EDM 29, VGK 29
Win chanceVGK 55%EDM won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
VGK J. Eichel3.241.17133%0
EDM C. McDavid3.021.44336%1
VGK P. Dorofeyev2.910.77135%0
EDM Z. Hyman2.520.78135%1
EDM E. Bouchard2.420.93216%1
VGK T. Hertl2.240.73027%0
VGK M. Marner2.131.16029%0
VGK M. Stone1.941.01228%2
EDM J. Roslovic1.610.47019%0
EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins1.640.71022%0
EDM M. Savoie1.640.46116%1
VGK R. Andersson1.610.3909%0
VGK I. Barbashev1.630.63222%1
EDM D. Nurse1.510.3007%0
EDM K. Kapanen1.510.40015%0
EDM V. Podkolzin1.510.40116%0
VGK S. Theodore1.510.60110%0
EDM M. Ekholm1.420.4619%0
EDM J. Walman1.430.3309%0
VGK N. Hanifin1.330.3607%0
VGK R. Smith1.300.41017%0
VGK C. Sissons1.200.27011%0
VGK B. Howden1.110.38018%0
VGK B. McNabb1.130.2405%0
EDM J. Dickinson1.020.29014%0
VGK C. Smith0.900.1909%0
EDM A. Henrique0.920.23011%0
VGK J. Lauzon0.900.1603%0
EDM M. Jones0.900.1808%0
EDM C. Murphy0.910.2105%0
VGK K. Kolesar0.900.27010%0
EDM R. Jarventie0.700.1507%0
VGK N. Dowd0.710.25011%0
VGK K. Korczak0.600.2003%0
EDM T. Emberson0.510.1603%0
EDM J. Samanski0.400.22010%0

Shots on goal: 24 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.