Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!
Game Recap
EDM4
FinalWed, Nov 19, 2025Every game that night
WSH7

WSH beat EDM 7-4, with the chances close: 4.15 expected goals to 3.51. EDM outshot WSH 30 to 22. J. Carlson led the way with 3 points (0 G, 3 A). T. Frederic had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 0.9. L. Thompson stopped 26 of 30.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
EDM2024
WSH3137
  1. 1st 2:17WSHA. Protas0.43 xG
  2. 1st 6:04WSHA. Ovechkin0.05 xG
  3. 1st 7:05EDMD. Nurse0.04 xG
  4. 1st 10:34WSHR. Leonard0.17 xG
  5. 1st 12:17EDMD. Nurse0.05 xG
  6. 2nd 11:49WSHR. Leonard0.15 xG
  7. 3rd 2:41EDMD. Tomasek0.15 xG
  8. 3rd 6:37WSHA. Beauvillier0.21 xG
  9. 3rd 7:47EDML. DraisaitlPP0.20 xG
  10. 3rd 18:59WSHT. WilsonEN0.39 xG
  11. 3rd 19:27WSHT. WilsonEN0.91 xG

Team Stats

EDMWSH
30Shots on goal22
3.51Expected goals4.15
74Shot attempts40
275v5 shots on goal20
1/3Power play0/1
11Hits16
6Blocked shots25
2Penalty minutes6
11Giveaways11
4Takeaways7

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

EDM 3.51 xGWSH 4.15 xGGoal

012341st2nd3rdWSH goal, 2:17WSH goal, 6:04EDM goal, 7:05WSH goal, 10:34EDM goal, 12:17WSH goal, 11:49EDM goal, 2:41WSH goal, 6:37EDM goal, 7:47WSH goal, 18:59WSH goal, 19:27

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

EDM30 on goal, 4 scored
WSH21 on goal, 7 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

EDM Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
C. McDavidC022210-2024:024:25
L. DraisaitlC112301-3023:264:20
Z. HymanLW011130-3020:404:26
A. MangiapaneLW011300-1013:020:00
D. TomasekRW101200009:460:30
M. JanmarkC011000-109:340:00
J. RoslovicC000010-3022:502:45
V. PodkolzinRW0000000016:420:00
A. HenriqueC0001120014:551:22
T. FredericC0006400014:400:00
M. SavoieC000100-1014:201:14
D. NurseD202402+1021:470:00
E. BouchardD0113000025:594:07
M. EkholmD000201-2222:180:34
J. WalmanD000100-2021:390:47
B. KulakD000000-3012:480:00
T. EmbersonD000110-109:520:00
A. RegulaD000000-101:330:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
S. Skinner20155.75058:07Loss
C. Pickard000–0:00

WSH Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
C. McMichaelLW033022+3016:520:45
T. WilsonRW202243+3222:441:00
R. LeonardRW202200+1012:121:00
A. ProtasLW101312+3020:430:18
D. StromeC011102+1017:151:00
A. OvechkinLW101200+2016:491:42
A. BeauvillierRW101111+1016:120:00
J. SourdifC011110+1215:330:18
B. DuhaimeLW000111-1011:560:00
E. FrankRW000101-109:140:42
H. LapierreC000020-108:420:00
S. MilanoLW000200007:340:00
J. CarlsonD033300+4220:310:55
J. ChychrunD022013+2020:020:57
M. RoyD011004+1022:360:18
R. SandinD000032-1020:071:05
M. FehérváryD000203+4019:240:00
T. van RiemsdykD000101-2016:400:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
L. Thompson30264.86760:00Win
C. Lindgren000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

EDM

Line 1J. Roslovic18:12C. McDavid17:44M. Savoie11:26
Line 2V. Podkolzin15:27L. Draisaitl17:13A. Mangiapane13:02
Line 3A. Henrique12:41T. Frederic14:40Z. Hyman15:16
Line 4M. Janmark8:27D. Tomasek9:16
Pair 1D. Nurse20:20E. Bouchard20:09
Pair 2M. Ekholm20:49J. Walman19:46
Pair 3B. Kulak11:27T. Emberson8:37

WSH

Line 1T. Wilson18:07A. Protas17:18J. Sourdif14:20
Line 2A. Ovechkin14:43D. Strome15:51A. Beauvillier14:02
Line 3C. McMichael12:28B. Duhaime10:45R. Leonard11:12
Line 4E. Frank8:32H. Lapierre8:42S. Milano7:34
Pair 1M. Roy19:01J. Chychrun19:05
Pair 2J. Carlson17:10M. Fehérváry15:53
Pair 3T. Riemsdyk14:10R. Sandin17:12

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreEDM 3.0, WSH 3.2EDM 4, WSH 7
Total goals6.211
Shots on goalEDM 27.9, WSH 27.3EDM 30, WSH 22
Win chanceWSH 53%WSH won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
EDM C. McDavid2.921.42235%0
WSH A. Ovechkin2.820.92137%1
EDM L. Draisaitl2.631.23241%1
EDM E. Bouchard2.630.79117%0
EDM Z. Hyman2.410.63131%0
WSH J. Chychrun2.300.60218%0
EDM J. Roslovic2.100.65023%0
WSH A. Beauvillier2.110.41117%1
WSH T. Wilson2.120.78230%2
WSH C. McMichael1.900.57323%0
EDM D. Nurse1.940.3229%2
WSH D. Strome1.810.94127%0
WSH A. Protas1.830.68122%1
EDM M. Ekholm1.820.3709%0
EDM J. Walman1.710.40011%0
WSH R. Leonard1.720.34213%2
WSH J. Carlson1.730.61312%0
EDM V. Podkolzin1.400.35013%0
EDM M. Savoie1.410.26012%0
EDM A. Henrique1.310.37017%0
WSH M. Roy1.200.3116%0
EDM D. Tomasek1.120.22110%1
EDM A. Mangiapane1.130.32115%0
EDM B. Kulak1.100.1804%0
WSH S. Milano1.020.37015%0
WSH J. Sourdif1.010.20113%0
WSH E. Frank0.910.30011%0
EDM T. Frederic0.960.22012%0
WSH M. Fehérváry0.920.2807%0
WSH R. Sandin0.900.3507%0
WSH B. Duhaime0.810.24011%0
EDM A. Regula0.800.0804%0
EDM T. Emberson0.810.1704%0
WSH H. Lapierre0.700.2608%0
WSH T. Riemsdyk0.610.1903%0
EDM M. Janmark0.600.1817%0

Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.