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Game Recap
FLA3
FinalTue, Nov 4, 2025Every game that night
ANA7

ANA beat FLA 7-3, and the chances backed it up: 3.70 expected goals to 2.40. ANA outshot FLA 32 to 21. C. Gauthier scored three for ANA. C. Gauthier had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 3.0. L. Dostal stopped 18 of 21.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
FLA1203
ANA2237
  1. 1st 3:09ANAC. Gauthier0.16 xG
  2. 1st 10:14FLAB. Marchand0.17 xG
  3. 1st 15:17ANAC. GauthierPP0.14 xG
  4. 2nd 5:21FLAE. Rodrigues0.16 xG
  5. 2nd 10:37FLAE. LuostarinenPP0.22 xG
  6. 2nd 15:36ANAC. GauthierPP0.12 xG
  7. 2nd 17:19ANAN. Nesterenko0.27 xG
  8. 3rd 11:43ANAJ. Trouba0.49 xG
  9. 3rd 13:21ANAC. Kreider0.15 xG
  10. 3rd 14:47ANAJ. Harkins0.13 xG

Team Stats

FLAANA
21Shots on goal32
2.40Expected goals3.70
48Shot attempts64
175v5 shots on goal21
1/5Power play2/7
27Hits13
17Blocked shots8
16Penalty minutes25
17Giveaways13
4Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

FLA 2.40 xGANA 3.70 xGGoal

00.511.522.533.541st2nd3rdANA goal, 3:09FLA goal, 10:14ANA goal, 15:17FLA goal, 5:21FLA goal, 10:37ANA goal, 15:36ANA goal, 17:19ANA goal, 11:43ANA goal, 13:21ANA goal, 14:47

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

FLA21 on goal, 3 scored
ANA32 on goal, 7 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

FLA Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
E. RodriguesC112130-1013:531:50
B. MarchandLW101201-1417:454:54
E. LuostarinenC101140-1417:023:16
S. BennettC0110200016:322:50
M. SamoskevichRW011210-1014:024:59
S. ReinhartC000230-3020:505:13
A. LundellC000113-2418:474:31
C. VerhaegheC000321-2217:582:44
C. SchwindtRW000000+1011:500:00
J. BoqvistC000111+1010:160:47
A. GreerLW000140009:520:00
N. GregorLW000110008:230:00
G. ForslingD011111-2020:040:04
J. PetryD0111020016:060:00
S. JonesD000202-1021:584:54
A. EkbladD000201-1020:502:53
N. MikkolaD000022-2217:590:00
D. SebrangoD0000230015:360:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
S. Bobrovsky32257.78158:44Loss
D. Tarasov000–0:00

ANA Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
C. GauthierLW3146000014:483:59
T. TerryRW0224000019:534:06
N. NesterenkoC112200+2016:350:42
L. CarlssonC02210001513:413:33
A. KillornLW0113200215:542:06
R. PoehlingC0112110015:321:15
C. KreiderLW1012100215:133:43
M. McTavishC011100+1414:241:01
J. HarkinsC101231+1010:070:50
B. SenneckeRW000100+2013:040:43
F. VatranoRW000110+1011:511:18
R. JohnstonLW000020+1010:190:51
J. TroubaD101211+2023:211:53
J. LaCombeD0111110023:074:07
D. HellesonD000210+1019:141:20
I. MooreD000002+1217:130:53
O. ZellwegerD000201+2017:040:48
P. MintyukovD000001+1016:261:07
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
L. Dostal21183.85759:45Win
P. Mrazek000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

FLA

Line 1B. Marchand11:12A. Lundell11:45E. Luostarinen10:38
Line 2S. Reinhart11:22E. Rodrigues10:18C. Verhaeghe12:03
Line 3S. Bennett9:01J. Boqvist8:05M. Samoskevich8:24
Line 4A. Greer8:16N. Gregor7:25C. Schwindt7:37
Pair 1J. Petry13:46D. Sebrango13:42
Pair 2A. Ekblad12:23G. Forsling13:10
Pair 3S. Jones11:33N. Mikkola13:15

ANA

Line 1C. Kreider11:04T. Terry11:58L. Carlsson8:36
Line 2M. McTavish10:07B. Sennecke8:34C. Gauthier8:16
Line 3R. Johnston9:28J. Harkins9:11F. Vatrano9:43
Line 4R. Poehling8:39N. Nesterenko11:44A. Killorn9:04
Pair 1J. Trouba13:26O. Zellweger14:47
Pair 2P. Mintyukov12:53I. Moore13:45
Pair 3D. Helleson11:34J. LaCombe11:06

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

  • Old teamA.J. Greer ANA Faces FLA, his team until Apr 20261 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreFLA 3.3, ANA 2.7FLA 3, ANA 7
Total goals5.910
Shots on goalFLA 31.5, ANA 26.6FLA 21, ANA 32
Win chanceFLA 59%ANA won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
FLA S. Reinhart3.221.08042%0
ANA C. Gauthier3.060.72426%3
FLA C. Verhaeghe2.930.78030%0
FLA S. Bennett2.800.67128%0
FLA B. Marchand2.820.91131%1
FLA A. Lundell2.510.77023%0
FLA M. Samoskevich2.320.52119%0
FLA E. Rodrigues2.310.54219%1
ANA T. Terry2.140.71225%0
ANA M. McTavish2.110.61122%0
FLA G. Forsling2.110.40111%0
FLA A. Ekblad2.120.53011%0
FLA S. Jones2.020.56013%0
ANA C. Kreider2.020.60131%1
ANA O. Zellweger1.920.2706%0
ANA J. LaCombe1.810.51111%0
ANA F. Vatrano1.810.38019%0
ANA L. Carlsson1.810.70223%0
ANA J. Trouba1.720.3016%1
ANA B. Sennecke1.710.49019%0
ANA A. Killorn1.630.48121%0
FLA E. Luostarinen1.510.48115%1
ANA N. Nesterenko1.320.32214%1
ANA D. Helleson1.320.3008%0
FLA N. Gregor1.310.18010%0
FLA N. Mikkola1.300.2106%0
FLA J. Boqvist1.010.28013%0
ANA I. Moore1.000.1303%0
ANA R. Poehling1.020.34113%0
ANA P. Mintyukov1.000.2704%0
FLA A. Greer1.010.23010%0
FLA J. Petry0.910.2514%0
FLA D. Sebrango0.900.1304%0
FLA C. Schwindt0.800.1706%0
ANA J. Harkins0.820.1216%1
ANA R. Johnston0.400.1305%0

Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.