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Game Recap
FLA2
Final/OTSun, Oct 4, 2026Every game that night
ANA3

ANA beat FLA 3-2 in overtime despite fewer good chances: 2.60 expected goals to 3.54. FLA outshot ANA 31 to 21. C. Gauthier led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). T. Hinds had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 0.6. L. Dostal stopped 29 of 31.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdOTT
FLA10102
ANA11013
  1. 1st 16:18ANAC. GauthierPP0.06 xG
  2. 1st 17:09FLAC. Verhaeghe0.33 xG
  3. 2nd 0:47ANAC. GauthierPP0.14 xG
  4. 3rd 18:10FLAB. Marchand0.13 xG
  5. OT 4:14ANAM. GranlundPP0.14 xG

Team Stats

FLAANA
31Shots on goal21
3.54Expected goals2.60
72Shot attempts41
185v5 shots on goal14
0/4Power play3/4
27Hits26
11Blocked shots20
6Penalty minutes8
22Giveaways14
5Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

FLA 3.54 xGANA 2.60 xGGoal

00.511.522.533.541st2nd3rdOTANA goal, 16:18FLA goal, 17:09ANA goal, 0:47FLA goal, 18:10ANA goal, 4:14

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

FLA31 on goal, 2 scored
ANA19 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

FLA Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
M. TkachukLW011110+1023:286:58
S. BennettC011420+1021:526:09
C. VerhaegheC101300+2219:181:50
B. MarchandLW101310+1013:100:53
L. EllerC011220+1211:320:15
S. ReinhartC0003100022:196:52
A. LundellC000110+1017:332:04
E. LuostarinenC000011+1016:121:02
B. TkachukLW0004400016:025:50
S. VilmanisLW0004200013:380:05
G. HathawayRW000160009:300:02
B. ImamaLW000041007:450:00
S. JonesD0004010028:356:50
G. ForslingD0000020220:250:01
N. MikkolaD0001020020:170:08
D. KulikovD0000110017:490:00
R. GudasD000013+1015:470:00
U. BalinskisD000000+2014:401:10
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
J. Markstrom21183.85763:43OT loss
A. Schmid000–0:00

ANA Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
C. GauthierLW2134110020:504:28
L. CarlssonC033102-1020:264:30
M. GranlundC101201-1022:314:32
B. SenneckeRW0113030021:444:28
A. KillornLW0000210016:320:34
T. WasheC000021-1016:240:00
A. GreerLW000230-2415:020:38
R. PoehlingC0001010014:550:38
N. NesterenkoC0000300010:240:00
S. ColangeloRW0000310010:240:00
J. CaulfieldRW000020-109:490:00
J. MalottLW000131007:560:00
J. LaCombeD011012-2028:412:58
T. LuneauD000102-2026:360:28
P. MintyukovD0000010019:500:36
N. WarrenD0002210215:570:00
T. HindsD0004110014:440:00
T. MitchellD0000310214:080:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
L. Dostal31292.93563:43Win
V. Husso000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

FLA

Line 1S. Bennett14:28M. Tkachuk15:29C. Verhaeghe15:23
Line 2A. Lundell13:59E. Luostarinen14:10S. Vilmanis13:30
Line 3B. Marchand11:44S. Reinhart13:00B. Tkachuk10:12
Line 4L. Eller7:57B. Imama7:45G. Hathaway6:55
Pair 1D. Kulikov16:38G. Forsling17:47
Pair 2S. Jones17:12N. Mikkola16:28
Pair 3R. Gudas15:10U. Balinskis12:48

ANA

Line 1C. Gauthier14:20L. Carlsson14:07A. Greer14:05
Line 2M. Granlund12:36B. Sennecke15:52A. Killorn12:01
Line 3R. Poehling10:57N. Nesterenko10:19S. Colangelo10:19
Line 4T. Washe11:54J. Caulfield9:46J. Malott7:53
Pair 1J. LaCombe20:52T. Luneau19:59
Pair 2N. Warren13:45T. Hinds14:26
Pair 3P. Mintyukov14:34T. Mitchell12:50

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

10 of 17 overs hit (59%).

PlayerLineOverUnderSOGResult
FLA B. Tkachuk3.5+135-1644Over
ANA C. Gauthier3.5+108-1304Over
ANA B. Sennecke2.5+148-1703Over
FLA C. Verhaeghe2.5+150-1853Over
ANA L. Carlsson2.5+120-1351Under
FLA M. Tkachuk2.5-105+1001Under
FLA S. Bennett2.5+110-1304Over
FLA S. Reinhart2.5+120-1443Over
ANA A. Killorn1.5-105-1100Under
FLA A. Lundell1.5-135+1251Under
FLA B. Marchand1.5-125-1103Over
ANA J. LaCombe1.5-115-1040Under
FLA L. Eller1.5+140-1902Over
ANA M. Granlund1.5-130+1152Over
ANA R. Poehling1.5-102-1301Under
FLA S. Jones1.5+114-1404Over
ANA T. Luneau1.5-110-1251Under

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

Storylines That Played Out

  • Old teamA.J. Greer ANA Faces FLA, his team until Apr 20262 SOG
  • Old teamRadko Gudas FLA Faces ANA, his team until Apr 20260 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreFLA 3.0, ANA 3.4FLA 2, ANA 3
Total goals6.45
Shots on goalFLA 25.7, ANA 30.8FLA 31, ANA 21
Win chanceANA 55%ANA won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
FLA B. Tkachuk3.640.90032%0
ANA C. Gauthier3.140.80330%2
FLA S. Bennett2.740.80130%0
FLA M. Tkachuk2.611.11132%0
FLA S. Reinhart2.530.97037%0
FLA C. Verhaeghe2.430.80130%1
ANA B. Sennecke2.430.67124%0
ANA L. Carlsson2.410.76325%0
FLA A. Lundell2.110.69022%0
ANA J. LaCombe2.100.77112%0
FLA B. Marchand1.930.70125%1
ANA A. Killorn1.900.54022%0
ANA M. Granlund1.820.74121%1
FLA S. Jones1.840.60013%0
ANA A. Greer1.520.42017%0
FLA G. Forsling1.500.38010%0
ANA T. Luneau1.310.3308%0
FLA E. Luostarinen1.300.45014%0
ANA P. Mintyukov1.200.2907%0
ANA N. Nesterenko1.200.28011%0
FLA N. Mikkola1.110.2306%0
ANA R. Poehling1.110.37013%0
FLA L. Eller1.020.24110%0
FLA S. Vilmanis0.940.28013%0
ANA T. Washe0.900.2009%0
FLA D. Kulikov0.800.1905%0
ANA J. Malott0.810.1406%0
FLA G. Hathaway0.710.1709%0
FLA R. Gudas0.700.1503%0
ANA T. Mitchell0.700.1706%0
ANA T. Hinds0.640.1002%0
FLA B. Imama0.500.0907%0

Shots on goal: 18 of 32 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.