BUF beat FLA 5-2, and the chances backed it up: 3.81 expected goals to 1.59. A. Tuch led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). M. Samuelsson had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.0. D. Levi stopped 23 of 25.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| BUF | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
- 1st 9:01FLAN. Schmidt0.14 xG
- 1st 16:46BUFJ. Greenway0.43 xG
- 1st 17:27BUFT. Thompson0.04 xG
- 2nd 1:34BUFH. Jokiharju0.03 xG
- 2nd 16:22BUFM. Samuelsson0.07 xG
- 2nd 18:42FLAS. BennettPP0.03 xG
- 3rd 18:48BUFA. TuchEN0.17 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
FLA 1.59 xGBUF 3.81 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
FLA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E. Rodrigues | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 21:01 | 1:51 |
| S. Reinhart | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 20:04 | 1:51 |
| S. Bennett | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 19:02 | 1:51 |
| A. Greer | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 16:20 | 0:02 |
| J. Boqvist | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:46 | 0:02 |
| C. Verhaeghe | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 21:11 | 1:51 |
| A. Lundell | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 20:48 | 0:34 |
| E. Luostarinen | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 18:01 | 0:34 |
| M. Samoskevich | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:19 | 0:34 |
| J. Gadjovich | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7:55 | 0:02 |
| P. Giles | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7:34 | 0:00 |
| N. Schmidt | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:34 | 0:00 |
| A. Ekblad | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 23:05 | 0:34 |
| G. Forsling | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 4 | 21:52 | 0:02 |
| N. Mikkola | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 0 | 18:54 | 0:02 |
| U. Balinskis | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 15:45 | 0:34 |
| D. Kulikov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 2 | 14:10 | 0:00 |
| A. Boqvist | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 10:30 | 1:51 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Knight | 26 | 22 | 4 | .846 | 58:09 | Loss |
| S. Bobrovsky | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
BUF Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Tuch | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 20:35 | 2:28 |
| T. Thompson | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 20:56 | 3:31 |
| J. Zucker | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 17:58 | 3:34 |
| R. McLeod | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 17:50 | 0:23 |
| J. Greenway | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | +3 | 4 | 17:05 | 0:03 |
| J. Quinn | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:36 | 2:32 |
| P. Krebs | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:20 | 0:00 |
| D. Cozens | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 21:54 | 3:27 |
| J.Kulich | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 17:39 | 1:36 |
| Z. Benson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:03 | 1:29 |
| B. Malenstyn | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1:52 | 0:00 |
| R. Dahlin | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | +3 | 0 | 23:45 | 4:23 |
| C. Clifton | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 17:26 | 0:03 |
| M. Samuelsson | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:24 | 0:00 |
| H. Jokiharju | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 14:35 | 0:54 |
| O. Power | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 23:14 | 3:12 |
| B. Byram | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:32 | 2:25 |
| D. Gilbert | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4:49 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Levi | 25 | 23 | 2 | .920 | 60:00 | Win |
| U. Luukkonen | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | FLA 3.2, BUF 2.8 | FLA 2, BUF 5 |
| Total goals | 6.0 | 7 |
| Shots on goal | FLA 30.6, BUF 28.5 | FLA 25, BUF 27 |
| Win chance | FLA 55% | BUF won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF T. Thompson | 3.3 | 3 | 0.78 | 1 | 34% | 1 |
| FLA C. Verhaeghe | 3.3 | 1 | 0.84 | 0 | 34% | 0 |
| FLA S. Reinhart | 3.0 | 3 | 0.90 | 1 | 38% | 0 |
| BUF A. Tuch | 2.7 | 3 | 0.81 | 2 | 29% | 1 |
| FLA S. Bennett | 2.7 | 3 | 0.63 | 1 | 25% | 1 |
| BUF D. Cozens | 2.7 | 2 | 0.59 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| BUF R. Dahlin | 2.5 | 0 | 0.61 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| FLA E. Rodrigues | 2.2 | 5 | 0.50 | 1 | 18% | 0 |
| BUF J. Zucker | 2.1 | 0 | 0.41 | 1 | 19% | 0 |
| FLA G. Forsling | 2.1 | 1 | 0.49 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| FLA A. Lundell | 2.0 | 1 | 0.50 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| BUF J. Quinn | 1.9 | 3 | 0.51 | 1 | 20% | 0 |
| FLA A. Ekblad | 1.9 | 1 | 0.43 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| BUF J. Greenway | 1.8 | 2 | 0.35 | 1 | 14% | 1 |
| BUF O. Power | 1.6 | 0 | 0.41 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| FLA M. Samoskevich | 1.5 | 1 | 0.17 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| BUF Z. Benson | 1.5 | 1 | 0.40 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| FLA E. Luostarinen | 1.4 | 1 | 0.36 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| BUF B. Byram | 1.3 | 1 | 0.42 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| FLA N. Schmidt | 1.2 | 1 | 0.24 | 1 | 6% | 1 |
| BUF H. Jokiharju | 1.2 | 1 | 0.23 | 1 | 4% | 1 |
| BUF R. McLeod | 1.2 | 1 | 0.28 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| FLA A. Greer | 1.1 | 2 | 0.22 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| BUF M. Samuelsson | 1.0 | 4 | 0.16 | 1 | 2% | 1 |
| FLA A. Boqvist | 1.0 | 2 | 0.27 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| BUF C. Clifton | 1.0 | 3 | 0.20 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| FLA N. Mikkola | 1.0 | 1 | 0.17 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| BUF B. Malenstyn | 1.0 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| FLA J. Boqvist | 0.9 | 0 | 0.27 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| FLA D. Kulikov | 0.9 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| FLA U. Balinskis | 0.9 | 1 | 0.17 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| BUF P. Krebs | 0.9 | 1 | 0.23 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| FLA J. Gadjovich | 0.8 | 1 | 0.13 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| BUF D. Gilbert | 0.5 | 0 | 0.14 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 24 of 34 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.