BUF beat FLA 3-0 despite fewer good chances: 2.57 expected goals to 3.74. J. Doan led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). M. Samoskevich had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 1.8. A. Lyon stopped 32 of 32.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| BUF | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
FLA 3.74 xGBUF 2.57 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
FLA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Reinhart | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 23:33 | 8:46 |
| C. Verhaeghe | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:54 | 6:39 |
| S. Bennett | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:08 | 4:57 |
| A. Lundell | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 18:30 | 7:52 |
| M. Samoskevich | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:46 | 7:49 |
| B. Marchand | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 4 | 15:37 | 4:06 |
| E. Rodrigues | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 15:33 | 2:59 |
| E. Luostarinen | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 12:30 | 0:10 |
| L. Kunin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10:47 | 0:00 |
| J. Boqvist | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10:44 | 0:07 |
| J. Gadjovich | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:14 | 0:00 |
| A. Greer | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:12 | 0:02 |
| S. Jones | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 23:48 | 6:41 |
| A. Ekblad | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 0 | 23:07 | 4:05 |
| G. Forsling | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 21:06 | 0:16 |
| U. Balinskis | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 18:53 | 0:01 |
| J. Petry | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:16 | 4:50 |
| N. Mikkola | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6:53 | 0:10 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Bobrovsky | 31 | 28 | 3 | .903 | 59:51 | Loss |
| D. Tarasov | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
BUF Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Doan | RW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13:55 | 2:26 |
| A. Tuch | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 20:22 | 0:00 |
| Z. Benson | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17:25 | 2:32 |
| T. Thompson | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15:34 | 2:00 |
| J. Zucker | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14:39 | 2:32 |
| P. Krebs | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 14:25 | 0:00 |
| R. McLeod | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 18:15 | 0:00 |
| J. Quinn | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:20 | 0:32 |
| J.Kulich | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:37 | 0:00 |
| T. Kozak | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9:47 | 0:00 |
| B. Malenstyn | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9:23 | 0:00 |
| M. Geertsen | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 2:06 | 0:00 |
| O. Power | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 23:44 | 0:00 |
| R. Dahlin | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 22:36 | 2:32 |
| C. Timmins | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 6 | +1 | 2 | 24:30 | 0:06 |
| B. Byram | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 24:17 | 0:00 |
| M. Samuelsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 22:01 | 0:00 |
| J. Bryson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1:16 | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
FLA
BUF
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | FLA 3.4, BUF 3.0 | FLA 0, BUF 3 |
| Total goals | 6.3 | 3 |
| Shots on goal | FLA 29.2, BUF 26.8 | FLA 32, BUF 31 |
| Win chance | FLA 56% | BUF won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF T. Thompson | 3.0 | 2 | 0.86 | 1 | 37% | 0 |
| FLA S. Bennett | 2.9 | 1 | 0.76 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| BUF R. Dahlin | 2.8 | 4 | 0.76 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| FLA S. Reinhart | 2.8 | 2 | 1.03 | 0 | 39% | 0 |
| FLA C. Verhaeghe | 2.5 | 4 | 0.74 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| FLA B. Marchand | 2.4 | 4 | 0.85 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| BUF A. Tuch | 2.2 | 2 | 0.74 | 1 | 29% | 0 |
| FLA A. Lundell | 2.0 | 0 | 0.63 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| BUF J.Kulich | 2.0 | 3 | 0.41 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| FLA A. Ekblad | 2.0 | 3 | 0.61 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| BUF J. Zucker | 1.9 | 1 | 0.56 | 1 | 22% | 0 |
| FLA E. Rodrigues | 1.9 | 2 | 0.52 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| FLA G. Forsling | 1.9 | 1 | 0.42 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| FLA S. Jones | 1.8 | 4 | 0.54 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| FLA M. Samoskevich | 1.8 | 7 | 0.42 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| BUF J. Doan | 1.8 | 6 | 0.43 | 2 | 16% | 2 |
| BUF O. Power | 1.6 | 2 | 0.38 | 1 | 5% | 1 |
| BUF Z. Benson | 1.6 | 2 | 0.42 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| BUF J. Quinn | 1.5 | 2 | 0.47 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| BUF R. McLeod | 1.3 | 0 | 0.55 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| BUF B. Byram | 1.3 | 1 | 0.45 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| FLA E. Luostarinen | 1.2 | 1 | 0.42 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| FLA N. Mikkola | 1.2 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| BUF C. Timmins | 1.2 | 3 | 0.29 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| FLA L. Kunin | 1.1 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| BUF P. Krebs | 0.9 | 2 | 0.29 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| BUF M. Samuelsson | 0.9 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| FLA U. Balinskis | 0.9 | 1 | 0.18 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| FLA J. Boqvist | 0.9 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| FLA A. Greer | 0.9 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| FLA J. Petry | 0.9 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| BUF B. Malenstyn | 0.8 | 0 | 0.14 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| FLA J. Gadjovich | 0.8 | 0 | 0.14 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| BUF T. Kozak | 0.6 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| BUF J. Bryson | 0.4 | 0 | 0.13 | 0 | 1% | 0 |
| BUF M. Geertsen | 0.4 | 0 | 0.04 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.