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Game Recap
FLA4
CBJ3
FLA beat CBJ 4-3 despite fewer good chances: 1.88 expected goals to 3.16. CBJ outshot FLA 38 to 22. S. Reinhart led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). Z. Werenski had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 3.1. S. Knight stopped 35 of 38.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 0 | 3 | 1 | 4 |
| CBJ | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
- 2nd 0:41CBJC. SillingerSH0.22 xG
- 2nd 10:25FLAA. Lundell0.05 xG
- 2nd 11:22CBJS. Monahan0.36 xG
- 2nd 11:59FLAD. Kulikov0.01 xG
- 2nd 19:58FLAS. Reinhart0.16 xG
- 3rd 15:12FLAE. Luostarinen0.26 xG
- 3rd 17:21CBJJ. van Riemsdyk0.18 xG
Team Stats
FLACBJ
22Shots on goal38
1.88Expected goals3.16
46Shot attempts72
185v5 shots on goal27
0/3Power play0/2
25Hits17
13Blocked shots13
4Penalty minutes6
23Giveaways10
8Takeaways7
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
FLA 1.88 xGCBJ 3.16 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
FLA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Reinhart | C | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 0 | 21:15 | 4:12 |
| A. Lundell | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 18:13 | 1:42 |
| S. Bennett | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 20:06 | 4:07 |
| C. Verhaeghe | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 19:14 | 4:18 |
| E. Luostarinen | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 18:22 | 1:52 |
| E. Rodrigues | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 17:14 | 4:18 |
| J. Boqvist | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:04 | 0:00 |
| M. Samoskevich | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:58 | 1:48 |
| A. Greer | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:15 | 0:00 |
| J. Gadjovich | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:03 | 0:00 |
| P. Giles | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6:44 | 0:00 |
| N. Mikkola | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 | +1 | 0 | 21:31 | 0:00 |
| D. Kulikov | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +3 | 0 | 19:20 | 0:00 |
| N. Schmidt | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 14:59 | 0:00 |
| G. Forsling | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 21:21 | 0:23 |
| A. Ekblad | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 20:25 | 1:43 |
| A. Boqvist | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:36 | 4:22 |
| U. Balinskis | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8:20 | 1:15 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Knight | 38 | 35 | 3 | .921 | 60:00 | Win |
| S. Bobrovsky | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
CBJ Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Johnson | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 21:03 | 2:15 |
| C. Sillinger | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 20:38 | 2:21 |
| S. Monahan | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:39 | 2:13 |
| K. Marchenko | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 18:21 | 1:39 |
| E. Chinakhov | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 16:24 | 2:20 |
| J. van Riemsdyk | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:14 | 1:37 |
| K. Labanc | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 12:54 | 1:46 |
| A. Fantilli | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 18:11 | 1:47 |
| M. Pyyhtia | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 0 | 13:50 | 0:00 |
| Z. Aston-Reese | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 11:20 | 0:00 |
| M. Olivier | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 10:29 | 0:00 |
| S. Kuraly | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9:19 | 0:00 |
| D. Severson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 19:30 | 1:03 |
| Z. Werenski | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 28:36 | 2:13 |
| I. Provorov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 24:40 | 0:46 |
| J. Christiansen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 14:56 | 0:00 |
| E. Gudbranson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:25 | 0:00 |
| J. Harris | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 12:44 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E. Merzlikins | 22 | 18 | 4 | .818 | 55:34 | Loss |
| D. Tarasov | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | FLA 3.5, CBJ 2.9 | FLA 4, CBJ 3 |
| Total goals | 6.4 | 7 |
| Shots on goal | FLA 34.4, CBJ 28.4 | FLA 22, CBJ 38 |
| Win chance | FLA 60% | FLA won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA C. Verhaeghe | 3.6 | 2 | 0.93 | 1 | 37% | 0 |
| CBJ Z. Werenski | 3.1 | 7 | 0.74 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| FLA S. Reinhart | 3.1 | 2 | 0.96 | 3 | 40% | 1 |
| FLA S. Bennett | 3.0 | 3 | 0.71 | 1 | 28% | 0 |
| FLA E. Rodrigues | 2.7 | 1 | 0.59 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| CBJ K. Marchenko | 2.4 | 1 | 0.50 | 1 | 26% | 0 |
| FLA G. Forsling | 2.3 | 0 | 0.52 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| CBJ C. Sillinger | 2.3 | 1 | 0.41 | 1 | 17% | 1 |
| FLA A. Lundell | 2.3 | 2 | 0.60 | 2 | 20% | 1 |
| CBJ S. Monahan | 2.2 | 5 | 0.64 | 1 | 23% | 1 |
| FLA A. Ekblad | 2.2 | 0 | 0.47 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| CBJ A. Fantilli | 2.1 | 4 | 0.48 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| CBJ E. Chinakhov | 2.0 | 4 | 0.47 | 1 | 19% | 0 |
| CBJ K. Johnson | 1.7 | 2 | 0.46 | 1 | 18% | 0 |
| FLA E. Luostarinen | 1.6 | 1 | 0.42 | 1 | 17% | 1 |
| FLA M. Samoskevich | 1.5 | 1 | 0.17 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| CBJ J. Riemsdyk | 1.5 | 3 | 0.36 | 1 | 14% | 1 |
| CBJ D. Severson | 1.5 | 1 | 0.45 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| CBJ M. Pyyhtia | 1.4 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| CBJ I. Provorov | 1.4 | 1 | 0.34 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| FLA A. Greer | 1.4 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| CBJ S. Kuraly | 1.3 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| FLA N. Schmidt | 1.3 | 0 | 0.25 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| CBJ E. Gudbranson | 1.3 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| CBJ K. Labanc | 1.3 | 2 | 0.26 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| CBJ M. Olivier | 1.1 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| FLA N. Mikkola | 1.1 | 2 | 0.18 | 2 | 4% | 0 |
| FLA A. Boqvist | 1.1 | 2 | 0.28 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| FLA J. Boqvist | 1.1 | 1 | 0.33 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| FLA D. Kulikov | 1.0 | 1 | 0.23 | 1 | 4% | 1 |
| FLA U. Balinskis | 1.0 | 2 | 0.16 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| CBJ J. Harris | 1.0 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| CBJ J. Christiansen | 0.9 | 1 | 0.18 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| FLA J. Gadjovich | 0.8 | 0 | 0.14 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| CBJ Z. Aston-Reese | 0.6 | 3 | 0.10 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 18 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.