Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!
Game Recap
FLA6
DAL4
FLA beat DAL 6-4 despite fewer good chances: 2.16 expected goals to 3.46. DAL outshot FLA 36 to 28. A. Barkov led the way with 4 points (1 G, 3 A). S. Steel had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.0. S. Bobrovsky stopped 32 of 36.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 |
| DAL | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
- 1st 0:28FLAE. Rodrigues0.06 xG
- 1st 7:11FLAA. Barkov0.08 xG
- 1st 10:45DALT. Seguin0.08 xG
- 1st 15:52FLAA. LundellPP0.08 xG
- 2nd 1:32DALE. Lindell0.32 xG
- 2nd 6:07FLAS. ReinhartSH0.07 xG
- 3rd 2:31FLAM. Samoskevich0.01 xG
- 3rd 10:08FLAS. Reinhart0.24 xG
- 3rd 15:38DALM. Bourque0.29 xG
- 3rd 19:26DALJ. Benn0.30 xG
Team Stats
FLADAL
28Shots on goal36
2.16Expected goals3.46
56Shot attempts62
235v5 shots on goal27
1/2Power play0/3
17Hits21
12Blocked shots18
8Penalty minutes6
13Giveaways19
8Takeaways7
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
FLA 2.16 xGDAL 3.46 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
FLA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Barkov | C | 1 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +3 | 0 | 17:31 | 2:34 |
| S. Reinhart | C | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 1 | +3 | 0 | 17:36 | 2:32 |
| E. Rodrigues | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 13:33 | 1:25 |
| A. Lundell | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:04 | 1:21 |
| S. Bennett | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 16:37 | 1:26 |
| M. Samoskevich | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 8:37 | 0:00 |
| A. Greer | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 8:02 | 0:00 |
| C. Verhaeghe | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 18:22 | 2:37 |
| M. Tkachuk | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 2 | 17:50 | 2:37 |
| E. Luostarinen | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 15:17 | 0:00 |
| J. Boqvist | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 12:34 | 0:00 |
| T. Nosek | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 11:00 | 0:00 |
| A. Ekblad | D | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 22:45 | 1:21 |
| G. Forsling | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | +2 | 0 | 22:03 | 0:00 |
| N. Mikkola | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 4 | 20:50 | 0:00 |
| D. Kulikov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:56 | 0:00 |
| U. Balinskis | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 16:51 | 2:46 |
| N. Schmidt | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 15:32 | 1:11 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Bobrovsky | 36 | 32 | 4 | .889 | 60:00 | Win |
| S. Knight | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
DAL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Duchene | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 17:46 | 2:41 |
| J. Robertson | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:48 | 3:03 |
| T. Seguin | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:46 | 2:27 |
| L. Stankoven | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:03 | 2:37 |
| J. Benn | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 2 | 14:44 | 2:18 |
| S. Steel | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 10:36 | 0:00 |
| M. Bourque | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 9:43 | 0:27 |
| W. Johnston | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:33 | 3:07 |
| M. Marchment | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 18:03 | 2:55 |
| R. Hintz | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 15:15 | 2:22 |
| E. Dadonov | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 13:05 | 0:49 |
| C. Blackwell | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:19 | 0:00 |
| E. Lindell | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21:46 | 0:08 |
| I. Lyubushkin | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 18:33 | 0:00 |
| M. Heiskanen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 23:12 | 3:54 |
| M. Dumba | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 18:31 | 1:14 |
| T. Harley | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 18:22 | 1:58 |
| N. Lundkvist | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 14:57 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Oettinger | 28 | 22 | 6 | .786 | 60:00 | Loss |
| C. DeSmith | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | FLA 2.8, DAL 3.0 | FLA 6, DAL 4 |
| Total goals | 5.9 | 10 |
| Shots on goal | FLA 28.3, DAL 28.2 | FLA 28, DAL 36 |
| Win chance | DAL 54% | FLA won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA C. Verhaeghe | 3.0 | 4 | 0.75 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| FLA M. Tkachuk | 2.8 | 0 | 0.86 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| FLA S. Reinhart | 2.5 | 4 | 0.81 | 3 | 34% | 2 |
| DAL W. Johnston | 2.5 | 2 | 0.68 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| DAL J. Robertson | 2.4 | 5 | 0.87 | 1 | 32% | 0 |
| FLA S. Bennett | 2.4 | 0 | 0.59 | 1 | 24% | 0 |
| DAL M. Heiskanen | 2.3 | 2 | 0.67 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| DAL T. Seguin | 2.2 | 3 | 0.63 | 1 | 25% | 1 |
| FLA A. Barkov | 2.2 | 2 | 0.84 | 4 | 25% | 1 |
| FLA E. Rodrigues | 2.0 | 2 | 0.43 | 2 | 16% | 1 |
| FLA A. Lundell | 1.9 | 2 | 0.55 | 1 | 18% | 1 |
| DAL R. Hintz | 1.9 | 3 | 0.75 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| DAL L. Stankoven | 1.9 | 0 | 0.52 | 1 | 16% | 0 |
| FLA G. Forsling | 1.8 | 1 | 0.39 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| DAL M. Marchment | 1.8 | 1 | 0.56 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| DAL T. Harley | 1.8 | 1 | 0.46 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| DAL J. Benn | 1.7 | 4 | 0.65 | 1 | 22% | 1 |
| DAL M. Duchene | 1.7 | 3 | 0.66 | 2 | 26% | 0 |
| FLA A. Ekblad | 1.6 | 3 | 0.33 | 3 | 10% | 0 |
| DAL E. Dadonov | 1.4 | 1 | 0.41 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| DAL E. Lindell | 1.3 | 3 | 0.26 | 2 | 6% | 1 |
| FLA E. Luostarinen | 1.3 | 2 | 0.36 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| FLA T. Nosek | 1.3 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| FLA A. Greer | 1.3 | 0 | 0.21 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| DAL C. Blackwell | 1.2 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| DAL N. Lundkvist | 1.1 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| FLA J. Boqvist | 1.1 | 1 | 0.32 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| FLA N. Mikkola | 1.1 | 2 | 0.17 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| DAL M. Dumba | 1.0 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| FLA M. Samoskevich | 1.0 | 1 | 0.15 | 1 | 8% | 1 |
| FLA D. Kulikov | 1.0 | 3 | 0.22 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| DAL S. Steel | 1.0 | 4 | 0.28 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| FLA N. Schmidt | 0.9 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| DAL M. Bourque | 0.9 | 2 | 0.22 | 1 | 10% | 1 |
| FLA U. Balinskis | 0.7 | 0 | 0.09 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| DAL I. Lyubushkin | 0.6 | 1 | 0.16 | 2 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.