Game Recap: FLA 2, NJD 1 (SO), January 14, 2025

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Game Recap

FLA2

Final/SOTue, Jan 14, 2025Every game that night

NJD1

FLA beat NJD 2-1 in a shootout despite fewer good chances: 2.12 expected goals to 2.81. S. Knight stopped 26 of 27.

	1st	2nd	3rd	SO	T
FLA	0	0	1	1	2
NJD	0	0	1	0	1

FLANJD

28Shots on goal27

2.12Expected goals2.81

66Shot attempts55

265v5 shots on goal20

0/1Power play0/2

42Hits30

14Blocked shots19

6Penalty minutes4

14Giveaways8

2Takeaways7

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

FLA 2.12 xGNJD 2.81 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

FLA28 on goal, 1 scored

NJD27 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. Verhaeghe	C	0	1	1	1	1	0	+1	0	16:20	0:49
J. Boqvist	C	1	0	1	2	3	1	+1	0	14:23	0:00
A. Barkov	C	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	23:24	0:48
S. Reinhart	C	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	21:53	0:49
M. Tkachuk	LW	0	0	0	1	5	0	0	4	19:29	1:09
S. Bennett	C	0	0	0	3	2	1	0	0	18:01	1:11
M. Samoskevich	RW	0	0	0	1	8	0	0	2	16:07	1:11
A. Lundell	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	+1	0	15:57	0:33
E. Luostarinen	C	0	0	0	0	4	1	0	0	14:19	0:00
E. Rodrigues	C	0	0	0	2	3	0	-1	0	10:07	1:11
A. Greer	LW	0	0	0	3	1	1	-1	0	9:20	0:00
T. Nosek	LW	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	8:05	0:00
N. Schmidt	D	0	1	1	0	2	1	+1	0	20:54	0:49
G. Forsling	D	0	0	0	4	1	2	-1	0	26:34	0:18
N. Mikkola	D	0	0	0	0	2	4	+1	0	23:30	0:00
D. Kulikov	D	0	0	0	2	4	0	-1	0	20:15	0:00
U. Balinskis	D	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	18:17	1:12
T. Bjornfot	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	14:05	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Knight	27	26	1	.963	65:00	Win
S. Bobrovsky	0	0	0	–	0:00

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. Hischier	C	1	0	1	5	0	0	+1	0	22:29	2:14
T. Meier	RW	0	1	1	2	4	3	+1	0	22:04	1:45
N. Bastian	RW	0	1	1	0	2	0	+1	0	9:01	0:37
J. Hughes	C	0	0	0	6	0	1	-1	0	24:52	2:46
J. Bratt	LW	0	0	0	1	4	0	-1	0	23:07	2:17
D. Mercer	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	17:54	2:16
O. Palat	LW	0	0	0	2	2	2	-1	0	17:10	1:04
P. Cotter	LW	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	0	14:54	1:44
T. Tatar	LW	0	0	0	2	2	1	0	0	12:59	0:00
J. Dowling	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	10:50	0:25
C. Lazar	C	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	9:00	0:12
K. MacDermid	LW	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	6:36	0:00
B. Pesce	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	23:12	0:39
L. Hughes	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	22:56	1:45
D. Hamilton	D	0	0	0	1	3	5	0	0	20:08	2:16
J. Kovacevic	D	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	2	20:03	0:00
J. Siegenthaler	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	2	19:49	0:00
B. Dillon	D	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	15:56	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Markstrom	28	27	1	.964	65:00	OT loss
J. Allen	0	0	0	–	0:00

Old teamEvan Rodrigues NJD First game against FLA since he left (his team until Mar 2026)2 SOG
Old teamJacob Markstrom FLA First game back in Newark, his team until Apr 202627 saves on 28
Old teamJesper Boqvist NJD First game against FLA since he left (his team until Apr 2026)1 G, 2 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
NJD J. Hughes	3.7	6	1.17	0	37%	0
NJD T. Meier	2.8	2	0.71	1	32%	0
FLA M. Tkachuk	2.6	1	0.88	0	28%	0
NJD D. Hamilton	2.6	1	0.61	0	13%	0
NJD N. Hischier	2.5	5	0.88	1	31%	1
FLA S. Reinhart	2.5	2	0.88	0	38%	0
FLA C. Verhaeghe	2.5	1	0.67	1	29%	0
NJD J. Bratt	2.4	1	1.02	0	30%	0
FLA S. Bennett	2.3	3	0.54	0	23%	0
FLA G. Forsling	2.2	4	0.42	0	11%	0
FLA A. Barkov	2.2	2	0.90	0	27%	0
FLA A. Lundell	1.7	1	0.48	0	16%	0
NJD L. Hughes	1.7	0	0.55	0	9%	0
FLA E. Rodrigues	1.6	2	0.39	0	16%	0
NJD B. Pesce	1.5	0	0.27	0	6%	0
NJD D. Mercer	1.4	1	0.44	0	21%	0
NJD O. Palat	1.3	2	0.46	0	18%	0
NJD P. Cotter	1.2	2	0.34	0	16%	0
FLA U. Balinskis	1.2	2	0.24	0	5%	0
FLA N. Mikkola	1.1	0	0.20	0	5%	0
FLA E. Luostarinen	1.1	0	0.33	0	14%	0
FLA D. Kulikov	1.0	2	0.22	0	5%	0
NJD J. Siegenthaler	1.0	1	0.21	0	4%	0
NJD J. Kovacevic	1.0	2	0.27	0	6%	0
FLA J. Boqvist	1.0	2	0.32	1	14%	1
FLA N. Schmidt	1.0	0	0.24	1	6%	0
FLA M. Samoskevich	0.9	1	0.19	0	10%	0
NJD N. Bastian	0.9	0	0.21	1	10%	0
NJD T. Tatar	0.8	2	0.25	0	11%	0
NJD J. Dowling	0.8	0	0.19	0	12%	0
FLA A. Greer	0.8	3	0.15	0	7%	0
NJD B. Dillon	0.7	0	0.25	0	5%	0
FLA T. Nosek	0.7	1	0.14	0	5%	0
NJD C. Lazar	0.7	2	0.18	0	7%	0
FLA T. Bjornfot	0.6	1	0.09	0	1%	0
NJD K. MacDermid	0.3	0	0.06	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.