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Game Recap
FLA1
OTT3
OTT beat FLA 3-1, with the chances close: 2.66 expected goals to 2.29. T. Stützle led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). L. Ullmark stopped 31 of 32.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| OTT | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
- 1st 5:52OTTT. StützlePP0.08 xG
- 1st 10:42OTTS. Pinto0.03 xG
- 2nd 15:48FLAG. Forsling0.03 xG
- 3rd 18:50OTTT. StützleEN0.78 xG
Team Stats
FLAOTT
32Shots on goal31
2.29Expected goals2.66
85Shot attempts46
245v5 shots on goal23
0/2Power play1/3
22Hits30
9Blocked shots30
6Penalty minutes4
13Giveaways14
2Takeaways2
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
FLA 2.29 xGOTT 2.66 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
FLA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Bennett | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:56 | 1:46 |
| M. Tkachuk | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:27 | 2:39 |
| C. Verhaeghe | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 20:15 | 2:13 |
| S. Reinhart | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 20:04 | 2:11 |
| A. Barkov | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 19:09 | 2:12 |
| A. Lundell | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:31 | 1:19 |
| E. Rodrigues | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 15:27 | 1:48 |
| E. Luostarinen | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 13:45 | 0:01 |
| M. Samoskevich | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:22 | 0:00 |
| J. Boqvist | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:02 | 0:04 |
| A. Greer | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:25 | 0:00 |
| J. Gadjovich | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:13 | 0:00 |
| G. Forsling | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 23:06 | 0:00 |
| A. Ekblad | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 22:09 | 1:45 |
| N. Mikkola | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 4 | 18:50 | 0:02 |
| D. Kulikov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:47 | 0:00 |
| U. Balinskis | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:20 | 2:31 |
| N. Schmidt | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:38 | 1:29 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Bobrovsky | 30 | 28 | 2 | .933 | 58:34 | Loss |
| S. Knight | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
OTT Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Stützle | C | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 19:57 | 3:20 |
| J. Norris | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:08 | 3:18 |
| B. Tkachuk | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 17:47 | 3:27 |
| S. Pinto | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:59 | 0:57 |
| C. Giroux | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:38 | 1:43 |
| D. Batherson | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15:16 | 3:18 |
| R. Greig | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 15:07 | 1:34 |
| M. Amadio | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:58 | 0:00 |
| D. Perron | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:03 | 1:33 |
| N. Gregor | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 12:51 | 0:00 |
| N. Cousins | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:09 | 0:00 |
| A. Gaudette | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 9:23 | 0:44 |
| J. Sanderson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 24:48 | 3:19 |
| A. Zub | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 21:14 | 0:04 |
| T. Chabot | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 18:15 | 1:43 |
| T. Kleven | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 16:54 | 0:00 |
| N. Jensen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 16:49 | 0:00 |
| T. Hamonic | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 16:44 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Ullmark | 32 | 31 | 1 | .969 | 60:00 | Win |
| A. Forsberg | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | FLA 3.2, OTT 2.8 | FLA 1, OTT 3 |
| Total goals | 6.0 | 4 |
| Shots on goal | FLA 30.1, OTT 28.7 | FLA 32, OTT 31 |
| Win chance | FLA 57% | OTT won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT B. Tkachuk | 4.4 | 5 | 0.88 | 1 | 33% | 0 |
| FLA M. Tkachuk | 3.2 | 4 | 1.00 | 1 | 30% | 0 |
| FLA C. Verhaeghe | 3.2 | 4 | 0.86 | 0 | 34% | 0 |
| FLA S. Reinhart | 3.0 | 1 | 0.95 | 0 | 39% | 0 |
| OTT D. Batherson | 2.6 | 1 | 0.75 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| FLA A. Barkov | 2.6 | 1 | 1.01 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| FLA S. Bennett | 2.6 | 4 | 0.64 | 1 | 26% | 0 |
| OTT S. Pinto | 2.6 | 3 | 0.54 | 1 | 22% | 1 |
| OTT T. Stützle | 2.5 | 3 | 0.85 | 2 | 27% | 2 |
| OTT D. Perron | 2.3 | 4 | 0.68 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| OTT C. Giroux | 2.3 | 1 | 0.76 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| FLA E. Rodrigues | 2.2 | 2 | 0.52 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| FLA G. Forsling | 2.1 | 2 | 0.55 | 1 | 14% | 1 |
| OTT J. Sanderson | 2.0 | 3 | 0.44 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| FLA A. Ekblad | 1.9 | 1 | 0.49 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| FLA A. Lundell | 1.9 | 4 | 0.51 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| OTT T. Chabot | 1.9 | 3 | 0.43 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| OTT J. Norris | 1.7 | 1 | 0.45 | 1 | 23% | 0 |
| OTT R. Greig | 1.6 | 0 | 0.40 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| OTT N. Gregor | 1.5 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| FLA E. Luostarinen | 1.4 | 1 | 0.38 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| OTT M. Amadio | 1.4 | 1 | 0.33 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| OTT A. Gaudette | 1.3 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| FLA M. Samoskevich | 1.3 | 3 | 0.18 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| FLA N. Schmidt | 1.2 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| OTT A. Zub | 1.2 | 3 | 0.27 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| OTT T. Hamonic | 1.2 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| FLA A. Greer | 1.1 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| OTT N. Cousins | 1.1 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| OTT N. Jensen | 1.1 | 2 | 0.23 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| OTT T. Kleven | 1.0 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| FLA N. Mikkola | 1.0 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| FLA J. Boqvist | 1.0 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| FLA U. Balinskis | 0.8 | 1 | 0.19 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| FLA D. Kulikov | 0.8 | 2 | 0.22 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| FLA J. Gadjovich | 0.7 | 0 | 0.13 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.