OTT beat FLA 3-0, with the chances close: 3.16 expected goals to 3.35. FLA outshot OTT 39 to 22. J. Sanderson led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). A. Greer had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 0.8. A. Forsberg stopped 39 of 39.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| OTT | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
- 1st 11:21OTTJ. Sanderson0.12 xG
- 1st 14:17OTTD. BathersonPP0.12 xG
- 3rd 17:40OTTM. HighmoreEN0.95 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
FLA 3.35 xGOTT 3.16 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
FLA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Reinhart | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 20:19 | 3:40 |
| S. Bennett | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 19:52 | 3:40 |
| A. Lundell | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 18:09 | 1:56 |
| B. Marchand | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:13 | 3:38 |
| M. Samoskevich | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:19 | 3:42 |
| E. Luostarinen | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:54 | 0:04 |
| J. Boqvist | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 13:36 | 0:04 |
| E. Rodrigues | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:47 | 1:57 |
| A. Greer | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 11:29 | 0:06 |
| T. Nosek | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:35 | 0:10 |
| C. Verhaeghe | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 10:32 | 1:54 |
| J. Gadjovich | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 9:41 | 0:06 |
| G. Forsling | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 24:54 | 1:53 |
| S. Jones | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 23:58 | 3:53 |
| N. Mikkola | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 20:05 | 0:10 |
| N. Schmidt | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:42 | 1:52 |
| U. Balinskis | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14:15 | 0:00 |
| J. Megna | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 13:55 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Bobrovsky | 21 | 19 | 2 | .905 | 58:55 | Loss |
| V. Vanecek | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
OTT Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Cozens | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 18:24 | 4:47 |
| S. Pinto | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 17:17 | 0:05 |
| D. Batherson | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 16:41 | 4:25 |
| M. Highmore | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 11:50 | 0:00 |
| R. Greig | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 18:20 | 3:32 |
| C. Giroux | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:42 | 2:38 |
| T. Stützle | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 16:40 | 4:39 |
| F. Zetterlund | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:57 | 2:43 |
| M. Amadio | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 14:03 | 0:02 |
| D. Perron | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:56 | 3:20 |
| A. Gaudette | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9:43 | 1:46 |
| A. Crookshank | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8:19 | 0:00 |
| J. Sanderson | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 25:16 | 4:50 |
| T. Chabot | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 23:26 | 2:41 |
| N. Jensen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 21:58 | 1:23 |
| A. Zub | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | +1 | 2 | 20:15 | 0:00 |
| T. Kleven | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:29 | 1:10 |
| N. Matinpalo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10:44 | 0:04 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Forsberg | 39 | 39 | 0 | 1.000 | 60:00 | Win |
| L. Ullmark | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | FLA 3.3, OTT 2.8 | FLA 0, OTT 3 |
| Total goals | 6.1 | 3 |
| Shots on goal | FLA 31.5, OTT 27.0 | FLA 39, OTT 22 |
| Win chance | FLA 58% | OTT won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA S. Bennett | 3.1 | 4 | 0.67 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| FLA S. Reinhart | 2.8 | 1 | 0.93 | 0 | 38% | 0 |
| FLA C. Verhaeghe | 2.8 | 0 | 0.67 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| FLA B. Marchand | 2.2 | 1 | 0.67 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| FLA S. Jones | 2.2 | 2 | 0.53 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| OTT J. Sanderson | 2.2 | 2 | 0.57 | 2 | 9% | 1 |
| FLA G. Forsling | 2.2 | 2 | 0.41 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| FLA M. Samoskevich | 2.2 | 4 | 0.50 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| OTT D. Cozens | 2.1 | 1 | 0.52 | 1 | 20% | 0 |
| OTT T. Chabot | 2.0 | 2 | 0.48 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| OTT D. Batherson | 2.0 | 4 | 0.63 | 1 | 23% | 1 |
| FLA A. Lundell | 1.8 | 4 | 0.53 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| OTT F. Zetterlund | 1.8 | 0 | 0.38 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| OTT S. Pinto | 1.8 | 0 | 0.47 | 1 | 21% | 0 |
| OTT T. Stützle | 1.8 | 2 | 0.79 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| FLA E. Rodrigues | 1.8 | 0 | 0.38 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| OTT D. Perron | 1.6 | 2 | 0.49 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| OTT R. Greig | 1.6 | 1 | 0.44 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| OTT C. Giroux | 1.4 | 2 | 0.55 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| FLA N. Mikkola | 1.3 | 2 | 0.23 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| OTT A. Crookshank | 1.2 | 1 | 0.18 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| OTT M. Amadio | 1.2 | 1 | 0.35 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| FLA E. Luostarinen | 1.1 | 1 | 0.32 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| FLA J. Boqvist | 1.1 | 2 | 0.32 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| OTT A. Zub | 1.1 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| FLA N. Schmidt | 1.1 | 2 | 0.27 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| OTT N. Jensen | 1.0 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| FLA U. Balinskis | 1.0 | 3 | 0.17 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| OTT N. Matinpalo | 0.9 | 0 | 0.06 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| OTT T. Kleven | 0.9 | 1 | 0.13 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| FLA A. Greer | 0.8 | 6 | 0.18 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| OTT A. Gaudette | 0.8 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| FLA J. Gadjovich | 0.8 | 3 | 0.13 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| FLA J. Megna | 0.8 | 0 | 0.13 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| OTT M. Highmore | 0.8 | 1 | 0.16 | 1 | 7% | 1 |
| FLA T. Nosek | 0.7 | 2 | 0.17 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.