Game Recap: FLA 3, OTT 2, January 10, 2026

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Game Recap

FLA3

FinalSat, Jan 10, 2026Every game that night

OTT2

FLA beat OTT 3-2 despite fewer good chances: 1.90 expected goals to 3.37. C. Verhaeghe led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). S. Bobrovsky stopped 17 of 19.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
FLA	1	1	1	3
OTT	1	0	1	2

1st 4:03OTTF. Zetterlund0.04 xG
1st 11:34FLAE. RodriguesPP0.10 xG
2nd 13:13FLAC. VerhaeghePP0.06 xG
3rd 3:48FLAG. Forsling0.03 xG
3rd 18:18OTTD. Batherson0.06 xG

Team Stats

FLAOTT

21Shots on goal19

1.90Expected goals3.37

45Shot attempts50

155v5 shots on goal11

2/4Power play0/5

24Hits20

6Blocked shots14

12Penalty minutes10

12Giveaways13

6Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

FLA 1.90 xGOTT 3.37 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

FLA19 on goal, 3 scored

OTT18 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

FLA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. Verhaeghe	C	1	1	2	2	0	0	-1	4	16:50	4:08
A. Lundell	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	20:55	4:10
E. Rodrigues	C	1	0	1	2	1	0	-2	2	18:00	1:31
S. Reinhart	C	0	0	0	3	2	0	-1	2	21:59	4:08
S. Bennett	C	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	2	20:08	4:10
E. Luostarinen	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	17:04	1:29
A. Greer	LW	0	0	0	0	0	1	+1	0	12:22	0:00
M. Samoskevich	RW	0	0	0	4	3	0	0	0	12:21	1:31
S. Vilmanis	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	11:48	0:00
J. Boqvist	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	8:13	0:00
L. Kunin	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	7:38	0:00
J. Studnicka	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	6:37	0:00
G. Forsling	D	1	1	2	1	2	0	0	0	22:55	2:02
A. Ekblad	D	0	2	2	2	1	1	0	0	22:27	1:29
N. Mikkola	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	-1	0	24:27	0:00
U. Balinskis	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	2	21:55	3:37
J. Petry	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	15:10	0:00
D. Sebrango	D	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	9:11	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Bobrovsky	19	17	2	.895	60:00	Win
D. Tarasov	0	0	0	–	0:00

OTT Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. Giroux	RW	0	2	2	1	1	0	+2	0	19:15	4:03
S. Pinto	C	0	1	1	0	3	2	+2	4	19:04	3:42
D. Batherson	RW	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	0	18:25	4:17
F. Zetterlund	LW	1	0	1	2	0	1	+1	0	15:09	3:29
T. Stützle	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	24:01	5:02
B. Tkachuk	LW	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	0	18:59	4:57
D. Cozens	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	16:34	3:37
M. Amadio	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	13:36	0:00
R. Greig	C	0	0	0	1	3	1	0	0	12:14	0:17
D. Perron	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	+1	0	10:24	2:59
N. Cousins	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	9:53	0:00
L. Eller	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	7:00	0:00
J. Sanderson	D	0	1	1	4	0	3	0	0	28:07	5:02
T. Chabot	D	0	0	0	3	3	4	+1	2	21:31	3:10
J. Spence	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	18:05	0:45
N. Jensen	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	15:14	0:07
T. Kleven	D	0	0	0	1	4	1	0	0	14:26	0:08
A. Zub	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	4	12:55	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
L. Meriläinen	21	18	3	.857	57:48	Loss
H. Shepard	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

FLA

Line 1S. Reinhart13:49A. Lundell11:08E. Luostarinen10:23

Line 2E. Rodrigues13:45M. Samoskevich10:50S. Vilmanis11:48

Line 3C. Verhaeghe11:22A. Greer12:14S. Bennett10:12

Line 4L. Kunin7:01J. Boqvist7:03J. Studnicka6:37

Pair 1N. Mikkola19:05U. Balinskis16:40

Pair 2A. Ekblad14:06G. Forsling13:54

Pair 3J. Petry11:37D. Sebrango9:11

OTT

Line 1M. Amadio13:36S. Pinto12:05C. Giroux9:50

Line 2D. Batherson11:48D. Cozens11:17D. Perron6:35

Line 3T. Stützle12:26B. Tkachuk12:02F. Zetterlund10:27

Line 4N. Cousins9:53R. Greig9:34L. Eller7:00

Pair 1N. Jensen12:46T. Chabot16:02

Pair 2J. Sanderson16:24A. Zub12:07

Pair 3T. Kleven10:58J. Spence15:55

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamBrady Tkachuk FLA Faces OTT, his team until Apr 20263 SOG
Old teamLars Eller FLA Faces OTT, his team until Apr 20260 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	FLA 3.0, OTT 3.0	FLA 3, OTT 2
Total goals	6.0	5
Shots on goal	FLA 26.5, OTT 27.5	FLA 21, OTT 19
Win chance	FLA 50%	FLA won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
OTT B. Tkachuk	3.4	3	0.76	0	30%	0
FLA S. Bennett	3.0	1	0.88	0	33%	0
FLA S. Reinhart	2.8	3	1.10	0	41%	0
FLA A. Lundell	2.3	1	0.72	1	23%	0
OTT J. Sanderson	2.3	4	0.69	1	11%	0
FLA E. Rodrigues	2.2	2	0.62	1	21%	1
FLA C. Verhaeghe	2.2	2	0.73	2	27%	1
OTT T. Stützle	2.2	0	0.95	0	28%	0
OTT D. Cozens	2.1	0	0.61	0	21%	0
OTT D. Batherson	2.1	2	0.78	1	26%	1
FLA M. Samoskevich	1.9	4	0.40	0	14%	0
OTT S. Pinto	1.8	0	0.58	1	24%	0
OTT T. Chabot	1.8	3	0.54	0	10%	0
OTT C. Giroux	1.6	1	0.64	2	20%	0
FLA A. Ekblad	1.6	2	0.53	2	12%	0
FLA E. Luostarinen	1.5	0	0.54	0	16%	0
OTT R. Greig	1.5	1	0.38	0	15%	0
OTT F. Zetterlund	1.5	2	0.34	1	15%	1
FLA G. Forsling	1.5	1	0.37	2	10%	1
OTT D. Perron	1.4	0	0.46	0	19%	0
FLA A. Greer	1.3	0	0.31	0	13%	0
OTT M. Amadio	1.2	0	0.38	0	17%	0
OTT J. Spence	1.2	1	0.34	0	4%	0
OTT T. Kleven	1.1	1	0.17	0	3%	0
FLA N. Mikkola	1.0	1	0.22	0	5%	0
OTT A. Zub	1.0	1	0.26	0	5%	0
FLA U. Balinskis	1.0	1	0.22	0	5%	0
FLA J. Petry	0.9	0	0.26	0	4%	0
OTT L. Eller	0.9	0	0.21	0	10%	0
OTT N. Cousins	0.8	0	0.21	0	9%	0
OTT N. Jensen	0.8	0	0.22	0	3%	0
FLA L. Kunin	0.7	0	0.13	0	8%	0
FLA J. Boqvist	0.7	0	0.21	0	10%	0
FLA J. Studnicka	0.7	2	0.08	0	4%	0
FLA D. Sebrango	0.5	1	0.13	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 22 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.