Game Recap: FLA 1, OTT 5, April 9, 2026

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Game Recap

FLA1

FinalThu, Apr 9, 2026Every game that night

OTT5

OTT beat FLA 5-1, and the chances backed it up: 4.23 expected goals to 1.81. F. Zetterlund led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). A. Zub had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.2. L. Ullmark stopped 22 of 23.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
FLA	0	0	1	1
OTT	2	0	3	5

1st 6:49OTTD. BathersonPP0.10 xG
1st 17:00OTTF. Zetterlund0.07 xG
3rd 3:03OTTA. Zub0.19 xG
3rd 14:17FLAJ. Boqvist0.15 xG
3rd 16:43OTTC. GirouxEN0.52 xG
3rd 17:02OTTF. Zetterlund0.17 xG

Team Stats

FLAOTT

23Shots on goal28

1.81Expected goals4.23

53Shot attempts60

215v5 shots on goal23

0/1Power play1/1

28Hits21

14Blocked shots13

2Penalty minutes2

11Giveaways10

4Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

FLA 1.81 xGOTT 4.23 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

FLA23 on goal, 1 scored

OTT26 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

FLA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
E. Luostarinen	C	0	1	1	3	2	0	0	0	18:53	2:00
J. Boqvist	C	1	0	1	3	1	0	+1	0	15:59	0:00
A. Greer	LW	0	1	1	1	2	2	+1	0	15:54	0:00
M. Samoskevich	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	-2	0	18:19	2:00
C. Verhaeghe	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	-2	0	18:15	2:00
S. Bennett	C	0	0	0	3	1	1	-2	0	17:44	2:00
C. Schwindt	RW	0	0	0	1	4	0	-1	0	14:09	0:00
T. Nosek	LW	0	0	0	1	3	1	-1	0	13:51	0:00
N. Gregor	LW	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	0	12:32	0:00
V. Hinostroza	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	0	12:20	0:00
L. Kunin	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	0	12:10	0:00
N. Foote	LW	0	0	0	0	2	1	-1	0	11:56	0:00
G. Forsling	D	0	0	0	1	0	4	-3	2	27:05	0:00
D. Sebrango	D	0	0	0	3	3	1	0	0	20:24	0:00
T. Bjornfot	D	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	19:54	0:00
M. Alscher	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	19:28	0:00
M. Benning	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-2	0	17:22	2:00
L. Jansson	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	13:37	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Bobrovsky	27	23	4	.852	59:12	Loss
D. Tarasov	0	0	0	–	0:00

OTT Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
F. Zetterlund	LW	2	0	2	2	1	2	+2	0	11:48	0:00
B. Tkachuk	LW	0	1	1	1	2	0	0	2	17:13	0:56
D. Cozens	C	0	1	1	2	1	0	0	0	15:51	0:56
C. Giroux	RW	1	0	1	3	0	1	+1	0	15:12	0:00
D. Batherson	RW	1	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	13:46	0:56
L. Eller	C	0	1	1	0	1	0	+2	0	13:18	0:00
M. Amadio	RW	0	0	0	2	2	0	+1	0	17:04	0:00
T. Stützle	C	0	0	0	4	0	1	0	0	16:49	0:56
R. Greig	C	0	0	0	2	2	1	+1	0	16:48	0:00
S. Pinto	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	15:09	0:00
N. Cousins	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	14:31	0:00
W. Foegele	LW	0	0	0	1	3	1	+2	0	11:18	0:00
J. Sanderson	D	0	2	2	2	0	3	+2	0	22:22	0:56
A. Zub	D	1	0	1	4	0	2	+2	0	22:32	0:00
J. Spence	D	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	19:23	0:00
T. Chabot	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	21:16	0:00
N. Matinpalo	D	0	0	0	1	4	1	+1	0	17:09	0:00
L. Thomson	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	0	16:31	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
L. Ullmark	23	22	1	.957	60:00	Win
J. Reimer	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

FLA

Line 1A. Greer15:54J. Boqvist15:29E. Luostarinen15:33

Line 2C. Verhaeghe15:27M. Samoskevich15:31S. Bennett14:56

Line 3T. Nosek13:25C. Schwindt13:45N. Gregor12:32

Line 4L. Kunin12:10N. Foote11:56V. Hinostroza12:20

Pair 1D. Sebrango19:44M. Alscher19:11

Pair 2G. Forsling26:17L. Jansson13:37

Pair 3T. Bjornfot19:15M. Benning14:18

OTT

Line 1B. Tkachuk16:17D. Cozens14:55R. Greig14:43

Line 2C. Giroux14:09T. Stützle15:16D. Batherson12:50

Line 3N. Cousins14:31M. Amadio15:39S. Pinto13:55

Line 4L. Eller13:18W. Foegele11:18F. Zetterlund11:48

Pair 1T. Chabot21:16J. Spence19:23

Pair 2A. Zub19:44J. Sanderson18:38

Pair 3L. Thomson16:31N. Matinpalo17:09

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamBrady Tkachuk FLA Faces OTT, his team until Apr 20261 A, 1 SOG
Old teamLars Eller FLA Faces OTT, his team until Apr 20261 A, 0 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	FLA 2.8, OTT 3.5	FLA 1, OTT 5
Total goals	6.3	6
Shots on goal	FLA 23.9, OTT 29.9	FLA 23, OTT 28
Win chance	OTT 61%	OTT won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
OTT B. Tkachuk	3.4	1	0.89	1	31%	0
FLA S. Bennett	2.6	3	0.80	0	30%	0
FLA C. Verhaeghe	2.5	1	0.83	0	31%	0
OTT J. Sanderson	2.3	2	0.73	2	12%	0
OTT D. Cozens	2.3	2	0.67	1	23%	0
FLA M. Samoskevich	2.2	2	0.50	0	19%	0
OTT T. Chabot	2.1	1	0.68	0	13%	0
OTT T. Stützle	2.0	4	0.97	0	28%	0
OTT S. Pinto	1.9	0	0.62	0	25%	0
OTT J. Spence	1.9	1	0.59	1	10%	0
OTT D. Batherson	1.9	1	0.78	1	26%	1
FLA A. Greer	1.5	1	0.40	1	17%	0
FLA G. Forsling	1.5	1	0.38	0	9%	0
OTT R. Greig	1.5	2	0.44	0	16%	0
FLA E. Luostarinen	1.4	3	0.45	1	15%	0
OTT C. Giroux	1.4	3	0.56	1	18%	1
OTT W. Foegele	1.3	1	0.34	0	16%	0
OTT F. Zetterlund	1.3	2	0.33	2	14%	2
OTT A. Zub	1.2	4	0.37	1	6%	1
OTT M. Amadio	1.2	2	0.46	0	20%	0
FLA N. Gregor	1.1	0	0.20	0	10%	0
OTT N. Cousins	1.1	0	0.31	0	11%	0
OTT N. Matinpalo	1.1	1	0.15	0	3%	0
FLA V. Hinostroza	1.1	0	0.26	0	11%	0
FLA N. Foote	1.0	0	0.23	0	13%	0
FLA J. Boqvist	1.0	3	0.29	1	13%	1
OTT L. Eller	1.0	0	0.23	1	10%	0
OTT L. Thomson	1.0	1	0.26	0	3%	0
FLA L. Kunin	0.9	1	0.16	0	9%	0
FLA T. Nosek	0.8	1	0.21	0	6%	0
FLA D. Sebrango	0.8	3	0.18	0	3%	0
FLA C. Schwindt	0.8	1	0.23	0	9%	0
FLA M. Benning	0.8	0	0.24	0	4%	0
FLA T. Bjornfot	0.6	0	0.11	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 20 of 34 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.