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Game Recap
FLA4
PIT5
PIT beat FLA 5-4 in overtime despite fewer good chances: 1.84 expected goals to 2.64. FLA outshot PIT 41 to 16. M. Tkachuk led the way with 4 points (2 G, 2 A). M. Tkachuk had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 2.9. T. Jarry stopped 37 of 41.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| PIT | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 |
- 1st 9:20PITO. Pickering0.01 xG
- 1st 10:32PITE. Malkin0.16 xG
- 1st 17:24FLAM. Tkachuk0.08 xG
- 2nd 6:54PITK. Letang0.01 xG
- 3rd 3:45PITM. Pettersson0.23 xG
- 3rd 6:55FLAS. Bennett0.23 xG
- 3rd 8:58FLAA. Boqvist0.11 xG
- 3rd 11:27FLAM. TkachukPP0.17 xG
- OT 1:31PITB. Rust0.09 xG
Team Stats
FLAPIT
41Shots on goal16
2.64Expected goals1.84
81Shot attempts46
385v5 shots on goal13
1/1Power play0/1
38Hits14
11Blocked shots21
4Penalty minutes4
13Giveaways15
10Takeaways5
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
FLA 2.64 xGPIT 1.84 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
FLA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Tkachuk | LW | 2 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 20:23 | 1:38 |
| J. Boqvist | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:20 | 0:00 |
| A. Barkov | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:18 | 1:38 |
| S. Bennett | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:17 | 0:00 |
| C. Verhaeghe | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 20:28 | 1:38 |
| S. Reinhart | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:55 | 1:38 |
| E. Rodrigues | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:18 | 0:00 |
| A. Lundell | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:51 | 0:00 |
| E. Luostarinen | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:36 | 0:00 |
| T. Nosek | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 9:17 | 0:00 |
| A. Greer | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 8:24 | 0:00 |
| J. Gadjovich | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 8:00 | 0:00 |
| A. Ekblad | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 24:44 | 1:38 |
| D. Kulikov | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 2 | 17:19 | 0:00 |
| A. Boqvist | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:09 | 0:00 |
| G. Forsling | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 0 | 24:29 | 0:00 |
| N. Mikkola | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 20:42 | 0:00 |
| N. Schmidt | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:03 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Knight | 16 | 11 | 5 | .688 | 61:31 | OT loss |
| C. Driedger | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
PIT Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E. Malkin | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:33 | 1:25 |
| B. Lizotte | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 13:17 | 0:00 |
| S. Crosby | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 20:57 | 1:24 |
| B. Rust | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 20:51 | 1:12 |
| R. Rakell | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 19:48 | 1:25 |
| D. O'Connor | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 16:15 | 0:00 |
| P. Tomasino | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:39 | 0:48 |
| A. Beauvillier | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 14:02 | 0:00 |
| M. Bunting | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 13:25 | 0:35 |
| N. Acciari | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 11:12 | 0:00 |
| K. Hayes | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 8:52 | 0:36 |
| M. Nieto | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 8:51 | 0:00 |
| M. Pettersson | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 25:39 | 0:00 |
| K. Letang | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 23:43 | 0:35 |
| M. Grzelcyk | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:58 | 0:25 |
| O. Pickering | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:35 | 0:00 |
| E. Karlsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 25:30 | 1:35 |
| R. Shea | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:48 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Jarry | 41 | 37 | 4 | .902 | 61:31 | Win |
| A. Nedeljkovic | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | FLA 3.3, PIT 2.9 | FLA 4, PIT 5 |
| Total goals | 6.2 | 9 |
| Shots on goal | FLA 31.4, PIT 29.7 | FLA 41, PIT 16 |
| Win chance | FLA 56% | PIT won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA M. Tkachuk | 2.9 | 7 | 1.07 | 4 | 30% | 2 |
| FLA C. Verhaeghe | 2.8 | 3 | 0.84 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| PIT S. Crosby | 2.7 | 1 | 0.99 | 1 | 32% | 0 |
| FLA S. Reinhart | 2.6 | 3 | 1.01 | 0 | 39% | 0 |
| FLA S. Bennett | 2.6 | 3 | 0.73 | 1 | 27% | 1 |
| PIT B. Rust | 2.5 | 2 | 0.71 | 1 | 28% | 1 |
| FLA A. Barkov | 2.3 | 3 | 1.08 | 1 | 29% | 0 |
| PIT E. Karlsson | 2.3 | 1 | 0.68 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| PIT R. Rakell | 2.3 | 0 | 0.61 | 1 | 26% | 0 |
| PIT K. Letang | 2.1 | 2 | 0.57 | 1 | 11% | 1 |
| PIT E. Malkin | 2.0 | 2 | 0.76 | 2 | 25% | 1 |
| FLA E. Rodrigues | 2.0 | 2 | 0.54 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| FLA G. Forsling | 1.9 | 3 | 0.51 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| FLA A. Ekblad | 1.8 | 5 | 0.53 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| PIT M. Bunting | 1.8 | 1 | 0.54 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| FLA A. Lundell | 1.7 | 1 | 0.55 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| PIT A. Beauvillier | 1.5 | 1 | 0.32 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| PIT P. Tomasino | 1.5 | 1 | 0.43 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| PIT D. O'Connor | 1.5 | 2 | 0.33 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| PIT M. Pettersson | 1.2 | 1 | 0.37 | 1 | 4% | 1 |
| PIT K. Hayes | 1.2 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| PIT M. Grzelcyk | 1.1 | 0 | 0.29 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| FLA E. Luostarinen | 1.1 | 0 | 0.36 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| FLA N. Mikkola | 1.1 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| FLA N. Schmidt | 1.1 | 3 | 0.30 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| PIT N. Acciari | 1.1 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| PIT B. Lizotte | 1.0 | 0 | 0.28 | 2 | 12% | 0 |
| FLA A. Boqvist | 1.0 | 2 | 0.30 | 1 | 8% | 1 |
| FLA J. Boqvist | 1.0 | 0 | 0.30 | 2 | 13% | 0 |
| FLA A. Greer | 1.0 | 3 | 0.22 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| FLA D. Kulikov | 0.9 | 1 | 0.24 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| PIT M. Nieto | 0.9 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| FLA T. Nosek | 0.8 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| PIT R. Shea | 0.6 | 0 | 0.10 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| PIT O. Pickering | 0.6 | 1 | 0.20 | 1 | 4% | 1 |
| FLA J. Gadjovich | 0.6 | 0 | 0.12 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.