Game Recap: FLA 4, PIT 9, April 4, 2026

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Game Recap

FLA4

FinalSat, Apr 4, 2026Every game that night

PIT9

PIT beat FLA 9-4, and the chances backed it up: 3.67 expected goals to 1.93. PIT outshot FLA 31 to 23. E. Malkin scored three for PIT. E. Malkin had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.2. A. Silovs stopped 19 of 23.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
FLA	2	0	2	4
PIT	2	6	1	9

1st 0:20PITN. Acciari0.17 xG
1st 5:06PITE. KarlssonPP0.07 xG
1st 7:10FLAA. Greer0.45 xG
1st 14:31FLAS. Jones0.02 xG
2nd 1:51PITA. Mantha0.02 xG
2nd 5:51PITE. MalkinPP0.05 xG
2nd 8:27PITE. Malkin0.23 xG
2nd 9:53PITE. Soderblom0.13 xG
2nd 17:48PITR. RakellPP0.06 xG
2nd 18:07PITR. Shea0.06 xG
3rd 3:30PITE. Malkin0.26 xG
3rd 8:02FLAN. Gregor0.20 xG
3rd 10:46FLAM. Samoskevich0.07 xG

Team Stats

FLAPIT

23Shots on goal31

1.93Expected goals3.67

41Shot attempts63

225v5 shots on goal26

0/0Power play3/3

18Hits10

14Blocked shots11

11Penalty minutes5

21Giveaways17

0Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

FLA 1.93 xGPIT 3.67 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

FLA23 on goal, 4 scored

PIT31 on goal, 9 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

FLA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Greer	LW	1	1	2	2	1	1	0	0	17:04	0:00
M. Tkachuk	LW	0	1	1	0	3	0	-1	0	15:41	0:00
S. Bennett	C	0	1	1	1	0	1	-1	0	14:53	0:00
M. Samoskevich	RW	1	0	1	3	2	0	-1	0	14:05	0:00
N. Gregor	LW	1	0	1	2	0	1	-1	0	13:28	0:00
C. Reinhardt	LW	0	1	1	2	1	0	+2	0	13:19	0:00
C. Schwindt	RW	0	1	1	0	2	0	+1	0	12:22	0:00
E. Luostarinen	C	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	2	16:21	0:00
T. Nosek	LW	0	0	0	0	1	1	-2	0	16:19	0:00
C. Verhaeghe	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	-2	0	14:52	0:00
J. Boqvist	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-2	0	14:39	0:00
L. Kunin	C	0	0	0	1	2	1	+1	5	12:38	0:00
S. Jones	D	1	0	1	1	0	2	0	0	22:43	0:00
G. Forsling	D	0	1	1	3	0	1	0	0	21:17	0:00
D. Sebrango	D	0	0	0	3	1	1	0	2	22:42	0:00
M. Benning	D	0	0	0	2	0	2	-2	2	18:09	0:00
M. Hovorka	D	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	17:55	0:00
T. Bjornfot	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	-2	0	17:20	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Bobrovsky	19	13	6	.684	29:53	Loss
D. Tarasov	12	9	3	.750	30:07

PIT Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
E. Malkin	C	3	1	4	6	0	0	0	0	18:52	4:04
S. Crosby	C	0	2	2	0	0	1	0	0	17:32	3:21
R. Rakell	RW	1	1	2	5	0	0	-1	0	17:19	3:21
A. Mantha	RW	1	1	2	1	1	0	+2	0	15:12	0:52
E. Soderblom	LW	1	1	2	3	2	0	+1	0	13:18	0:00
E. Chinakhov	RW	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	17:10	1:46
T. Novak	C	0	1	1	2	0	0	-1	0	17:09	0:52
C. Dewar	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	+2	0	14:22	0:00
N. Acciari	C	1	0	1	3	0	1	+1	0	14:09	0:00
B. Rust	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	15:16	2:27
B. Kindel	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	+1	0	12:10	0:09
J. Brazeau	RW	0	0	0	1	3	0	+1	0	11:37	0:00
E. Karlsson	D	1	3	4	2	0	1	+2	0	20:30	3:21
R. Shea	D	1	0	1	1	0	2	-1	0	19:24	0:00
S. Girard	D	0	1	1	2	0	0	+2	0	18:41	0:00
K. Letang	D	0	0	0	1	0	3	+1	0	20:37	0:52
P. Wotherspoon	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	+2	0	18:44	0:00
C. Clifton	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	-2	5	17:58	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Silovs	23	19	4	.826	60:00	Win
S. Skinner	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

FLA

Line 1C. Verhaeghe14:52M. Tkachuk14:39S. Bennett13:51

Line 2A. Greer15:15E. Luostarinen14:56M. Samoskevich14:05

Line 3T. Nosek14:33J. Boqvist13:17N. Gregor13:28

Line 4C. Reinhardt13:19C. Schwindt12:22L. Kunin12:38

Pair 1S. Jones19:32D. Sebrango20:56

Pair 2G. Forsling18:50M. Benning18:09

Pair 3T. Bjornfot17:20M. Hovorka16:53

PIT

Line 1N. Acciari14:09C. Dewar14:22E. Soderblom13:18

Line 2E. Malkin14:48R. Rakell13:58T. Novak16:17

Line 3E. Chinakhov15:24S. Crosby14:11B. Rust12:49

Line 4A. Mantha14:20B. Kindel12:01J. Brazeau11:37

Pair 1K. Letang19:45S. Girard18:41

Pair 2C. Clifton17:58R. Shea19:24

Pair 3P. Wotherspoon18:44E. Karlsson17:09

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	FLA 3.0, PIT 3.4	FLA 4, PIT 9
Total goals	6.4	13
Shots on goal	FLA 26.1, PIT 29.3	FLA 23, PIT 31
Win chance	PIT 57%	PIT won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
FLA M. Tkachuk	2.7	0	1.06	1	32%	0
FLA S. Bennett	2.7	1	0.81	1	30%	0
PIT E. Karlsson	2.5	2	0.83	4	15%	1
FLA C. Verhaeghe	2.5	2	0.82	0	30%	0
PIT B. Rust	2.4	1	0.89	0	31%	0
PIT R. Rakell	2.4	5	0.81	2	29%	1
PIT E. Chinakhov	2.3	1	0.63	1	25%	0
PIT E. Malkin	2.2	6	0.86	4	25%	3
PIT S. Crosby	2.1	0	1.01	2	31%	0
FLA M. Samoskevich	2.0	3	0.43	1	16%	1
PIT A. Mantha	1.8	1	0.74	2	27%	1
FLA S. Jones	1.7	1	0.50	1	11%	1
PIT B. Kindel	1.7	0	0.42	0	18%	0
FLA A. Greer	1.5	2	0.40	2	17%	1
PIT K. Letang	1.5	1	0.48	0	8%	0
PIT T. Novak	1.5	2	0.54	1	21%	0
FLA G. Forsling	1.5	3	0.35	1	9%	0
FLA E. Luostarinen	1.4	1	0.46	0	15%	0
PIT C. Dewar	1.3	1	0.36	1	14%	0
PIT J. Brazeau	1.3	1	0.40	0	17%	0
PIT N. Acciari	1.2	3	0.27	1	12%	1
FLA N. Gregor	1.2	2	0.21	1	10%	1
PIT E. Soderblom	1.2	3	0.27	2	12%	1
FLA J. Boqvist	1.1	0	0.30	0	14%	0
PIT S. Girard	1.0	2	0.35	1	5%	0
PIT P. Wotherspoon	1.0	1	0.34	0	3%	0
FLA L. Kunin	1.0	1	0.16	0	10%	0
FLA T. Nosek	1.0	0	0.24	0	7%	0
PIT C. Clifton	0.9	0	0.23	0	4%	0
FLA C. Reinhardt	0.9	2	0.18	1	10%	0
PIT R. Shea	0.8	1	0.31	1	5%	1
FLA D. Sebrango	0.7	3	0.16	0	3%	0
FLA C. Schwindt	0.7	0	0.20	1	8%	0
FLA M. Benning	0.7	2	0.29	0	4%	0
FLA T. Bjornfot	0.6	0	0.10	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 18 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.