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Game Recap
FLA2
PIT5
PIT beat FLA 5-2, with the chances close: 3.70 expected goals to 3.53. FLA outshot PIT 31 to 23. S. Crosby led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). C. Verhaeghe had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.4. A. Silovs stopped 29 of 31.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| PIT | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 |
- 1st 11:00PITE. Soderblom0.03 xG
- 1st 16:15FLAC. Schwindt0.07 xG
- 1st 16:50PITS. Crosby0.10 xG
- 1st 19:12PITR. RakellPP0.19 xG
- 2nd 18:08PITR. Rakell0.03 xG
- 3rd 3:48PITB. Rust0.18 xG
- 3rd 14:15FLAC. VerhaeghePP0.06 xG
Team Stats
FLAPIT
31Shots on goal23
3.53Expected goals3.70
72Shot attempts44
185v5 shots on goal12
1/6Power play1/7
28Hits7
9Blocked shots16
23Penalty minutes21
14Giveaways13
4Takeaways4
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
FLA 3.53 xGPIT 3.70 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
FLA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Verhaeghe | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22:43 | 9:20 |
| C. Schwindt | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 9:45 | 0:00 |
| V. Hinostroza | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 9:01 | 1:30 |
| S. Bennett | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 21:28 | 9:14 |
| M. Tkachuk | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 21:09 | 9:39 |
| M. Samoskevich | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 20:38 | 9:19 |
| E. Luostarinen | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 4 | 16:59 | 0:55 |
| A. Greer | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 15:51 | 0:15 |
| J. Boqvist | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 12:45 | 1:35 |
| T. Nosek | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:19 | 0:00 |
| N. Gregor | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:09 | 0:00 |
| N. Foote | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 5:37 | 0:00 |
| S. Jones | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 24:50 | 9:03 |
| G. Forsling | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 24:21 | 1:29 |
| D. Kulikov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 21:59 | 0:00 |
| D. Sebrango | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14:00 | 0:00 |
| M. Benning | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:58 | 1:46 |
| T. Bjornfot | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 | 12:36 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Tarasov | 23 | 18 | 5 | .783 | 60:00 | Loss |
| S. Bobrovsky | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
PIT Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Crosby | C | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 17:34 | 8:03 |
| B. Rust | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 6 | 18:50 | 8:44 |
| R. Rakell | RW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:16 | 7:23 |
| E. Malkin | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:14 | 8:09 |
| E. Chinakhov | RW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 13:37 | 2:50 |
| T. Novak | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:29 | 3:42 |
| E. Soderblom | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 10:18 | 0:09 |
| C. Dewar | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 18:30 | 0:00 |
| N. Acciari | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 18:19 | 0:00 |
| A. Mantha | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 11:45 | 3:27 |
| B. Kindel | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 11:35 | 3:24 |
| J. Brazeau | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 6:32 | 0:09 |
| E. Karlsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21:27 | 8:08 |
| R. Shea | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 18:48 | 0:09 |
| P. Wotherspoon | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 7 | 18:27 | 0:06 |
| C. Clifton | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | +2 | 4 | 17:31 | 0:09 |
| S. Girard | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 17:17 | 0:09 |
| K. Letang | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 16:06 | 3:42 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Silovs | 31 | 29 | 2 | .935 | 60:00 | Win |
| T. Gauthier | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
FLA
Line 1E. Luostarinen11:42M. Samoskevich11:09A. Greer11:36
Line 2C. Verhaeghe11:05S. Bennett10:05M. Tkachuk10:01
Line 3J. Boqvist7:30N. Gregor7:12T. Nosek6:01
Line 4V. Hinostroza6:47N. Foote5:37C. Schwindt6:51
Pair 1D. Kulikov13:44G. Forsling15:11
Pair 2D. Sebrango11:26M. Benning11:11
Pair 3S. Jones9:42T. Bjornfot9:10
PIT
Line 1N. Acciari9:58C. Dewar10:26E. Soderblom9:42
Line 2S. Crosby9:31B. Rust8:43E. Chinakhov10:11
Line 4J. Brazeau6:23B. Kindel5:47A. Mantha8:18
Pair 2C. Clifton11:49R. Shea10:13
Pair 3P. Wotherspoon13:45E. Karlsson9:26
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | FLA 3.0, PIT 3.5 | FLA 2, PIT 5 |
| Total goals | 6.5 | 7 |
| Shots on goal | FLA 25.7, PIT 29.2 | FLA 31, PIT 23 |
| Win chance | PIT 59% | PIT won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA M. Tkachuk | 2.6 | 3 | 1.02 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| FLA S. Bennett | 2.5 | 3 | 0.78 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| PIT E. Karlsson | 2.4 | 2 | 0.82 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| FLA C. Verhaeghe | 2.4 | 5 | 0.78 | 1 | 29% | 1 |
| PIT R. Rakell | 2.4 | 3 | 0.81 | 2 | 29% | 2 |
| PIT B. Rust | 2.3 | 3 | 0.85 | 2 | 30% | 1 |
| PIT E. Chinakhov | 2.3 | 1 | 0.63 | 2 | 25% | 0 |
| PIT E. Malkin | 2.3 | 2 | 0.90 | 2 | 26% | 0 |
| PIT S. Crosby | 2.1 | 4 | 1.01 | 3 | 31% | 1 |
| FLA M. Samoskevich | 2.0 | 1 | 0.42 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| PIT A. Mantha | 1.8 | 0 | 0.73 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| FLA S. Jones | 1.6 | 1 | 0.49 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| PIT B. Kindel | 1.6 | 1 | 0.40 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| FLA A. Greer | 1.6 | 0 | 0.42 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| PIT T. Novak | 1.6 | 3 | 0.56 | 1 | 21% | 0 |
| PIT K. Letang | 1.5 | 1 | 0.47 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| FLA G. Forsling | 1.5 | 4 | 0.35 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| FLA E. Luostarinen | 1.4 | 1 | 0.45 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| PIT C. Dewar | 1.3 | 1 | 0.37 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| PIT J. Brazeau | 1.3 | 0 | 0.40 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| FLA N. Gregor | 1.3 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| PIT N. Acciari | 1.3 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| FLA V. Hinostroza | 1.2 | 1 | 0.30 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| PIT E. Soderblom | 1.2 | 1 | 0.30 | 1 | 13% | 1 |
| FLA N. Foote | 1.2 | 2 | 0.27 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| FLA J. Boqvist | 1.0 | 2 | 0.30 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| PIT S. Girard | 1.0 | 0 | 0.35 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| PIT P. Wotherspoon | 1.0 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| FLA T. Nosek | 0.9 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| PIT C. Clifton | 0.9 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| PIT R. Shea | 0.9 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| FLA D. Sebrango | 0.9 | 1 | 0.16 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| FLA D. Kulikov | 0.8 | 2 | 0.18 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| FLA M. Benning | 0.8 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| FLA C. Schwindt | 0.7 | 3 | 0.22 | 1 | 8% | 1 |
| FLA T. Bjornfot | 0.6 | 0 | 0.10 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 26 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.