Game Recap: FLA 4, TBL 2, December 22, 2024

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Game Recap

FLA4

FinalSun, Dec 22, 2024Every game that night

TBL2

FLA beat TBL 4-2, and the chances backed it up: 2.76 expected goals to 1.78. S. Reinhart led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). S. Knight stopped 19 of 21.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
FLA	1	2	1	4
TBL	1	0	1	2

1st 15:51FLAS. ReinhartPP0.09 xG
1st 19:55TBLN. Paul0.13 xG
2nd 10:28FLAA. GreerSH0.16 xG
2nd 11:10FLAE. LuostarinenSH0.11 xG
3rd 3:26TBLB. Point0.18 xG
3rd 19:29FLAS. ReinhartEN0.81 xG

Team Stats

FLATBL

26Shots on goal21

2.76Expected goals1.78

52Shot attempts44

185v5 shots on goal20

1/2Power play0/3

26Hits24

14Blocked shots12

8Penalty minutes6

7Giveaways20

9Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

FLA 2.76 xGTBL 1.78 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

FLA26 on goal, 4 scored

TBL20 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

FLA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
S. Reinhart	C	2	0	2	2	1	3	+1	0	20:31	1:49
A. Barkov	C	0	1	1	1	2	2	+1	0	20:52	1:45
A. Lundell	C	0	1	1	1	1	0	+2	0	14:50	0:47
M. Tkachuk	LW	0	1	1	2	0	0	-1	0	13:40	1:47
E. Luostarinen	C	1	0	1	1	3	1	+1	0	13:13	0:00
A. Greer	LW	1	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	10:42	0:00
T. Nosek	LW	0	1	1	1	1	1	+1	0	9:51	0:00
E. Rodrigues	C	0	0	0	1	4	0	-1	4	17:29	0:47
S. Bennett	C	0	0	0	2	3	0	-2	2	16:16	0:51
C. Verhaeghe	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	16:13	1:49
M. Samoskevich	RW	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	12:42	0:49
R. Asplund	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	7:56	0:00
A. Ekblad	D	0	1	1	1	1	2	-1	0	25:17	1:46
G. Forsling	D	0	0	0	4	1	2	0	0	24:46	0:00
N. Mikkola	D	0	0	0	3	1	1	+1	0	21:07	0:00
D. Kulikov	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	+2	0	20:09	0:00
N. Schmidt	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	13:25	0:50
U. Balinskis	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	2	13:04	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Knight	21	19	2	.905	59:57	Win
S. Bobrovsky	0	0	0	–	0:00

TBL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
B. Point	C	1	0	1	2	0	1	-1	0	24:02	4:39
J. Guentzel	C	0	1	1	3	0	0	-1	0	21:59	5:18
N. Paul	LW	1	0	1	3	0	0	0	0	14:22	1:25
N. Kucherov	RW	0	0	0	2	0	1	-1	0	23:47	5:02
B. Hagel	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	-2	2	20:09	3:05
A. Cirelli	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	-2	0	17:48	0:58
M. Chaffee	RW	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	12:29	2:12
Z. Girgensons	C	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	12:12	0:00
M. Eyssimont	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	10:07	0:00
C. Geekie	C	0	0	0	1	3	0	-1	0	9:53	1:21
L. Glendening	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	9:52	0:00
C. Atkinson	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	0	9:04	0:00
D. Raddysh	D	0	2	2	1	3	1	0	0	20:53	2:42
V. Hedman	D	0	1	1	2	1	1	+1	0	24:14	3:15
R. McDonagh	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	17:24	0:03
N. Perbix	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	2	16:38	0:00
E. Lilleberg	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	2	16:16	0:00
E. Cernak	D	0	0	0	1	6	2	0	0	16:09	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Vasilevskiy	25	22	3	.880	58:06	Loss
J. Johansson	0	0	0	–	0:00

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	FLA 3.2, TBL 3.3	FLA 4, TBL 2
Total goals	6.6	6
Shots on goal	FLA 30.1, TBL 27.7	FLA 26, TBL 21
Win chance	TBL 51%	FLA won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
FLA M. Tkachuk	3.0	2	1.09	1	32%	0
FLA C. Verhaeghe	2.8	2	0.82	0	32%	0
TBL N. Kucherov	2.7	2	1.41	0	32%	0
TBL J. Guentzel	2.6	3	0.97	1	36%	0
FLA S. Reinhart	2.4	2	0.93	2	37%	2
FLA A. Barkov	2.4	1	1.04	1	29%	0
FLA S. Bennett	2.3	2	0.64	0	25%	0
TBL B. Point	2.2	2	1.03	1	39%	1
TBL B. Hagel	2.1	1	0.91	0	30%	0
TBL V. Hedman	2.1	2	0.77	1	12%	0
FLA G. Forsling	2.0	4	0.43	0	12%	0
FLA A. Ekblad	1.8	1	0.45	1	12%	0
FLA A. Lundell	1.8	1	0.55	1	17%	0
FLA E. Rodrigues	1.7	1	0.44	0	16%	0
TBL N. Paul	1.5	3	0.49	1	21%	1
TBL A. Cirelli	1.5	0	0.58	0	21%	0
TBL M. Eyssimont	1.5	1	0.22	0	10%	0
TBL C. Atkinson	1.3	1	0.29	0	13%	0
FLA M. Samoskevich	1.3	1	0.31	0	14%	0
TBL D. Raddysh	1.2	1	0.34	2	6%	0
FLA N. Mikkola	1.2	3	0.23	0	6%	0
FLA E. Luostarinen	1.2	1	0.37	1	14%	1
TBL C. Geekie	1.1	1	0.32	0	14%	0
FLA U. Balinskis	1.1	1	0.19	0	4%	0
FLA R. Asplund	1.1	0	0.21	0	8%	0
TBL R. McDonagh	1.1	1	0.33	0	4%	0
TBL N. Perbix	1.0	1	0.30	0	5%	0
FLA D. Kulikov	1.0	1	0.23	0	5%	0
FLA A. Greer	1.0	1	0.21	1	9%	1
TBL Z. Girgensons	0.9	0	0.18	0	10%	0
FLA N. Schmidt	0.9	1	0.23	0	6%	0
TBL M. Chaffee	0.9	1	0.30	0	15%	0
TBL E. Lilleberg	0.9	0	0.23	0	2%	0
FLA T. Nosek	0.8	1	0.18	1	6%	0
TBL E. Cernak	0.8	1	0.20	0	3%	0
TBL L. Glendening	0.7	0	0.14	0	9%	0

Shots on goal: 29 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.