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Game Recap
FLA1
TBL5
TBL beat FLA 5-1, and the chances backed it up: 4.02 expected goals to 1.80. B. Point led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). A. Vasilevskiy stopped 23 of 24.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| TBL | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 |
- 1st 1:32TBLB. Point0.12 xG
- 1st 15:25TBLC. Geekie0.18 xG
- 1st 18:09TBLJ. GuentzelSH0.20 xG
- 2nd 4:42TBLN. Kucherov0.13 xG
- 2nd 5:36FLAB. Marchand0.19 xG
- 3rd 11:22TBLD. RaddyshPP0.19 xG
Team Stats
FLATBL
24Shots on goal31
1.80Expected goals4.02
44Shot attempts59
205v5 shots on goal21
0/4Power play1/5
37Hits26
10Blocked shots8
30Penalty minutes17
18Giveaways14
5Takeaways4
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
FLA 1.80 xGTBL 4.02 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
FLA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Marchand | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:09 | 4:03 |
| C. Verhaeghe | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:10 | 3:01 |
| E. Luostarinen | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:29 | 2:03 |
| S. Bennett | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17:14 | 4:14 |
| E. Rodrigues | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 16:57 | 4:14 |
| M. Samoskevich | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 16:06 | 3:55 |
| J. Boqvist | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 16:02 | 0:24 |
| N. Sturm | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 5 | 15:26 | 0:00 |
| J. Puljujarvi | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 13:45 | 2:22 |
| J. Gadjovich | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 10:58 | 0:33 |
| R. Asplund | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7:04 | 0:34 |
| M. Kiersted | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 10:00 | 0:00 |
| S. Jones | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 0 | 19:53 | 4:06 |
| U. Balinskis | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 19:46 | 3:10 |
| N. Schmidt | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 19:00 | 3:03 |
| D. Kulikov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:22 | 0:00 |
| N. Mikkola | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 0 | -2 | 4 | 15:06 | 0:03 |
| J. Megna | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 14:07 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| V. Vanecek | 31 | 26 | 5 | .839 | 60:00 | Loss |
| S. Bobrovsky | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
TBL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Point | C | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +3 | 0 | 15:03 | 6:04 |
| Y. Gourde | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 19:12 | 2:34 |
| N. Kucherov | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 15:12 | 6:17 |
| J. Guentzel | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:21 | 6:12 |
| C. Geekie | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 14:48 | 0:09 |
| A. Cirelli | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:38 | 2:24 |
| G. Goncalves | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 19:09 | 2:37 |
| N. Paul | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:37 | 2:29 |
| B. Hagel | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 4 | 16:24 | 4:40 |
| Z. Girgensons | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 15:36 | 0:00 |
| M. Chaffee | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:56 | 0:00 |
| V. Hedman | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 18:15 | 5:22 |
| J. Moser | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 19:29 | 0:00 |
| D. Raddysh | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 17:52 | 4:04 |
| E. Cernak | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 16:18 | 0:00 |
| R. McDonagh | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:45 | 0:01 |
| E. Lilleberg | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:52 | 0:00 |
| N. Perbix | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:37 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Vasilevskiy | 24 | 23 | 1 | .958 | 59:56 | Win |
| J. Johansson | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | FLA 2.9, TBL 3.3 | FLA 1, TBL 5 |
| Total goals | 6.2 | 6 |
| Shots on goal | FLA 30.0, TBL 26.5 | FLA 24, TBL 31 |
| Win chance | TBL 56% | TBL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA S. Bennett | 3.0 | 1 | 0.58 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| TBL N. Kucherov | 3.0 | 3 | 1.39 | 2 | 34% | 1 |
| FLA C. Verhaeghe | 2.7 | 0 | 0.58 | 1 | 26% | 0 |
| TBL J. Guentzel | 2.7 | 2 | 0.92 | 1 | 36% | 1 |
| TBL B. Point | 2.4 | 1 | 0.92 | 3 | 38% | 1 |
| TBL B. Hagel | 2.3 | 4 | 0.88 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| FLA B. Marchand | 2.3 | 2 | 0.60 | 1 | 23% | 1 |
| TBL V. Hedman | 2.2 | 3 | 0.78 | 2 | 13% | 0 |
| FLA M. Samoskevich | 2.1 | 3 | 0.43 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| FLA S. Jones | 2.1 | 3 | 0.41 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| FLA E. Rodrigues | 2.0 | 2 | 0.39 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| TBL A. Cirelli | 1.8 | 2 | 0.60 | 1 | 23% | 0 |
| TBL N. Paul | 1.7 | 2 | 0.46 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| FLA J. Puljujarvi | 1.6 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| TBL Y. Gourde | 1.5 | 2 | 0.49 | 2 | 16% | 0 |
| FLA N. Mikkola | 1.4 | 3 | 0.20 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| FLA J. Boqvist | 1.2 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| FLA U. Balinskis | 1.2 | 2 | 0.19 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| FLA J. Gadjovich | 1.1 | 1 | 0.13 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| FLA N. Schmidt | 1.1 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| FLA E. Luostarinen | 1.1 | 2 | 0.28 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| TBL G. Goncalves | 1.1 | 3 | 0.38 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| TBL C. Geekie | 1.1 | 1 | 0.25 | 1 | 13% | 1 |
| FLA N. Sturm | 1.0 | 2 | 0.19 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| TBL R. McDonagh | 1.0 | 1 | 0.35 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| TBL D. Raddysh | 1.0 | 1 | 0.29 | 1 | 4% | 1 |
| FLA R. Asplund | 0.9 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| TBL Z. Girgensons | 0.9 | 2 | 0.14 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| TBL M. Chaffee | 0.9 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| TBL E. Cernak | 0.9 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| TBL N. Perbix | 0.8 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| TBL J. Moser | 0.8 | 1 | 0.24 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| FLA D. Kulikov | 0.8 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| FLA J. Megna | 0.8 | 0 | 0.10 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| FLA M. Kiersted | 0.7 | 0 | 0.14 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| TBL E. Lilleberg | 0.7 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 29 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.