Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!
Game Recap
FLA6
TBL2
FLA beat TBL 6-2, and the chances backed it up: 2.72 expected goals to 1.89. M. Tkachuk led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). J. Guentzel had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.5. S. Bobrovsky stopped 20 of 22.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 2 | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| TBL | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
- 1st 3:44FLAS. Bennett0.07 xG
- 1st 12:21TBLJ. GuentzelPP0.22 xG
- 1st 19:15FLAS. Reinhart0.07 xG
- 2nd 4:41FLAN. Schmidt0.60 xG
- 2nd 4:55FLAM. TkachukPP0.19 xG
- 2nd 9:44FLAM. TkachukPP0.19 xG
- 2nd 13:04TBLB. Point0.11 xG
- 3rd 5:09FLAN. SchmidtPP0.03 xG
Team Stats
FLATBL
17Shots on goal22
2.72Expected goals1.89
34Shot attempts60
145v5 shots on goal18
3/3Power play1/3
48Hits28
18Blocked shots8
6Penalty minutes4
13Giveaways15
5Takeaways2
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
FLA 2.72 xGTBL 1.89 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
FLA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Tkachuk | LW | 2 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 11:43 | 2:09 |
| S. Reinhart | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 19:04 | 2:03 |
| A. Barkov | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 18:40 | 2:02 |
| S. Bennett | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 11:50 | 0:39 |
| B. Marchand | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:15 | 0:32 |
| C. Verhaeghe | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:17 | 0:38 |
| M. Samoskevich | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:35 | 1:36 |
| A. Lundell | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:29 | 0:00 |
| E. Luostarinen | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 16:32 | 0:00 |
| E. Rodrigues | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:49 | 0:38 |
| N. Sturm | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:44 | 0:00 |
| J. Boqvist | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 10:08 | 0:00 |
| N. Schmidt | D | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 15:51 | 0:57 |
| D. Kulikov | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20:00 | 0:00 |
| S. Jones | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 24:12 | 1:44 |
| G. Forsling | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 23:04 | 0:27 |
| N. Mikkola | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 19:56 | 0:00 |
| U. Balinskis | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 14:55 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Bobrovsky | 22 | 20 | 2 | .909 | 60:00 | Win |
| V. Vanecek | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
TBL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Kucherov | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 23:15 | 5:05 |
| B. Point | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 22:58 | 4:08 |
| G. Goncalves | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20:07 | 1:46 |
| J. Guentzel | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 18:20 | 4:11 |
| B. Hagel | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 19:25 | 4:05 |
| N. Paul | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:18 | 1:48 |
| Y. Gourde | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:52 | 1:45 |
| C. Geekie | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 14:05 | 0:20 |
| Z. Girgensons | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:54 | 0:00 |
| L. Glendening | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9:41 | 0:00 |
| A. Cirelli | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 6:21 | 0:31 |
| V. Hedman | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 21:58 | 4:01 |
| R. McDonagh | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:02 | 0:00 |
| E. Cernak | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17:08 | 0:00 |
| E. Lilleberg | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 16:16 | 0:00 |
| D. Raddysh | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:02 | 2:00 |
| J. Moser | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:41 | 0:00 |
| N. Perbix | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 11:10 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Vasilevskiy | 17 | 11 | 6 | .647 | 59:46 | Loss |
| J. Johansson | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | FLA 3.0, TBL 3.1 | FLA 6, TBL 2 |
| Total goals | 6.1 | 8 |
| Shots on goal | FLA 29.7, TBL 26.1 | FLA 17, TBL 22 |
| Win chance | TBL 53% | FLA won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA M. Tkachuk | 3.2 | 3 | 0.96 | 3 | 30% | 2 |
| FLA S. Bennett | 3.1 | 1 | 0.59 | 2 | 25% | 1 |
| FLA C. Verhaeghe | 2.8 | 2 | 0.63 | 1 | 27% | 0 |
| TBL N. Kucherov | 2.7 | 2 | 1.19 | 1 | 30% | 0 |
| FLA S. Reinhart | 2.5 | 3 | 0.75 | 2 | 33% | 1 |
| TBL J. Guentzel | 2.5 | 6 | 0.84 | 1 | 33% | 1 |
| FLA B. Marchand | 2.4 | 2 | 0.66 | 1 | 25% | 0 |
| FLA G. Forsling | 2.3 | 0 | 0.36 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| FLA M. Samoskevich | 2.2 | 0 | 0.44 | 1 | 19% | 0 |
| TBL B. Hagel | 2.2 | 1 | 0.77 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| FLA E. Rodrigues | 2.1 | 1 | 0.41 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| FLA A. Barkov | 2.1 | 0 | 0.80 | 2 | 24% | 0 |
| TBL B. Point | 2.1 | 2 | 0.81 | 1 | 34% | 1 |
| FLA S. Jones | 2.1 | 0 | 0.41 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| FLA A. Lundell | 2.0 | 1 | 0.49 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| TBL V. Hedman | 2.0 | 0 | 0.69 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| TBL N. Paul | 1.8 | 3 | 0.45 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| TBL A. Cirelli | 1.6 | 1 | 0.52 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| TBL Y. Gourde | 1.6 | 1 | 0.51 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| FLA N. Mikkola | 1.4 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| TBL G. Goncalves | 1.3 | 0 | 0.41 | 1 | 16% | 0 |
| FLA U. Balinskis | 1.3 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| FLA J. Boqvist | 1.3 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| TBL C. Geekie | 1.2 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| TBL D. Raddysh | 1.2 | 1 | 0.35 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| FLA E. Luostarinen | 1.2 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| FLA N. Schmidt | 1.2 | 3 | 0.24 | 2 | 6% | 2 |
| FLA N. Sturm | 1.2 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| TBL Z. Girgensons | 1.1 | 1 | 0.16 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| TBL R. McDonagh | 0.9 | 1 | 0.31 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| TBL N. Perbix | 0.9 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| TBL J. Moser | 0.9 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| FLA D. Kulikov | 0.8 | 1 | 0.16 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| TBL E. Cernak | 0.8 | 2 | 0.21 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| TBL E. Lilleberg | 0.7 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| TBL L. Glendening | 0.6 | 0 | 0.09 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 16 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.6 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.