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Game Recap
FLA6
TBL3
FLA beat TBL 6-3, and the chances backed it up: 3.55 expected goals to 2.51. E. Luostarinen led the way with 4 points (1 G, 3 A). S. Reinhart had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 2.6. S. Bobrovsky stopped 26 of 29.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 |
| TBL | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
- 1st 2:33TBLG. Goncalves0.28 xG
- 1st 5:21FLAC. VerhaeghePP0.66 xG
- 1st 10:06FLAA. Lundell0.14 xG
- 1st 12:16TBLN. Paul0.19 xG
- 2nd 0:52FLAA. Barkov0.09 xG
- 2nd 9:57TBLJ. GuentzelPP0.04 xG
- 2nd 15:13FLAS. Bennett0.09 xG
- 3rd 13:02FLAE. Luostarinen0.18 xG
- 3rd 15:36FLAS. ReinhartEN0.48 xG
Team Stats
FLATBL
31Shots on goal29
3.55Expected goals2.51
57Shot attempts58
235v5 shots on goal23
1/3Power play1/3
46Hits26
18Blocked shots14
8Penalty minutes8
12Giveaways17
5Takeaways4
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
FLA 3.55 xGTBL 2.51 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
FLA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E. Luostarinen | C | 1 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 1 | +4 | 0 | 16:28 | 0:00 |
| A. Lundell | C | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 17:58 | 0:00 |
| S. Reinhart | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 20:09 | 1:40 |
| B. Marchand | LW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 17:55 | 0:32 |
| A. Barkov | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 19:07 | 1:40 |
| C. Verhaeghe | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 17:27 | 1:40 |
| S. Bennett | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 2 | +1 | 4 | 16:59 | 0:32 |
| M. Tkachuk | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:33 | 1:40 |
| E. Rodrigues | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13:58 | 0:32 |
| N. Sturm | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 8:10 | 1:26 |
| J. Boqvist | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7:40 | 1:26 |
| A. Greer | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 6:59 | 1:26 |
| G. Forsling | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 5 | +2 | 0 | 25:52 | 0:32 |
| S. Jones | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 2 | 26:31 | 1:40 |
| D. Kulikov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 21:57 | 0:49 |
| N. Mikkola | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 20:58 | 0:50 |
| N. Schmidt | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 12:49 | 1:08 |
| U. Balinskis | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 11:11 | 0:37 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Bobrovsky | 29 | 26 | 3 | .897 | 60:00 | Win |
| V. Vanecek | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
TBL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Guentzel | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 2 | 24:21 | 3:54 |
| G. Goncalves | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:03 | 1:39 |
| N. Paul | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:38 | 1:30 |
| C. Geekie | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 12:58 | 0:00 |
| L. Glendening | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 8:59 | 0:00 |
| B. Point | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 23:48 | 3:49 |
| N. Kucherov | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 23:34 | 5:12 |
| A. Cirelli | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:39 | 3:40 |
| Y. Gourde | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 0 | 14:40 | 0:00 |
| M. Chaffee | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:42 | 1:25 |
| Z. Girgensons | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 8:27 | 0:00 |
| V. Hedman | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 26:37 | 4:03 |
| R. McDonagh | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 17:31 | 0:00 |
| E. Cernak | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 2 | 17:07 | 0:00 |
| D. Raddysh | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 16:07 | 1:16 |
| N. Perbix | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 14:54 | 0:00 |
| J. Moser | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:24 | 0:07 |
| E. Lilleberg | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 2 | 10:51 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Vasilevskiy | 30 | 25 | 5 | .833 | 57:02 | Loss |
| J. Johansson | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | FLA 2.9, TBL 3.0 | FLA 6, TBL 3 |
| Total goals | 5.9 | 9 |
| Shots on goal | FLA 28.5, TBL 24.7 | FLA 31, TBL 29 |
| Win chance | TBL 52% | FLA won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL N. Kucherov | 2.9 | 2 | 1.33 | 0 | 33% | 0 |
| FLA S. Bennett | 2.8 | 6 | 0.56 | 1 | 23% | 1 |
| FLA C. Verhaeghe | 2.7 | 3 | 0.62 | 1 | 27% | 1 |
| TBL J. Guentzel | 2.7 | 4 | 0.94 | 1 | 36% | 1 |
| FLA M. Tkachuk | 2.7 | 2 | 0.84 | 1 | 27% | 0 |
| FLA S. Reinhart | 2.6 | 7 | 0.82 | 2 | 35% | 1 |
| TBL B. Point | 2.3 | 2 | 0.90 | 0 | 37% | 0 |
| FLA G. Forsling | 2.2 | 0 | 0.35 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| TBL V. Hedman | 2.2 | 3 | 0.74 | 2 | 12% | 0 |
| FLA B. Marchand | 2.1 | 0 | 0.60 | 2 | 23% | 0 |
| FLA S. Jones | 2.1 | 2 | 0.43 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| FLA A. Barkov | 2.1 | 2 | 0.81 | 1 | 24% | 1 |
| FLA E. Rodrigues | 2.0 | 0 | 0.38 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| FLA A. Lundell | 1.9 | 3 | 0.46 | 3 | 16% | 1 |
| TBL N. Paul | 1.7 | 5 | 0.44 | 1 | 21% | 1 |
| TBL A. Cirelli | 1.5 | 2 | 0.51 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| TBL Y. Gourde | 1.3 | 0 | 0.44 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| FLA N. Mikkola | 1.2 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| FLA E. Luostarinen | 1.1 | 3 | 0.30 | 4 | 12% | 1 |
| TBL G. Goncalves | 1.1 | 4 | 0.42 | 1 | 15% | 1 |
| TBL D. Raddysh | 1.1 | 1 | 0.32 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| FLA U. Balinskis | 1.1 | 1 | 0.18 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| TBL C. Geekie | 1.1 | 1 | 0.25 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| TBL R. McDonagh | 1.0 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| FLA N. Schmidt | 1.0 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| FLA A. Greer | 1.0 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| TBL Z. Girgensons | 1.0 | 0 | 0.14 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| TBL E. Cernak | 1.0 | 3 | 0.22 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| FLA N. Sturm | 0.9 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| FLA J. Boqvist | 0.9 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| TBL M. Chaffee | 0.9 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| TBL J. Moser | 0.8 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| FLA D. Kulikov | 0.8 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| TBL N. Perbix | 0.8 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| TBL E. Lilleberg | 0.6 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| TBL L. Glendening | 0.6 | 0 | 0.10 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.