Game Recap: FLA 1, TOR 4, January 6, 2026

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Game Recap

FLA1

FinalTue, Jan 6, 2026Every game that night

TOR4

TOR beat FLA 4-1, and the chances backed it up: 4.06 expected goals to 2.54. FLA outshot TOR 32 to 23. M. Knies led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). S. Lorentz had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.0. J. Woll stopped 31 of 32.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
FLA	0	0	1	1
TOR	1	2	1	4

1st 19:36TORE. Cowan0.22 xG
2nd 0:42TORM. Knies0.09 xG
2nd 4:01TORA. Matthews0.20 xG
3rd 11:38FLAC. Verhaeghe0.03 xG
3rd 19:52TORB. McMannEN0.92 xG

Team Stats

FLATOR

32Shots on goal23

2.54Expected goals4.06

74Shot attempts47

215v5 shots on goal16

0/3Power play0/2

31Hits21

10Blocked shots18

9Penalty minutes11

12Giveaways14

8Takeaways2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

FLA 2.54 xGTOR 4.06 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

FLA31 on goal, 1 scored

TOR23 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

FLA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. Verhaeghe	C	1	1	2	2	0	0	0	20:02	1:49
S. Reinhart	C	0	0	3	2	0	-3	0	22:44	4:17
A. Lundell	C	0	0	3	2	0	-3	0	21:56	3:43
S. Bennett	C	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	21:15	3:33
E. Rodrigues	C	0	0	4	3	1	-2	2	20:05	4:09
E. Luostarinen	C	0	0	2	1	0	-2	0	16:59	1:42
M. Samoskevich	RW	0	0	3	5	0	-1	0	14:39	1:43
A. Greer	LW	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	14:04	0:00
B. Marchand	LW	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	11:41	1:35
J. Boqvist	C	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	9:43	0:00
L. Kunin	C	0	0	2	3	2	0	0	8:51	0:00
N. Gregor	LW	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	5:40	0:00
G. Forsling	D	0	0	3	0	2	-3	0	24:43	1:29
A. Ekblad	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	5	20:16	3:34
J. Petry	D	0	0	0	1	1	-1	0	19:14	2:23
N. Mikkola	D	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	18:51	0:03
U. Balinskis	D	0	0	1	1	2	-1	0	16:58	0:00
D. Sebrango	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	2	12:13	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Bobrovsky	22	19	3	.864	56:06	Loss
D. Tarasov	0	0	0	–	0:00

TOR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Knies	LW	1	1	2	1	0	0	+2	0	15:59	2:04
N. Roy	C	0	2	2	0	2	0	+2	0	14:51	1:50
A. Matthews	C	1	0	1	4	2	1	+1	0	19:48	2:01
B. McMann	C	1	0	1	2	3	1	0	0	19:14	1:53
J. Tavares	C	0	1	1	2	0	0	+1	0	14:57	1:59
M. Maccelli	LW	0	1	1	2	0	0	+2	0	12:45	2:09
N. Robertson	LW	0	1	1	1	1	1	+1	0	12:01	1:55
E. Cowan	RW	1	0	1	1	1	0	+1	2	11:15	0:08
S. Laughton	C	0	0	0	0	3	3	0	0	17:52	0:04
M. Domi	C	0	0	0	0	2	1	-1	5	14:25	1:43
S. Lorentz	C	0	0	0	4	1	1	0	0	14:05	0:02
C. Jarnkrok	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	10:16	0:00
T. Stecher	D	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	0	24:09	0:00
O. Ekman-Larsson	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	+1	0	23:09	2:01
M. Rielly	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	+2	2	19:50	2:11
S. Benoit	D	0	0	0	2	2	2	+1	0	18:00	0:00
B. Carlo	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	+2	0	17:41	0:00
P. Myers	D	0	0	0	2	2	2	0	2	13:43	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Woll	32	31	1	.969	60:00	Win
D. Hildeby	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

FLA

Line 1C. Verhaeghe14:46S. Bennett13:16B. Marchand9:55

Line 2S. Reinhart12:54E. Luostarinen13:51A. Lundell12:48

Line 3E. Rodrigues12:29M. Samoskevich12:27A. Greer13:33

Line 4L. Kunin7:13J. Boqvist9:16N. Gregor5:40

Pair 1G. Forsling17:45A. Ekblad14:08

Pair 2N. Mikkola16:52U. Balinskis16:58

Pair 3J. Petry14:26D. Sebrango12:13

TOR

Line 1A. Matthews15:21B. McMann15:04M. Domi12:42

Line 2J. Tavares11:21M. Knies12:18M. Maccelli10:36

Line 3N. Roy10:18N. Robertson10:06E. Cowan11:07

Line 4S. Laughton10:34S. Lorentz10:15C. Jarnkrok8:20

Pair 1O. Ekman-Larsson18:51T. Stecher17:07

Pair 2M. Rielly16:23B. Carlo13:12

Pair 3P. Myers13:01S. Benoit13:54

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamSergei Bobrovsky TOR First game against FLA since he left (his team until Apr 2026)19 saves on 22
HometownCarter Verhaeghe FLA Plays in his hometown1 G, 2 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	FLA 3.2, TOR 3.0	FLA 1, TOR 4
Total goals	6.2	5
Shots on goal	FLA 30.4, TOR 26.1	FLA 32, TOR 23
Win chance	FLA 52%	TOR won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
TOR A. Matthews	3.5	4	1.04	1	42%	1
FLA S. Bennett	3.1	2	0.81	0	30%	0
FLA S. Reinhart	2.9	3	1.03	0	39%	0
FLA B. Marchand	2.8	1	0.93	0	31%	0
TOR J. Tavares	2.3	2	0.82	1	31%	0
FLA A. Lundell	2.3	3	0.67	0	21%	0
FLA E. Rodrigues	2.3	4	0.55	0	19%	0
FLA C. Verhaeghe	2.2	2	0.64	1	24%	1
TOR B. McMann	2.1	2	0.51	1	24%	1
FLA M. Samoskevich	2.0	3	0.40	0	14%	0
TOR M. Rielly	1.9	0	0.69	0	11%	0
TOR M. Knies	1.8	1	0.70	2	25%	1
FLA A. Ekblad	1.7	0	0.55	0	13%	0
FLA E. Luostarinen	1.6	2	0.49	0	14%	0
TOR M. Domi	1.6	0	0.57	0	15%	0
TOR N. Robertson	1.5	1	0.41	1	19%	0
TOR O. Ekman-Larsson	1.5	0	0.48	0	8%	0
FLA G. Forsling	1.5	3	0.37	0	11%	0
TOR E. Cowan	1.4	1	0.36	1	14%	1
FLA A. Greer	1.4	2	0.30	0	12%	0
TOR M. Maccelli	1.3	2	0.54	1	17%	0
TOR S. Laughton	1.2	0	0.33	0	14%	0
TOR B. Carlo	1.2	0	0.17	0	4%	0
TOR T. Stecher	1.2	1	0.21	1	5%	0
FLA N. Mikkola	1.1	2	0.23	0	6%	0
TOR N. Roy	1.1	0	0.41	2	15%	0
TOR P. Myers	1.1	2	0.14	0	3%	0
FLA U. Balinskis	1.0	1	0.22	0	5%	0
TOR S. Lorentz	1.0	4	0.27	0	11%	0
FLA N. Gregor	0.9	1	0.14	0	7%	0
TOR C. Jarnkrok	0.9	1	0.26	0	13%	0
FLA J. Petry	0.9	0	0.24	0	4%	0
FLA L. Kunin	0.7	2	0.11	0	7%	0
FLA J. Boqvist	0.7	1	0.18	0	8%	0
TOR S. Benoit	0.7	2	0.12	0	2%	0
FLA D. Sebrango	0.6	0	0.15	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.