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Game Recap
FLA4
UTA3
FLA beat UTA 4-3, and the chances backed it up: 4.46 expected goals to 2.83. S. Bennett led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). B. Hayton had 8 shots on goal against our projection of 1.5. S. Bobrovsky stopped 27 of 30.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| UTA | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
- 1st 11:23UTAD. Guenther0.19 xG
- 1st 19:17FLAC. Verhaeghe0.31 xG
- 2nd 1:40FLAS. Bennett0.08 xG
- 2nd 3:24FLAS. Bennett0.23 xG
- 2nd 3:37UTAD. Guenther0.14 xG
- 2nd 14:37UTAJ. McBain0.17 xG
- 3rd 19:08FLAA. Lundell0.16 xG
Team Stats
FLAUTA
36Shots on goal30
4.46Expected goals2.83
81Shot attempts60
255v5 shots on goal25
0/2Power play0/3
21Hits19
15Blocked shots15
6Penalty minutes4
16Giveaways13
6Takeaways3
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
FLA 4.46 xGUTA 2.83 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
FLA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Bennett | C | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:52 | 2:02 |
| C. Verhaeghe | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:21 | 2:02 |
| S. Reinhart | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 20:59 | 2:00 |
| A. Lundell | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 19:58 | 1:48 |
| E. Luostarinen | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 19:13 | 2:07 |
| E. Rodrigues | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:19 | 1:48 |
| B. Marchand | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:55 | 1:43 |
| M. Samoskevich | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:26 | 1:48 |
| A. Greer | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13:12 | 0:00 |
| J. Boqvist | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:03 | 0:00 |
| N. Gregor | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6:44 | 0:00 |
| J. Studnicka | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6:44 | 0:00 |
| A. Ekblad | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 22:12 | 0:21 |
| N. Mikkola | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 19:31 | 0:00 |
| S. Jones | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 24:29 | 3:29 |
| G. Forsling | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 24:15 | 0:02 |
| U. Balinskis | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13:20 | 0:00 |
| J. Petry | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 12:27 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Bobrovsky | 30 | 27 | 3 | .900 | 60:00 | Win |
| D. Tarasov | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
UTA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Guenther | RW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 16:32 | 4:12 |
| L. Crouse | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:09 | 1:30 |
| J. McBain | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:39 | 0:09 |
| N. Schmaltz | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 21:20 | 4:36 |
| C. Keller | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 20:58 | 4:39 |
| J. Peterka | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 20:37 | 4:00 |
| K. Stenlund | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 15:33 | 0:14 |
| B. Hayton | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:59 | 1:26 |
| M. Carcone | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:01 | 1:11 |
| D. But | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 10:41 | 0:57 |
| L. O'Brien | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:22 | 0:00 |
| B. Tanev | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8:11 | 0:07 |
| J. Marino | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 22:02 | 0:02 |
| S. Durzi | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 20:15 | 1:29 |
| I. Cole | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:09 | 0:00 |
| M. Sergachev | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 25:58 | 4:21 |
| N. Schmidt | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 16:24 | 0:17 |
| M. Lamoureux | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 12:46 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Vejmelka | 36 | 32 | 4 | .889 | 59:24 | Loss |
| V. Vanecek | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
FLA
Line 1S. Reinhart14:54E. Luostarinen15:14A. Lundell14:43
Line 2C. Verhaeghe14:19S. Bennett14:51B. Marchand13:05
Line 3A. Greer13:02E. Rodrigues13:23M. Samoskevich13:28
Line 4N. Gregor6:44J. Studnicka6:44J. Boqvist8:03
Pair 1G. Forsling20:12A. Ekblad17:48
Pair 2S. Jones18:26N. Mikkola17:07
Pair 3J. Petry12:27U. Balinskis13:20
UTA
Line 1N. Schmaltz15:18C. Keller15:43J. Peterka16:01
Line 2L. Crouse13:31B. Hayton13:33D. Guenther11:44
Line 3M. Carcone11:50J. McBain11:38D. But9:44
Line 4L. O'Brien8:22K. Stenlund12:09B. Tanev8:04
Pair 1J. Marino19:12M. Sergachev19:51
Pair 2I. Cole16:57M. Lamoureux12:46
Pair 3S. Durzi18:08N. Schmidt13:19
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | FLA 2.9, UTA 2.9 | FLA 4, UTA 3 |
| Total goals | 5.8 | 7 |
| Shots on goal | FLA 26.5, UTA 27.6 | FLA 36, UTA 30 |
| Win chance | UTA 50% | FLA won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA S. Bennett | 2.7 | 4 | 0.73 | 3 | 29% | 2 |
| UTA D. Guenther | 2.6 | 3 | 0.70 | 2 | 26% | 2 |
| FLA B. Marchand | 2.6 | 4 | 0.92 | 0 | 32% | 0 |
| UTA C. Keller | 2.5 | 1 | 0.90 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| FLA S. Reinhart | 2.5 | 1 | 0.95 | 1 | 38% | 0 |
| FLA C. Verhaeghe | 2.5 | 4 | 0.80 | 2 | 29% | 1 |
| UTA J. Peterka | 2.2 | 1 | 0.76 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| FLA A. Lundell | 2.1 | 3 | 0.65 | 1 | 20% | 1 |
| UTA N. Schmaltz | 2.0 | 1 | 0.72 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| UTA M. Sergachev | 2.0 | 1 | 0.64 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| FLA E. Rodrigues | 1.9 | 1 | 0.47 | 1 | 18% | 0 |
| FLA S. Jones | 1.8 | 1 | 0.47 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| FLA M. Samoskevich | 1.8 | 6 | 0.39 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| UTA L. Crouse | 1.7 | 2 | 0.41 | 1 | 21% | 0 |
| UTA M. Carcone | 1.7 | 2 | 0.39 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| UTA S. Durzi | 1.6 | 2 | 0.43 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| FLA G. Forsling | 1.6 | 3 | 0.36 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| FLA A. Ekblad | 1.6 | 1 | 0.39 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| UTA B. Hayton | 1.5 | 8 | 0.37 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| FLA E. Luostarinen | 1.4 | 5 | 0.47 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| FLA A. Greer | 1.3 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| UTA N. Schmidt | 1.2 | 0 | 0.34 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| FLA N. Mikkola | 1.2 | 1 | 0.20 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| UTA J. McBain | 1.1 | 3 | 0.32 | 1 | 13% | 1 |
| UTA M. Lamoureux | 1.1 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| FLA U. Balinskis | 1.0 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| UTA L. O'Brien | 1.0 | 1 | 0.14 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| UTA K. Stenlund | 1.0 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| FLA J. Studnicka | 0.9 | 1 | 0.12 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| FLA J. Boqvist | 0.9 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| FLA N. Gregor | 0.9 | 0 | 0.14 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| UTA J. Marino | 0.9 | 0 | 0.35 | 2 | 4% | 0 |
| UTA I. Cole | 0.8 | 1 | 0.22 | 1 | 3% | 0 |
| FLA J. Petry | 0.8 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| UTA B. Tanev | 0.6 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 21 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.