Game Recap: FLA 0, VAN 4, December 12, 2024

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Game Recap

FLA0

FinalThu, Dec 12, 2024Every game that night

VAN4

VAN beat FLA 4-0 despite fewer good chances: 1.37 expected goals to 2.77. FLA outshot VAN 27 to 19. Q. Hughes led the way with 2 points (0 G, 2 A). E. Rodrigues had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.7. K. Lankinen stopped 27 of 27.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
FLA	0	0	0	0
VAN	2	1	1	4

1st 2:23VANC. Soucy0.07 xG
1st 18:41VAND. Heinen0.04 xG
2nd 4:53VANB. Boeser0.19 xG
3rd 12:55VANJ. DeBruskPP0.14 xG

Team Stats

FLAVAN

27Shots on goal19

2.77Expected goals1.37

61Shot attempts31

245v5 shots on goal17

0/2Power play1/1

25Hits26

7Blocked shots18

4Penalty minutes6

18Giveaways8

6Takeaways8

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

FLA 2.77 xGVAN 1.37 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

FLA27 on goal, 0 scored

VAN19 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

FLA Skaters

Player	Pos	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
S. Reinhart	C	1	1	1	0	2	20:28	3:06
A. Barkov	C	4	1	0	0	0	19:36	2:44
M. Tkachuk	LW	1	3	0	-2	0	19:19	3:38
C. Verhaeghe	C	1	2	0	0	0	18:27	2:49
S. Bennett	C	3	0	0	-2	0	18:01	1:16
E. Rodrigues	C	5	3	1	-2	0	17:36	0:54
A. Lundell	C	0	2	0	0	0	14:59	0:22
E. Luostarinen	C	2	1	0	0	0	13:19	0:00
J. Boqvist	C	1	0	0	0	2	12:38	0:00
M. Samoskevich	RW	0	4	2	-1	0	11:37	0:56
A. Greer	LW	0	2	0	-1	0	9:31	0:00
T. Nosek	LW	0	0	0	-1	0	7:58	0:00
D. Kulikov	D	1	3	1	0	0	21:32	0:00
N. Mikkola	D	3	1	0	0	0	20:51	0:00
G. Forsling	D	2	2	1	0	0	19:59	0:15
A. Ekblad	D	2	0	1	-1	0	19:54	2:28
N. Schmidt	D	0	0	0	-3	0	17:07	1:32
U. Balinskis	D	1	0	0	-2	0	15:01	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Bobrovsky	19	15	4	.789	60:00	Loss
S. Knight	0	0	0	–	0:00

VAN Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
T. Blueger	C	0	2	2	1	1	0	+2	0	16:10	0:00
J. Miller	C	0	2	2	0	1	0	+1	0	14:17	0:07
M. Sasson	C	0	2	2	2	0	4	+2	0	13:00	0:00
D. Heinen	LW	1	0	1	1	1	2	+2	0	16:46	0:00
B. Boeser	RW	1	0	1	1	0	0	+1	2	14:39	0:07
J. DeBrusk	LW	1	0	1	2	0	1	0	0	13:16	0:07
C. Garland	RW	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	16:49	0:00
P. Suter	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	15:15	0:00
K. Sherwood	LW	0	0	0	1	8	0	0	2	14:34	0:00
E. Pettersson	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	14:27	0:07
N. Hoglander	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	0	13:19	0:00
D. Joshua	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	10:58	0:00
Q. Hughes	D	0	2	2	2	0	0	+1	0	22:27	0:07
C. Soucy	D	1	0	1	1	2	0	+1	0	21:24	0:00
T. Myers	D	0	0	0	1	4	3	+1	0	22:44	0:00
N. Juulsen	D	0	0	0	1	4	4	+1	2	19:46	0:00
D. Forbort	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	+1	0	19:39	0:00
M. Friedman	D	0	0	0	2	2	1	+1	0	14:30	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
K. Lankinen	27	27	0	1.000	60:00	Win
T. Demko	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

HometownSam Reinhart FLA Plays near home (born in West Vancouver)1 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	FLA 3.2, VAN 2.9	FLA 0, VAN 4
Total goals	6.1	4
Shots on goal	FLA 29.7, VAN 25.3	FLA 27, VAN 19
Win chance	FLA 54%	VAN won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
FLA M. Tkachuk	3.0	1	1.08	0	30%	0
FLA C. Verhaeghe	2.9	1	0.83	0	31%	0
FLA S. Reinhart	2.6	1	0.98	0	37%	0
VAN Q. Hughes	2.6	2	1.01	2	13%	0
VAN C. Garland	2.5	2	0.78	0	26%	0
FLA A. Barkov	2.4	4	1.06	0	28%	0
VAN J. DeBrusk	2.3	2	0.69	1	30%	1
FLA S. Bennett	2.3	3	0.64	0	24%	0
VAN E. Pettersson	2.1	0	0.95	0	31%	0
VAN B. Boeser	2.0	1	0.76	1	29%	1
FLA G. Forsling	2.0	2	0.43	0	13%	0
VAN J. Miller	1.8	0	0.87	2	27%	0
VAN P. Suter	1.8	2	0.48	0	22%	0
FLA A. Ekblad	1.7	2	0.44	0	12%	0
FLA E. Rodrigues	1.7	5	0.47	0	17%	0
VAN K. Sherwood	1.7	1	0.45	0	19%	0
FLA A. Lundell	1.6	0	0.49	0	15%	0
FLA M. Samoskevich	1.3	0	0.29	0	13%	0
VAN T. Myers	1.2	1	0.30	0	4%	0
VAN C. Soucy	1.1	1	0.23	1	7%	1
VAN T. Blueger	1.1	1	0.34	2	10%	0
FLA N. Mikkola	1.1	3	0.22	0	5%	0
FLA E. Luostarinen	1.1	2	0.34	0	12%	0
VAN D. Heinen	1.0	1	0.34	1	15%	1
FLA U. Balinskis	1.0	1	0.19	0	3%	0
VAN N. Hoglander	1.0	0	0.27	0	14%	0
FLA N. Schmidt	1.0	0	0.24	0	6%	0
FLA A. Greer	1.0	0	0.20	0	8%	0
VAN M. Friedman	1.0	2	0.12	0	3%	0
FLA D. Kulikov	1.0	1	0.23	0	6%	0
FLA J. Boqvist	0.9	1	0.30	0	12%	0
VAN D. Joshua	0.9	0	0.40	0	18%	0
FLA T. Nosek	0.8	0	0.19	0	6%	0
VAN N. Juulsen	0.7	1	0.12	0	2%	0
VAN M. Sasson	0.7	2	0.24	2	8%	0
VAN D. Forbort	0.7	0	0.16	0	5%	0

Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.