Game Recap: FLA 3, VGK 2, November 10, 2025

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Game Recap

FLA3

FinalMon, Nov 10, 2025Every game that night

VGK2

FLA beat VGK 3-2 despite fewer good chances: 1.98 expected goals to 3.17. VGK outshot FLA 32 to 20. B. Marchand led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). T. Hertl had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.2. S. Bobrovsky stopped 30 of 32.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
FLA	1	1	1	3
VGK	0	0	2	2

1st 14:47FLAJ. Boqvist0.05 xG
2nd 10:54FLAB. Marchand0.10 xG
3rd 1:25VGKT. Hertl0.53 xG
3rd 4:54FLAS. ReinhartPP0.07 xG
3rd 9:04VGKI. Barbashev0.15 xG

Team Stats

FLAVGK

20Shots on goal32

1.98Expected goals3.17

51Shot attempts56

155v5 shots on goal27

1/3Power play0/3

21Hits22

13Blocked shots13

13Penalty minutes13

11Giveaways15

2Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

FLA 1.98 xGVGK 3.17 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

FLA20 on goal, 3 scored

VGK30 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

FLA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
B. Marchand	LW	1	1	2	1	0	0	+1	0	18:52	2:33
S. Reinhart	C	1	0	1	2	1	0	-2	0	19:04	2:55
J. Boqvist	C	1	0	1	1	2	0	+1	0	12:47	0:00
A. Lundell	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	+1	0	20:53	2:59
E. Rodrigues	C	0	0	0	4	0	1	-2	0	18:53	1:21
E. Luostarinen	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	+1	0	16:53	1:33
C. Verhaeghe	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	-2	0	15:56	2:58
M. Samoskevich	RW	0	0	0	1	3	2	+1	0	13:57	1:20
S. Bennett	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	0	13:26	1:20
A. Greer	LW	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	8:57	0:01
C. Schwindt	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	8:12	0:00
L. Kunin	C	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	8:01	0:00
D. Sebrango	D	0	2	2	0	2	1	+2	5	12:18	0:00
G. Forsling	D	0	1	1	0	0	1	0	0	24:14	0:02
S. Jones	D	0	1	1	0	0	2	-1	0	23:23	2:45
J. Petry	D	0	1	1	0	0	3	0	2	14:04	0:04
A. Ekblad	D	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	2	21:44	1:35
N. Mikkola	D	0	0	0	3	3	1	0	4	20:26	0:14

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Bobrovsky	32	30	2	.938	60:00	Win
D. Tarasov	0	0	0	–	0:00

VGK Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Marner	RW	0	1	1	2	0	1	+1	0	22:47	4:25
T. Hertl	C	1	0	1	5	3	1	+1	0	20:42	3:30
I. Barbashev	LW	1	0	1	3	0	1	0	0	16:48	0:00
J. Eichel	C	0	0	0	3	0	1	+1	0	22:30	4:04
P. Dorofeyev	RW	0	0	0	4	1	0	+1	0	20:11	3:28
B. Saad	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	0	15:49	0:00
B. Howden	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	2	14:53	0:52
R. Smith	RW	0	0	0	1	0	2	-1	0	12:05	0:20
K. Kolesar	RW	0	0	0	1	3	0	-2	0	11:57	0:00
C. Sissons	C	0	0	0	1	4	1	-1	0	9:57	0:00
A. Holtz	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	7:45	0:56
C. Reinhardt	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	5:41	0:05
S. Theodore	D	0	1	1	3	0	0	+2	0	23:48	2:42
B. McNabb	D	0	1	1	3	1	4	+1	0	20:28	0:00
N. Hanifin	D	0	0	0	4	0	1	0	0	23:35	1:43
K. Korczak	D	0	0	0	0	3	0	-1	0	17:32	0:00
Z. Whitecloud	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	2	14:49	0:00
J. Lauzon	D	0	0	0	1	4	1	-1	5	13:29	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Lindbom	20	17	3	.850	58:29	Loss
A. Schmid	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

FLA

Line 1S. Reinhart13:06E. Rodrigues14:20C. Verhaeghe12:58

Line 2E. Luostarinen12:23A. Lundell13:23B. Marchand13:05

Line 3S. Bennett12:06M. Samoskevich12:37J. Boqvist12:47

Line 4A. Greer8:56L. Kunin8:01C. Schwindt8:02

Pair 1S. Jones17:53N. Mikkola18:27

Pair 2G. Forsling17:14A. Ekblad15:28

Pair 3J. Petry13:51D. Sebrango11:58

VGK

Line 1T. Hertl15:32P. Dorofeyev15:04B. Saad13:45

Line 2I. Barbashev15:25J. Eichel13:35M. Marner13:36

Line 3R. Smith11:08B. Howden12:33K. Kolesar11:20

Line 4C. Sissons7:51C. Reinhardt5:36A. Holtz6:49

Pair 1N. Hanifin18:24K. Korczak15:34

Pair 2B. McNabb17:22S. Theodore18:09

Pair 3Z. Whitecloud14:12J. Lauzon10:40

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamAkira Schmid FLA First game back in Las Vegas, his team until Mar 20260 saves on 0

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	FLA 2.7, VGK 2.9	FLA 3, VGK 2
Total goals	5.7	5
Shots on goal	FLA 26.3, VGK 27.3	FLA 20, VGK 32
Win chance	VGK 54%	FLA won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
VGK J. Eichel	3.0	3	1.03	0	30%	0
VGK P. Dorofeyev	2.9	4	0.64	0	33%	0
FLA S. Reinhart	2.8	2	0.89	1	37%	1
FLA C. Verhaeghe	2.5	1	0.68	0	27%	0
FLA B. Marchand	2.4	1	0.80	2	29%	1
FLA S. Bennett	2.3	1	0.56	0	24%	0
VGK T. Hertl	2.2	5	0.71	1	27%	1
FLA A. Lundell	2.1	3	0.68	0	21%	0
VGK S. Theodore	2.1	3	0.67	1	9%	0
VGK N. Hanifin	2.0	4	0.46	0	9%	0
FLA E. Rodrigues	2.0	4	0.46	0	17%	0
FLA M. Samoskevich	1.9	1	0.44	0	16%	0
VGK M. Marner	1.8	2	1.15	1	29%	0
VGK B. Saad	1.6	0	0.38	0	18%	0
FLA S. Jones	1.5	0	0.41	1	10%	0
FLA G. Forsling	1.5	0	0.30	1	8%	0
FLA A. Ekblad	1.5	1	0.39	0	9%	0
FLA E. Luostarinen	1.4	1	0.45	0	14%	0
VGK I. Barbashev	1.4	3	0.60	1	21%	1
VGK R. Smith	1.3	1	0.39	0	15%	0
VGK A. Holtz	1.3	0	0.23	0	12%	0
VGK B. Howden	1.2	1	0.39	0	19%	0
VGK K. Korczak	1.1	0	0.24	0	3%	0
VGK B. McNabb	1.0	3	0.24	1	4%	0
FLA N. Mikkola	1.0	3	0.18	0	4%	0
VGK J. Lauzon	0.9	1	0.13	0	3%	0
FLA J. Boqvist	0.9	1	0.24	1	11%	1
FLA L. Kunin	0.9	0	0.15	0	9%	0
VGK Z. Whitecloud	0.9	0	0.18	0	5%	0
FLA A. Greer	0.8	1	0.19	0	9%	0
VGK C. Sissons	0.7	1	0.19	0	8%	0
FLA D. Sebrango	0.7	0	0.09	2	3%	0
FLA C. Schwindt	0.7	0	0.16	0	6%	0
VGK K. Kolesar	0.7	1	0.21	0	8%	0
FLA J. Petry	0.7	0	0.19	1	3%	0
VGK C. Reinhardt	0.6	0	0.16	0	8%	0

Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.