WSH beat FLA 6-3 despite fewer good chances: 2.42 expected goals to 3.74. N. Dowd led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). S. Bennett had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 2.7. L. Thompson stopped 30 of 33.
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
FLA 3.74 xGWSH 2.42 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
FLA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Bennett | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 17:42 | 1:05 |
| S. Reinhart | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 0 | 21:36 | 0:55 |
| A. Barkov | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 21:07 | 0:55 |
| C. Verhaeghe | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 20:13 | 0:55 |
| M. Tkachuk | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 15:55 | 0:55 |
| J. Boqvist | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:45 | 0:00 |
| A. Lundell | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 17:41 | 1:05 |
| E. Luostarinen | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 16:11 | 1:05 |
| E. Rodrigues | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 0 | -3 | 2 | 15:24 | 1:05 |
| T. Nosek | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7:17 | 0:00 |
| A. Greer | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6:28 | 0:00 |
| J. Gadjovich | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6:22 | 0:00 |
| N. Schmidt | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:51 | 1:04 |
| A. Ekblad | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 2 | 25:26 | 0:56 |
| G. Forsling | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 23:52 | 0:00 |
| N. Mikkola | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 20:37 | 0:00 |
| D. Kulikov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 17:57 | 0:00 |
| U. Balinskis | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 12:34 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Bobrovsky | 24 | 20 | 4 | .833 | 58:02 | Loss |
| S. Knight | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
WSH Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Dowd | C | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 16:35 | 0:00 |
| A. Protas | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 17:22 | 2:41 |
| A. Mangiapane | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 13:01 | 0:00 |
| A. Ovechkin | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 20:23 | 5:56 |
| T. Wilson | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 18:45 | 3:06 |
| D. Strome | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 17:51 | 3:14 |
| L. Eller | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 10:53 | 0:00 |
| P. Dubois | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:25 | 3:56 |
| C. McMichael | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:45 | 2:07 |
| B. Duhaime | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:54 | 0:00 |
| E. Frank | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 11:54 | 2:48 |
| T. Raddysh | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:14 | 0:00 |
| J. Carlson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 23:14 | 2:51 |
| M. Fehérváry | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | +3 | 0 | 19:55 | 0:00 |
| R. Sandin | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 17:06 | 0:04 |
| J. Chychrun | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 20:05 | 3:05 |
| M. Roy | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 19:57 | 0:08 |
| T. van Riemsdyk | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 14:37 | 0:04 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Thompson | 33 | 30 | 3 | .909 | 59:04 | Win |
| C. Lindgren | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | FLA 2.8, WSH 2.7 | FLA 3, WSH 6 |
| Total goals | 5.6 | 9 |
| Shots on goal | FLA 30.2, WSH 26.3 | FLA 33, WSH 26 |
| Win chance | FLA 52% | WSH won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH A. Ovechkin | 3.0 | 3 | 0.77 | 1 | 34% | 1 |
| FLA M. Tkachuk | 2.8 | 2 | 0.90 | 1 | 28% | 1 |
| FLA S. Bennett | 2.7 | 7 | 0.51 | 2 | 22% | 1 |
| FLA C. Verhaeghe | 2.6 | 1 | 0.66 | 1 | 27% | 0 |
| WSH J. Chychrun | 2.4 | 0 | 0.54 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| FLA S. Reinhart | 2.4 | 4 | 0.78 | 1 | 34% | 0 |
| FLA A. Barkov | 2.2 | 3 | 0.83 | 1 | 24% | 1 |
| FLA G. Forsling | 2.2 | 1 | 0.35 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| WSH T. Wilson | 2.1 | 2 | 0.58 | 1 | 26% | 1 |
| WSH J. Carlson | 2.0 | 5 | 0.59 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| FLA A. Ekblad | 1.9 | 2 | 0.40 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| WSH A. Protas | 1.8 | 1 | 0.58 | 2 | 19% | 1 |
| WSH C. McMichael | 1.8 | 1 | 0.49 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| WSH D. Strome | 1.8 | 0 | 0.74 | 1 | 24% | 0 |
| FLA A. Lundell | 1.7 | 1 | 0.48 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| FLA E. Rodrigues | 1.7 | 4 | 0.39 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| WSH P. Dubois | 1.7 | 1 | 0.61 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| FLA N. Mikkola | 1.4 | 2 | 0.22 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| WSH M. Roy | 1.3 | 1 | 0.31 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| WSH B. Duhaime | 1.3 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| WSH A. Mangiapane | 1.2 | 2 | 0.37 | 2 | 17% | 1 |
| FLA N. Schmidt | 1.2 | 0 | 0.23 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| FLA U. Balinskis | 1.1 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| FLA E. Luostarinen | 1.1 | 1 | 0.31 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| WSH E. Frank | 1.1 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| WSH L. Eller | 1.1 | 3 | 0.25 | 1 | 11% | 1 |
| FLA J. Boqvist | 1.1 | 1 | 0.31 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| WSH N. Dowd | 1.1 | 1 | 0.35 | 3 | 17% | 1 |
| WSH R. Sandin | 1.0 | 2 | 0.34 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| WSH T. Riemsdyk | 1.0 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| FLA D. Kulikov | 1.0 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| FLA A. Greer | 1.0 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| WSH M. Fehérváry | 1.0 | 2 | 0.22 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| WSH T. Raddysh | 0.9 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| FLA T. Nosek | 0.9 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| FLA J. Gadjovich | 0.8 | 2 | 0.12 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.