Game Recap: FLA 3, WSH 6, March 22, 2025

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Game Recap

FLA3

FinalSat, Mar 22, 2025Every game that night

WSH6

WSH beat FLA 6-3 despite fewer good chances: 2.87 expected goals to 3.40. S. Bennett led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). A. Ovechkin had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.8. L. Thompson stopped 33 of 36.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
FLA	3	0	0	3
WSH	3	3	0	6

1st 3:15WSHC. McMichael0.23 xG
1st 6:35FLAS. Bennett0.25 xG
1st 12:24WSHJ. Carlson0.10 xG
1st 13:56FLAS. Jones0.01 xG
1st 14:56WSHA. Beauvillier0.22 xG
1st 15:27FLAJ. Gadjovich0.28 xG
2nd 0:07WSHT. Wilson0.14 xG
2nd 0:59WSHD. Strome0.15 xG
2nd 5:57WSHA. Mangiapane0.10 xG

Team Stats

FLAWSH

36Shots on goal33

3.40Expected goals2.87

72Shot attempts59

295v5 shots on goal26

0/3Power play0/2

43Hits22

12Blocked shots20

6Penalty minutes8

17Giveaways8

9Takeaways9

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

FLA 3.40 xGWSH 2.87 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

FLA35 on goal, 3 scored

WSH33 on goal, 6 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

FLA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
S. Bennett	C	1	1	2	4	3	0	0	0	19:13	4:31
M. Samoskevich	RW	0	1	1	3	1	0	+1	0	16:38	4:28
E. Rodrigues	C	0	1	1	4	3	0	+1	0	16:26	1:32
N. Sturm	C	0	1	1	1	4	0	0	0	12:31	0:00
J. Gadjovich	LW	1	0	1	1	5	2	0	2	10:57	0:00
A. Barkov	C	0	0	0	3	3	0	-1	0	18:47	4:28
S. Reinhart	C	0	0	0	3	5	0	-2	0	18:03	4:30
C. Verhaeghe	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	-3	0	17:21	1:30
A. Lundell	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	-2	0	14:01	1:32
E. Luostarinen	C	0	0	0	2	1	1	-2	0	13:47	1:06
J. Boqvist	C	0	0	0	1	5	1	-2	0	12:14	0:00
A. Greer	LW	0	0	0	2	3	3	+1	0	11:42	0:00
S. Jones	D	1	0	1	2	2	1	0	0	24:45	4:28
G. Forsling	D	0	1	1	3	2	0	-1	2	20:30	0:00
N. Schmidt	D	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	18:35	1:32
N. Mikkola	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-2	2	18:30	0:00
U. Balinskis	D	0	0	0	1	2	2	0	0	16:37	0:23
T. Bjornfot	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	-3	0	15:23	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
V. Vanecek	33	27	6	.818	60:00	Loss
S. Bobrovsky	0	0	0	–	0:00

WSH Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Ovechkin	LW	0	2	2	6	0	0	0	0	20:04	3:59
T. Wilson	RW	1	1	2	1	6	2	+2	0	17:19	2:08
C. McMichael	LW	1	1	2	2	0	1	+3	0	15:39	1:40
P. Dubois	C	0	1	1	1	2	0	+4	2	18:05	1:55
D. Strome	C	1	0	1	1	2	0	-1	0	17:57	2:20
A. Protas	LW	0	1	1	2	0	1	-1	0	15:48	0:00
A. Mangiapane	LW	1	0	1	3	2	0	0	0	11:52	2:12
A. Beauvillier	RW	1	0	1	4	3	0	+1	0	11:45	0:00
N. Dowd	C	0	0	0	1	2	2	+1	0	13:28	0:00
B. Duhaime	LW	0	0	0	0	1	2	+1	0	12:29	0:00
L. Eller	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	12:16	0:00
T. Raddysh	RW	0	0	0	2	0	1	+1	0	11:37	1:45
M. Fehérváry	D	0	2	2	0	1	0	-1	0	18:32	0:01
J. Carlson	D	1	0	1	2	0	5	+2	0	23:03	2:18
R. Sandin	D	0	1	1	3	2	1	+4	0	20:55	0:51
T. van Riemsdyk	D	0	1	1	0	0	3	+1	0	19:10	0:00
M. Roy	D	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	18:05	0:02
J. Chychrun	D	0	0	0	4	0	2	0	6	16:25	0:49

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
L. Thompson	36	33	3	.917	59:31	Win
C. Lindgren	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamLars Eller FLA Faces WSH, his team until May 20250 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	FLA 3.0, WSH 2.9	FLA 3, WSH 6
Total goals	5.9	9
Shots on goal	FLA 29.2, WSH 25.7	FLA 36, WSH 33
Win chance	FLA 51%	WSH won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
FLA S. Bennett	2.8	4	0.59	2	24%	1
WSH A. Ovechkin	2.8	6	0.73	2	33%	0
FLA S. Reinhart	2.5	3	0.87	0	36%	0
FLA C. Verhaeghe	2.5	3	0.64	0	27%	0
WSH J. Chychrun	2.2	4	0.49	0	14%	0
FLA M. Samoskevich	2.1	3	0.46	1	20%	0
FLA A. Barkov	2.1	3	0.89	0	26%	0
FLA S. Jones	2.0	2	0.45	1	11%	1
FLA G. Forsling	2.0	3	0.36	1	12%	0
WSH T. Wilson	1.8	1	0.58	2	26%	1
WSH J. Carlson	1.8	2	0.54	1	9%	1
FLA E. Rodrigues	1.8	4	0.37	1	16%	0
WSH C. McMichael	1.7	2	0.47	2	20%	1
WSH A. Beauvillier	1.6	4	0.30	1	14%	1
WSH A. Protas	1.6	2	0.58	1	19%	0
WSH P. Dubois	1.6	1	0.62	1	21%	0
WSH D. Strome	1.5	1	0.70	1	23%	1
FLA A. Lundell	1.5	1	0.46	0	15%	0
FLA N. Mikkola	1.3	0	0.22	0	5%	0
WSH M. Roy	1.2	1	0.31	1	5%	0
WSH L. Eller	1.1	0	0.25	0	12%	0
WSH T. Raddysh	1.1	2	0.27	0	11%	0
FLA J. Boqvist	1.1	1	0.31	0	14%	0
WSH A. Mangiapane	1.0	3	0.33	1	15%	1
FLA E. Luostarinen	1.0	2	0.29	0	12%	0
WSH R. Sandin	1.0	3	0.33	1	6%	0
FLA U. Balinskis	0.9	1	0.16	0	5%	0
WSH B. Duhaime	0.9	0	0.21	0	10%	0
WSH N. Dowd	0.9	1	0.32	0	16%	0
WSH M. Fehérváry	0.9	0	0.25	2	6%	0
WSH T. Riemsdyk	0.9	0	0.22	1	3%	0
FLA N. Sturm	0.9	1	0.20	1	9%	0
FLA N. Schmidt	0.8	2	0.21	0	5%	0
FLA A. Greer	0.8	2	0.19	0	8%	0
FLA J. Gadjovich	0.7	1	0.10	1	6%	1
FLA T. Bjornfot	0.6	0	0.08	0	1%	0

Shots on goal: 25 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.