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Game Recap
FLA3
FinalSat, Nov 7, 2026Every game that night
WSH4

WSH beat FLA 4-3, with the chances close: 4.12 expected goals to 3.56. M. Tkachuk led the way with 3 points (0 G, 3 A). B. Tkachuk had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 3.2. L. Thompson stopped 27 of 30.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
FLA2013
WSH1214
  1. 1st 2:21WSHJ. St. Ivany0.00 xG
  2. 1st 3:13FLAB. Tkachuk0.11 xG
  3. 1st 10:00FLAB. TkachukPP0.25 xG
  4. 2nd 4:39WSHA. Tuch0.11 xG
  5. 2nd 14:55WSHA. Protas0.14 xG
  6. 3rd 4:42WSHP. Dubois0.18 xG
  7. 3rd 19:13FLAS. Bennett0.11 xG

Team Stats

FLAWSH
30Shots on goal31
3.56Expected goals4.12
57Shot attempts60
145v5 shots on goal23
1/5Power play0/3
31Hits8
13Blocked shots15
8Penalty minutes23
17Giveaways19
7Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

FLA 3.56 xGWSH 4.12 xGGoal

012341st2nd3rdWSH goal, 2:21FLA goal, 3:13FLA goal, 10:00WSH goal, 4:39WSH goal, 14:55WSH goal, 4:42FLA goal, 19:13

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

FLA30 on goal, 3 scored
WSH29 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

FLA Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
M. TkachukLW033320+1223:558:05
B. TkachukLW202720+1021:298:11
S. ReinhartC011200-2224:458:12
S. BennettC1014310018:432:31
C. VerhaegheC000231-1221:227:28
E. LuostarinenC0001120016:381:46
L. EllerC0001000016:111:58
C. ReinhardtLW0003400012:590:00
G. HathawayRW0000620010:080:04
C. SchwindtRW000020-108:240:04
B. ImamaLW000131-105:130:04
S. VilmanisLW000001-102:070:00
S. JonesD0111210026:318:06
A. EkbladD000313-1022:162:52
G. ForslingD000111-1019:130:21
N. MikkolaD000000-1017:430:04
U. BalinskisD000100-1213:222:14
D. KulikovD000010-1012:020:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
A. Schmid31274.87158:59Loss
J. Markstrom000–0:00

WSH Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
A. ProtasLW112210+3015:440:00
P. DuboisC112300+3015:151:52
A. TuchRW101301-1024:012:16
R. LeonardRW011301+2014:321:43
D. StromeC000301-1017:593:33
J. KyrouRW000100-1016:383:36
J. SourdifC0001010016:102:23
B. JennerC0004000014:420:00
A. OvechkinLW0003000014:163:48
A. BeauvillierRW000010-1013:500:00
I. ProtasLW000100+106:241:36
T. WilsonRW000000+1152:130:39
J. St. IvanyD101213+1013:500:00
M. RoyD000120+1224:380:06
M. FehérváryD000023-1222:350:00
J. ChychrunD000202+2021:573:03
C. HutsonD000211+1416:192:25
T. LiljegrenD0000020015:570:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
L. Thompson30273.90060:00Win
C. Lindgren000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

FLA

Line 1C. Verhaeghe12:01S. Reinhart12:18M. Tkachuk14:42
Line 2E. Luostarinen12:18C. Reinhardt12:56L. Eller10:38
Line 3S. Bennett13:11B. Tkachuk11:15
Line 4G. Hathaway8:02B. Imama5:09C. Schwindt7:54
Pair 1A. Ekblad14:58G. Forsling14:38
Pair 2S. Jones13:57N. Mikkola13:46
Pair 3D. Kulikov11:57U. Balinskis11:08

WSH

Line 1D. Strome13:23J. Kyrou12:58A. Tuch13:30
Line 2P. Dubois11:54A. Protas10:48R. Leonard12:29
Line 3A. Ovechkin10:21A. Beauvillier11:29J. Sourdif10:27
Line 4B. Jenner7:30I. Protas4:48
Pair 1M. Roy17:19J. Chychrun14:01
Pair 2J. Ivany13:20C. Hutson12:36
Pair 3M. Fehérváry14:38T. Liljegren9:50

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

12 of 21 overs hit (57%).

PlayerLineOverUnderSOGResult
WSH A. Ovechkin2.5+140-1703Over
WSH A. Tuch2.5+130-1603Over
FLA B. Tkachuk2.5-170+1357Over
FLA C. Verhaeghe2.5-105-1102Under
WSH J. Chychrun2.5+105-1152Under
WSH J. Kyrou2.5+146-1851Under
FLA M. Tkachuk2.5+100-1253Over
FLA S. Bennett2.5+125-1524Over
FLA S. Reinhart2.5-120-1052Under
FLA A. Ekblad1.5+100–3Over
WSH A. Protas1.5+110-1202Over
WSH B. Jenner1.5+100–4Over
WSH C. Hutson1.5-105-1152Over
WSH D. Strome1.5-150+1303Over
FLA E. Luostarinen1.5+125–1Under
FLA G. Forsling1.5-115–1Under
FLA L. Eller1.5+100–1Under
WSH P. Dubois1.5+125–3Over
WSH R. Leonard1.5-160+1483Over
FLA S. Jones1.5-135+1091Under
WSH T. Wilson1.5-140+1250Under

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

Storylines That Played Out

  • Old teamLars Eller FLA Faces WSH, his team until May 20251 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreFLA 3.1, WSH 3.3FLA 3, WSH 4
Total goals6.37
Shots on goalFLA 27.0, WSH 26.3FLA 30, WSH 31
Win chanceWSH 54%WSH won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
FLA B. Tkachuk3.270.79230%2
WSH J. Chychrun2.820.72021%0
FLA S. Reinhart2.520.87135%0
WSH A. Tuch2.430.82133%1
FLA C. Verhaeghe2.420.77029%0
FLA M. Tkachuk2.430.95327%0
FLA S. Bennett2.340.61125%1
WSH J. Kyrou2.210.78030%0
WSH A. Ovechkin2.230.70030%0
WSH R. Leonard1.930.56122%0
WSH T. Wilson1.800.72028%0
WSH C. Hutson1.820.59016%0
WSH B. Jenner1.740.49022%0
FLA S. Jones1.710.52111%0
WSH D. Strome1.730.81025%0
WSH A. Protas1.620.61222%1
WSH P. Dubois1.530.65220%1
FLA L. Eller1.410.37014%0
FLA S. Vilmanis1.400.42016%0
FLA E. Luostarinen1.410.43015%0
FLA G. Forsling1.410.2807%0
FLA A. Ekblad1.330.3708%0
WSH A. Beauvillier1.200.29013%0
WSH M. Roy1.210.3005%0
WSH J. Sourdif1.110.40016%0
FLA U. Balinskis1.010.2006%0
FLA N. Mikkola1.000.1905%0
WSH I. Protas0.910.40012%0
WSH M. Fehérváry0.900.3506%0
WSH T. Liljegren0.900.2104%0
FLA C. Schwindt0.700.1808%0
WSH J. Ivany0.720.2313%1
FLA G. Hathaway0.700.1508%0
FLA D. Kulikov0.700.1403%0
FLA B. Imama0.610.0604%0

Shots on goal: 23 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.