Game Recap: LAK 1, ANA 2 (OT), January 17, 2026

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Game Recap

LAK1

Final/OTSat, Jan 17, 2026Every game that night

ANA2

ANA beat LAK 2-1 in overtime, and the chances backed it up: 3.31 expected goals to 2.40. ANA outshot LAK 33 to 18. J. Trouba had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.7. V. Husso stopped 17 of 18.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
LAK	0	1	0	0	1
ANA	1	0	0	1	2

1st 6:11ANAM. McTavish0.14 xG
2nd 5:39LAKA. KempePP0.21 xG
OT 4:02ANAM. Granlund0.25 xG

Team Stats

LAKANA

18Shots on goal33

2.40Expected goals3.31

60Shot attempts59

105v5 shots on goal24

1/6Power play0/3

21Hits30

9Blocked shots22

11Penalty minutes17

12Giveaways10

8Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

LAK 2.40 xGANA 3.31 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

LAK18 on goal, 1 scored

ANA33 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

LAK Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
K. Fiala	LW	0	1	1	4	1	0	-1	2	24:58	7:18
A. Kempe	RW	1	0	1	2	1	0	-1	0	20:14	7:17
A. Kuzmenko	LW	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	14:20	7:20
Q. Byfield	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	25:21	7:12
A. Laferriere	RW	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	0	22:32	3:54
J. Armia	RW	0	0	0	0	2	2	-1	0	18:29	0:00
W. Foegele	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	17:18	2:49
A. Turcotte	C	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	2	12:50	2:44
T. Ward	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	12:41	2:47
A. Lee	LW	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	0	11:08	0:00
J. Malott	LW	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	7:08	0:01
S. Helenius	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	5	6:30	0:04
B. Clarke	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	23:27	6:18
M. Anderson	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	-1	0	22:55	0:12
D. Doughty	D	0	0	0	2	3	0	-2	2	22:48	2:39
J. Edmundson	D	0	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	17:44	0:00
C. Ceci	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	14:56	0:00
B. Dumoulin	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	13:53	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Forsberg	33	31	2	.939	63:34	OT loss
D. Kuemper	0	0	0	–	0:00

ANA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Granlund	C	1	0	1	3	2	2	+1	0	24:32	4:24
B. Sennecke	RW	0	1	1	4	0	0	+1	0	20:47	4:26
M. McTavish	C	1	0	1	4	3	1	+1	0	18:32	4:24
R. Strome	C	0	1	1	0	0	0	+1	0	14:58	1:34
A. Killorn	LW	0	0	0	5	2	0	0	0	20:37	1:38
C. Gauthier	LW	0	0	0	4	2	2	+1	2	16:43	3:28
R. Poehling	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	16:23	0:00
J. Harkins	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	12:17	1:08
T. Washe	C	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	11:48	0:11
J. Viel	LW	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	5	7:48	0:00
R. Johnston	LW	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	2	7:36	0:00
O. Zellweger	D	0	1	1	1	1	2	+1	0	19:25	0:00
J. Trouba	D	0	0	0	5	1	4	0	2	24:28	1:36
J. LaCombe	D	0	0	0	4	1	0	+1	0	22:20	3:43
P. Mintyukov	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	22:15	1:28
R. Gudas	D	0	0	0	0	6	3	+1	4	17:52	0:00
D. Helleson	D	0	0	0	0	2	2	0	2	15:51	0:00
I. Moore	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	9:14	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
V. Husso	18	17	1	.944	64:02	Win
L. Dostal	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

LAK

Line 1J. Armia15:38Q. Byfield14:31W. Foegele12:46

Line 2A. Kempe11:39A. Laferriere14:43T. Ward9:54

Line 3K. Fiala15:19A. Turcotte10:06A. Kuzmenko7:00

Line 4A. Lee11:08S. Helenius6:26J. Malott7:07

Pair 1D. Doughty17:24M. Anderson18:27

Pair 2B. Clarke15:55J. Edmundson13:41

Pair 3B. Dumoulin13:25C. Ceci11:56

ANA

Line 1A. Killorn14:50M. Granlund14:55B. Sennecke15:40

Line 2M. McTavish13:40C. Gauthier12:47R. Strome12:18

Line 3J. Harkins11:09R. Poehling10:39J. Viel7:48

Line 4R. Johnston7:36T. Washe7:00

Pair 1J. Trouba17:27J. LaCombe16:02

Pair 2R. Gudas14:23O. Zellweger14:49

Pair 3P. Mintyukov14:26D. Helleson14:26

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	LAK 3.2, ANA 3.0	LAK 1, ANA 2
Total goals	6.2	3
Shots on goal	LAK 27.9, ANA 28.6	LAK 18, ANA 33
Win chance	LAK 52%	ANA won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
LAK K. Fiala	3.1	4	0.92	1	35%	0
LAK A. Kempe	2.9	2	0.95	1	35%	1
LAK A. Laferriere	2.7	2	0.59	0	24%	0
ANA C. Gauthier	2.7	4	0.60	0	23%	0
ANA B. Sennecke	2.4	4	0.82	1	26%	0
LAK Q. Byfield	2.3	2	0.76	0	24%	0
LAK W. Foegele	2.2	0	0.48	0	22%	0
LAK B. Clarke	2.2	0	0.60	0	12%	0
ANA M. Granlund	2.1	3	0.74	1	20%	1
ANA M. McTavish	2.1	4	0.59	1	22%	1
ANA A. Killorn	1.8	5	0.44	0	20%	0
ANA J. Trouba	1.7	5	0.31	0	7%	0
LAK D. Doughty	1.7	2	0.58	0	13%	0
ANA J. LaCombe	1.6	4	0.48	0	9%	0
LAK A. Kuzmenko	1.6	0	0.68	1	27%	0
ANA O. Zellweger	1.5	1	0.27	1	7%	0
LAK A. Turcotte	1.5	0	0.40	0	13%	0
LAK J. Armia	1.4	0	0.41	0	17%	0
LAK J. Malott	1.3	0	0.18	0	11%	0
ANA R. Strome	1.2	0	0.36	1	12%	0
ANA R. Poehling	1.2	0	0.39	0	14%	0
LAK J. Edmundson	1.2	0	0.27	0	5%	0
ANA P. Mintyukov	1.2	1	0.36	0	8%	0
LAK T. Ward	1.1	1	0.35	0	13%	0
ANA R. Gudas	1.1	0	0.20	0	3%	0
LAK M. Anderson	1.0	2	0.27	0	6%	0
LAK A. Lee	1.0	1	0.25	0	11%	0
ANA I. Moore	0.9	0	0.19	0	4%	0
LAK B. Dumoulin	0.9	1	0.24	0	4%	0
ANA J. Viel	0.9	1	0.10	0	7%	0
LAK C. Ceci	0.9	1	0.23	0	4%	0
ANA T. Washe	0.8	0	0.23	0	12%	0
ANA J. Harkins	0.8	1	0.14	0	7%	0
ANA D. Helleson	0.7	0	0.17	0	5%	0
ANA R. Johnston	0.6	0	0.18	0	5%	0
LAK S. Helenius	0.6	0	0.16	0	9%	0

Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.