Game Recap: LAK 2, CBJ 3 (OT), January 25, 2025

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Game Recap

LAK2

Final/OTSat, Jan 25, 2025Every game that night

CBJ3

CBJ beat LAK 3-2 in overtime despite fewer good chances: 2.57 expected goals to 3.61. LAK outshot CBJ 33 to 24. K. Fiala led the way with 2 points (0 G, 2 A). E. Merzlikins stopped 31 of 33.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
LAK	1	0	1	0	2
CBJ	1	0	1	1	3

1st 9:24CBJZ. Werenski0.04 xG
1st 12:55LAKP. Danault0.19 xG
3rd 2:51CBJD. Fabbro0.03 xG
3rd 18:55LAKQ. Byfield0.28 xG
OT 3:45CBJK. Marchenko0.20 xG

Team Stats

LAKCBJ

33Shots on goal24

3.61Expected goals2.57

74Shot attempts49

305v5 shots on goal20

0/1Power play0/1

21Hits25

13Blocked shots23

2Penalty minutes2

6Giveaways9

10Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

LAK 3.61 xGCBJ 2.57 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

LAK32 on goal, 2 scored

CBJ24 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

LAK Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
K. Fiala	LW	0	2	2	2	2	0	-1	0	20:56	2:00
Q. Byfield	RW	1	0	1	4	0	0	0	0	20:47	1:56
A. Laferriere	RW	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	0	17:11	0:00
P. Danault	C	1	0	1	1	0	2	-1	0	16:35	0:02
A. Kopitar	C	0	0	0	3	2	1	+1	0	21:19	2:00
A. Kempe	RW	0	0	0	5	2	0	+1	0	20:28	2:00
T. Moore	LW	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	2	17:09	0:00
W. Foegele	LW	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	16:45	0:00
A. Turcotte	C	0	0	0	3	0	1	0	0	11:52	0:00
T. Jeannot	LW	0	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	10:23	0:00
T. Lewis	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	9:47	0:00
S. Helenius	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	9:09	0:00
M. Anderson	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	25:19	0:00
V. Gavrikov	D	0	0	0	3	0	2	0	0	24:50	0:00
J. Spence	D	0	0	0	1	3	0	+1	0	23:52	1:58
J. Edmundson	D	0	0	0	0	1	3	-1	0	21:02	0:00
B. Clarke	D	0	0	0	3	0	1	0	0	13:55	0:04
J. Moverare	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	10:00	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Kuemper	24	21	3	.875	61:41	OT loss
D. Rittich	0	0	0	–	0:00

CBJ Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
K. Marchenko	RW	1	0	1	2	2	0	+1	0	25:36	1:22
J. Danforth	RW	0	1	1	3	4	2	-1	0	16:46	0:00
K. Johnson	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	0	15:23	1:22
L. Del Bel Belluz	C	0	1	1	0	0	1	+1	0	12:53	0:38
J. van Riemsdyk	LW	0	1	1	1	1	0	+1	0	12:32	0:38
A. Fantilli	C	0	0	0	2	0	3	+1	0	25:58	1:22
D. Voronkov	LW	0	0	0	3	1	1	0	0	19:22	1:22
Z. Aston-Reese	LW	0	0	0	0	4	2	-1	0	16:36	0:00
M. Olivier	RW	0	0	0	1	3	1	-1	0	16:13	0:38
S. Kuraly	C	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	13:34	0:00
M. Pyyhtia	LW	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	12:13	0:00
Z. Werenski	D	1	0	1	4	0	3	0	0	28:00	1:22
I. Provorov	D	0	1	1	1	2	2	0	0	24:18	0:38
D. Fabbro	D	1	0	1	2	0	4	+2	0	22:49	0:00
D. Severson	D	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	2	15:27	0:00
D. Mateychuk	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	16:23	0:38
J. Johnson	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	10:58	0:00
J. Christiansen	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	4:39	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
E. Merzlikins	33	31	2	.939	63:20	Win
D. Tarasov	0	0	0	–	0:00

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	LAK 3.0, CBJ 2.8	LAK 2, CBJ 3
Total goals	5.8	5
Shots on goal	LAK 28.2, CBJ 27.0	LAK 33, CBJ 24
Win chance	LAK 54%	CBJ won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
CBJ Z. Werenski	3.2	4	0.80	1	15%	1
LAK K. Fiala	3.1	2	0.93	2	33%	0
LAK A. Kempe	3.1	5	1.01	0	39%	0
CBJ K. Marchenko	2.6	2	0.75	1	29%	1
LAK W. Foegele	2.4	3	0.59	0	24%	0
LAK T. Moore	2.2	2	0.62	0	24%	0
CBJ A. Fantilli	2.2	2	0.61	0	24%	0
CBJ D. Voronkov	2.2	3	0.65	0	28%	0
LAK Q. Byfield	2.1	4	0.69	1	22%	1
LAK A. Laferriere	2.1	2	0.51	1	22%	0
LAK P. Danault	1.7	1	0.61	1	21%	1
CBJ K. Johnson	1.7	1	0.58	1	21%	0
LAK B. Clarke	1.6	3	0.39	0	6%	0
CBJ L. Belluz	1.5	0	0.55	1	18%	0
CBJ J. Riemsdyk	1.5	1	0.45	1	17%	0
LAK A. Kopitar	1.5	3	0.89	0	26%	0
LAK V. Gavrikov	1.4	3	0.35	0	7%	0
LAK A. Turcotte	1.3	3	0.45	0	15%	0
LAK M. Anderson	1.3	1	0.29	0	7%	0
LAK J. Spence	1.3	1	0.38	0	6%	0
CBJ Z. Aston-Reese	1.2	0	0.24	0	12%	0
CBJ D. Fabbro	1.2	2	0.24	1	5%	1
CBJ J. Danforth	1.2	3	0.28	1	13%	0
LAK J. Edmundson	1.2	0	0.22	0	6%	0
CBJ M. Olivier	1.1	1	0.31	0	14%	0
CBJ I. Provorov	1.1	1	0.32	1	6%	0
LAK T. Lewis	1.1	0	0.19	0	9%	0
CBJ D. Severson	1.1	1	0.29	1	7%	0
CBJ S. Kuraly	1.0	1	0.25	0	12%	0
CBJ D. Mateychuk	1.0	1	0.23	0	5%	0
LAK T. Jeannot	0.9	0	0.26	0	13%	0
CBJ M. Pyyhtia	0.8	0	0.16	0	9%	0
CBJ J. Christiansen	0.7	0	0.12	0	2%	0
LAK S. Helenius	0.7	0	0.17	0	8%	0
LAK J. Moverare	0.7	0	0.12	0	3%	0
CBJ J. Johnson	0.5	1	0.09	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 24 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.